Will Kansas City's New Weapons Help or Hurt Isiah Pacheco in Fantasy Football?

Isiah Pacheco has had a fun two-year tenure with the Kansas City Chiefs.

The former seventh-round draft pick secured a starting spot at running back part way through his rookie season and went on to win a pair of Super Bowls. Last season, he scored nine total touchdowns and ran for 110-plus yards in three games. Despite missing a trio of contests, Pacheco served as a value pick in season-long fantasy.

But his draft stock is on the rise, and the Chiefs will come out with a new-look offense this season. Is Pacheco's price in fantasy football drafts too high, or is he primed to explode in his third season? Let's dive into his outlook.

Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Football Outlook

Pacheco's 2023 Season Recap

Despite a rookie season that had Pacheco leading all Kansas City rushers in attempts (170), yards (830), and touchdowns (5), he wasn't particularly high on draft boards in the ensuing year.

Heading into last season, Pacheco owned a 28.7 average draft position (ADP) at running back and was being taken with pick 72.0 on average.

He went on the record 935 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground and played a notable role in the passing game, notching 244 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.

These efforts were good for an RB16 standing despite participating in just 14 games. That's a pretty steep jump from his 28.7 ADP at the position. Had Pacheco played a full 17-game season, he would have theoretically finished as RB8 based on his 13.7 points per game average.

Pacheco's potential ceiling from last year indicates a top-10 finish at the position, and his impending third season could bring further growth.

Consequently, he is currently the 11th running back taken off the board in drafts at pick 36, per FantasyPros' consensus ADP data.

Will Pacheco make good on his ADP at running back, or should we look elsewhere on the board once the draft hits the mid-30s?

The New-Look Kansas City Offense

Patrick Mahomes and company may have pulled off a second straight Super Bowl victory, but we can't forget how uncharacteristically trying this offense looked in the regular season.

Travis Kelce had his lowest-performing year since 2015, Mahomes logged -5.8 touchdowns under expectation, and Justin Watson saw the third-most targets on the team.

Reinforcements were brought in to an exciting degree. Marquise Brown was inked to a one-year, $11 million contract, and Kansas City used their first-round draft pick on Xavier Worthy, who set a record-breaking 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the combine.

Plus, Kelce is still Kelce and Rashee Rice will look to build upon an awesome rookie debut.

The Chiefs have armored Mahomes with an array of targets, and the passing game is locked and loaded for success. A rising tide lifts all boats, and a domineering Kansas City group should leave Pacheco with an exciting workload.

Last season, the Chiefs went an underwhelming -- by Kansas City standards -- 9-5 in games with Pacheco. The sophomore averaged 15.7 carries for 71.9 yards across those wins but just 12.8 carries for 57.6 yards in the losses. The new-look Chiefs now have an 11.5 win total with -118 odds on the over.

Kansas City has moved on from Jerick McKinnon and will more or less send out a backfield that features just Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon gobbled up a low 5.5% red zone rush share, but even still, his absence should afford a bit more to Pacheco and reinforces what type of role the Chiefs are envisioning for #10.

We aren't short on reasons to like Pacheco. He's in somewhat of a world of his own in the backfield and could see individual growth in his third season. He's also managed just two receiving scores despite 57 receptions in his career, so he could be due for an uptick in that arena.

Last year, Pacheco was only afforded 14 games, five of which resulted in losses. Five of the nine wins were decided by one possession. The Chiefs are now destined for better regular-season success, so we should see a heavy reliance on the run game when Kansas City is holding down a big lead.

Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's season-long NFL projections expect Pacheco to rush for 1,257.94 yards and 8.55 touchdowns via 286.15 attempts. They also forecast him to log 283.05 yards and 2.14 touchdowns in the air. These projections assume that all players will participate in a full 17-game season.

All in all, these projections suit Pacheco as RB11, falling right in line with his 11.0 ADP at running back at pick 36.0.

I should note that there is a bigger scoring gap between RB11 and RB14 than there is between RB11 and RB5, so it wouldn't be a shock to see Pacheco not only manage a top-10 finish at the position but maybe even a top-5 finish.

Pacheco seems to be a value at pick 36. Given how he fits into Kansas City's offense, he bears some safety that isn't afforded to other backs projected near him.

The lack of in-team competition at running back is intriguing. If you think this, and Kansas City's ability to manage heavy leads and in turn utilize Pacheco to a higher degree, could result in a boisterous season, he could be worth claiming earlier than his ADP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.