Which Workouts Matter Most for Running Backs at the NFL Draft Scouting Combine?

The value of the NFL Draft Scouting Combine should be obvious at running back.

You want big guys who run fast. Simple, right?

But which metrics matter most? And how much should we care about them?

To answer that, I looked at running backs at the combine from 2010 to 2021 (meaning they've been in the league for at least four years) in Pro Football Reference's database. Then, I compared their workout data with the Approximate Value (AV, a stat PFR uses to quantify a player's value to the team) they produced across their first four seasons. This would tell me how much production they provided across the length of their initial rookie contract (outside of the fifth-year option for first-rounders).

There are obvious flaws here. AV is better at showing who earned playing time than who was elite, and not every running back does every workout (with some not doing any).

Still, being good enough to stay on the field matters, and we can at least get a general idea of which workouts were most important.

What did that data say? Let's check it out.

Key Workouts for Running Backs at the NFL Draft Combine

There are two different ways of examining this, and we'll go through both today.

First, I looked at the R-squared value between each running back's workout and the AV they produced their first four years. R-squared shows the predictiveness of a metric with zero being no relationship and one being a perfect correlation.

Here's the R-squared value between each of the six workouts in PFR's database and the first four years of AV for running backs who took part in those workouts. The "raw" column is that number straight up while the weight-adjusted column accounts for the player's weight at the combine.

None of these numbers is all that large, showing that plenty of things other than workouts dictate how well a player will perform in the NFL.

The two that stood out most were the 40-yard dash and broad jump, both adjusted for weight. Thus, if we're going to emphasize any workouts for running backs, those would get the nod.

The other method leads us to the same conclusion. The table below shows the average percentile rank for the 35 running backs who produced at least 25 AV in their first four years in this sample. By looking at the successes, we can see which range we want guys to be in if we're trying to hit home runs.

The percentile is where players ranked in each workout relative to other backs at the combine from 2010 to 2021. These are based on the weight-adjusted version of each metric.

Here, we do see the 40-yard dash and broad jump separate a bit more from the pack.

Those two do pop, subjectively, as well. Derrick Henry was 90th percentile in weight-adjusted 40 and 99th percentile in the broad jump. Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor had a 98th-percentile 40. Mid-round guys who hit like Alvin Kamara (98th percentile broad jump), Aaron Jones (92nd percentile broad), and David Johnson (94th percentile broad) also spiked in one of these areas. So even if it's not the end-all, be-all, it does make sense to value those two workouts most.

As you're watching the combine, let's go through some benchmarks. For a 215-pound running back to rank in the 70th percentile of weight-adjusted 40, he'd need to post roughly a 4.51. To be in the 70th percentile for the broad jump, he'd need to get roughly 10 feet, 1 inches or longer.

It's important to keep in mind that the overall correlation between workouts and NFL success isn't all that high. But while you're watching the backs, pay closest attention to the 40 and the broad jump and make sure you're adjusting for the player's weight while doing so.

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