Will Justin Jefferson Still Be a Fantasy Football Star Without Kirk Cousins?

Justin Jefferson has solidified himself as one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL since he entered the league in 2020. As a result of his elite talent and consistency, the All-Pro wideout for the Minnesota Vikings has been an early first-round pick in fantasy football drafts in recent years.

Having Kirk Cousins -- and continuity at the quarterback position -- certainly helped Jefferson maintain his status as a reliable option in fantasy football. Catching passes from Cousins helped Jefferson log WR6, WR4, and WR1 finishes in half-PPR league from 2020 to 2023.

Entering the 2024 season, Cousins is no longer a member of the Vikings, and Minnesota's starting signal-caller is still yet to be determined. Despite Cousins joining the Atlanta Falcons, Jefferson is still tied for the third-shortest odds to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (+1000).

Will Cousins' departure prove to be detrimental to Jefferson's value in fantasy? Or can Jefferson overcome the uncertainty at the quarterback position en route to yet another fantastic finish?

Let's take a look.

Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Outlook

Jefferson's 2023 Recap

It was a fast start to the 2023 season for Jefferson, who was the WR1 overall with 86.8 fantasy points and 21.7 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats from Week 1 to Week 4. Jefferson unfortunately suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5, landing him on injured reserve until returning in Week 14.

Upon his return, Jefferson made an early exit in Week 14 with a chest injury before settling in down the stretch. Over the final four weeks of the regular season, Jefferson was the WR3 overall and WR4 in fantasy points per game (18.4) during that span.

Amid Jefferson's ongoing injury woes, Cousins also missed nine games due to a season-ending Achilles ailment, giving us a chance to see Jefferson sans Cousins to conclude the regular season. It was a mixture of Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall targeting Jefferson with Cousins sidelined.

Considering that Jefferson still performed at an elite level -- although it was a small sample size -- without Cousins, there is optimism moving forward.

Who Is Jefferson Catching Passes From in 2024?

At the end of last season, Mullens emerged as the best quarterback for the Vikings with Cousins unavailable. Hall attempted only 16 passes in his two starts, and Dobbs logged a dismal -0.23 expected points added per drop back across his four starts for Minnesota, via NextGenStats.

Besides his fantasy success in the final four weeks of the season -- despite below-average quarterback play -- Jefferson also posted an elite 31.2% target share, 47.3% air yards share, and 3.07 yards per route run (YPRR). Those impressive metrics are undoubtedly signs that he can excel without Cousins.

Entering the upcoming season, the Vikings are expected to go with either rookie J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold at quarterback. All indications suggest that Darnold will begin training camp as the starter while Minnesota is in no rush to have McCarthy make his first career start.

While McCarthy and Darnold likely won't have the consistency of Cousins, they should be an upgrade over the trio of Mullens, Dobbs, and Hall.

Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Projection

At the moment, Jefferson is the WR4 and fifth overall player off of the board, according to FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) for half-PPR. The three wideouts going ahead of Jefferson in the majority of drafts are CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Ja'Marr Chase.

numberFire's fantasy football projections seem to agree that Jefferson is primed for a top-five finish again in 2024-25. With a 17-game season in mind for each player, the model is projecting Jefferson to accrue 111.6 receptions, 1,485.3 receiving yards, and 9.6 receiving touchdowns on 175.6 targets en route to a WR4 finish.

Regardless of who is operating the offense for the Vikings between McCarthy and Darnold, Jefferson is likely going to command a target share upwards of 30% and be effective when the ball comes his way. At the same time, he'll surely see plenty of looks in the red zone -- especially with T.J. Hockenson uncertain to be active to begin the year because of a season-ending knee injury.

It goes without saying that Jefferson can undoubtedly still excel in fantasy football sans Cousins. On the other hand, an overall WR1 outcome now becomes tougher to achieve for Jefferson with the Vikings leaning on an unproven duo of signal-callers. He's likely being taken in drafts about right where he should be.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.