Which NFL Teams Have the Toughest 2025 Schedules? Ranking the Five Worst

Optimism is bubbling for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears entering 2025.

They've got a new coach in Ben Johnson, new playmakers, and a rebuilt offensive line. The team has done the right things to put Williams in position to succeed.

There's only one problem.

Their schedule is an absolute killer.

Not only do the Bears face a difficult NFC North, but their cross-division assignments are against the NFC East and AFC North. They're not getting many cupcakes on the menu to prop Williams up.

The schedule is something teams can't control, and it can play a big role in influencing how their seasons play out. If you're trying to project a team's fortunes in the upcoming year, analyzing their schedule is a key component.

Which teams have the toughest schedules for 2025?

To answer this, I took my model's power rating for each team and used that to generate an expected win total for them. In other words, if they faced a neutral schedule, how many games would they win?

I can then compare that number to my model's actual win-total projection, showing us which teams get bumped up or down most based on the teams they're playing.

We'll run through those who -- like the Bears -- drew the short stick for 2025.

As a note, these projections don't yet account for byes, which will be announced with the full schedule release later this week.

As things stand, here are the five teams with the toughest schedules for 2025. You can also check out our ranking of which NFL teams have the easiest schedules for 2025.

Most Difficult NFL Schedules for 2025

1. New York Giants

The only team that could top the Bears is one that needs wins to keep its front office intact.

No pressure!

The New York Giants were always going to have a tough draw in a division featuring the two teams that played in last year's NFC Championship Game. But they also get an always-competitive Dallas Cowboys team twice to make things more grim.

Outside of the division, the Giants will face the NFC North and AFC West. In all, 10 of 17 games will be against 2024 playoff teams, and three more -- two with the Cowboys and one with the San Francisco 49ers -- are against teams that won 12 games in 2023.

Based on their roster, my model says the Giants should be projected for 6.38 wins this year. Instead, they settle in at 5.5, right in line with FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win total projection. That gap of 0.88 wins is the most in the league, dumping more cold water on Brian Daboll's and Joe Schoen's hopes of surviving the season.

2. Chicago Bears

The Giants barely edged out the Bears, who are 0.83 wins lower than you'd expect once you account for their schedule.

Their slate of road games is particularly brutal. Here's that murderer's row along with each of the team's 2025 win total at FanDuel.

As of now, I'd have the Bears as underdogs by more than a point and a half for each of those games. They could be favored against the Las Vegas Raiders, but they're no pushovers with Geno Smith in town.

They've got some easier home matchups, but overall, this schedule is a nightmare. There are a lot of scenarios where the team is tangibly better this year than they were last year, but it still doesn't translate to a bunch of wins.

I don't want to bet against Williams because the league is more fun if he's good. But I am seeing value in their win total under 8.5 at -135, and the schedule is a big reason why.

3. Cleveland Browns

As things stand, the Cleveland Browns have the lowest win total projection for me, and the slate of teams they'll face contributes to the pain.

The AFC North is tough enough as is, but they have to face the NFC North on top of that. They also lose a lot of win equity for one of their home games as the Buffalo Bills roll into town.

As things stand, I've got the Browns favored in just one game this year -- at home against the Tennessee Titans. If that winds up being their international opponent, that number of favored games would dip to zero.

This may not be the worst outcome for the Browns, who likely still need a long-term answer at quarterback and have two first-round picks next year. But if you're a Browns fan hoping for a quick reprieve from last year's misery, you may not get it.

4. Detroit Lions

For the first three teams, the schedule-related falloff is pretty drastic as all three lose 0.69 or more wins.

That number dips to 0.53 for the Lions, so this is where things flatten out. It's just not ideal for a team hoping to capitalize on a Super Bowl window.

The Lions have a lot of overlap with the Bears, minus having to play themselves. But as the divisional champs, their cross-over games are against other division winners in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. Although it hurts the Lions, that's going to set up some fun viewing for us as fans.

Even with this, I do still have interest in backing the Lions over 10.5 wins at +115. They should have better injury luck on defense, and the offensive infrastructure is still good despite the loss of Ben Johnson. That brain drain -- plus the schedule -- is at least enough to give me pause on betting the Lions at an aggressive number.

5. Dallas Cowboys

Sorry, Cowboys fans. The offseason Ls continue to pile up for a second straight year.

This is all a product of facing the top two teams in the NFC East twice plus the NFC North and the AFC West. The Cowboys' cross-over teams -- the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets -- aren't the most imposing duo.

The big issue for the Cowboys is they're projected to be in a ton of tight games. As things stand, I've got their win odds between 45% and 55% in 8 games, and they're at 56.3% in another. That's going to make them one of the more volatile teams to project.

Thus, every little edge adds up, and losing 0.52 wins relative to expectation due to the schedule hurts. I'm in line with the market, which has the Cowboys' win total at 7.5 with -135 on the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.