Home Run Predictions Today: Moniak, Bleday and a +600 Home Run Prop

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• JJ Bleday +330
• Alec Bohm +600
• Mickey Moniak +350

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks Today: Home Run Predictions for Dinger Tuesday

JJ Bleday to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Athletics vs. Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

In a JT vs. JJ battle, I like Bleday to come out on top.

J.T. Ginn is expected to start for the A’s, and he’s having a down year, recording a 4.42 SIERA with an elevated 10.7% walk rate. Lefties have tagged him for a .331 wOBA and 1.28 homers per nine.

Bleday — a former Athletic — is having a breakout campaign. He’s put up a career-best .350 wOBA with 19 homers, one shy of a career high in jacks. He loves hitting at home (.401 wOBA) and is excellent with the platoon advantage (.361 wOBA and 51.5% fly-ball rate), and both of those boxes are checked today.

Once Ginn is out of the game, Bleday will see an A’s bullpen that has the sixth-worst xFIP this season.

Alec Bohm to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Nationals vs Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

I’m really into the Philadelphia Phillies today for their home date with Zack Littell.

Littell owns a 4.98 SIERA and lowly 15.0% strikeout rate. He’s letting up a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine, and the Phils have hit three bombs against him over two outings this season (9 IP).

With Kyle Schwarber (+162) and Bryce Harper (+250) at really short HR odds, I’m turning to Alec Bohm.

Littell has been worse against lefty bats, but it’s not like he’s been all that strong against right-handed hitters, surrendering 1.34 tanks per nine and a 44.6% fly-ball rate in the split.

Bohm will also get to face a Washington Nationals bullpen that has the second-worst xFIP this year.

Of Bohm’s 13 home runs this season, 10 have come at home, and with him coming off a July in which he put up a respectable .313 wOBA with four long-balls, Bohm is one of my favorite dinger picks today.

Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Rays vs. Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Freddy Peralta is set to make his first start for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has to do it at Coors.

Peralta’s under-the-hood numbers aren’t as bad as his 4.99 ERA. With that said, he’s having a tough time with lefty bats, permitting a .351 wOBA and 1.60 homers per nine in the split.

That pushes me toward Mickey Moniak.

The former No. 1 overall pick back in the 2016 MLB Draft, Moniak has turned around his career since coming to the Colorado Rockies. Since the start of last season, he’s mashed 42 bombs with a .357 wOBA. At home versus RHPs is the best time to target Moniak as he has posted a .430 wOBA, 41.8% hard-hit rate and 50.9% fly-ball rate in the split in 2026.

Moniak produced a .378 wOBA with four HRs in July, and he can keep the good times rolling tonight.

Welcome to Dinger Tuesdays!

YOU CAN CHOOSE between a 50% Profit Boost Token or TWO 25% Profit Boost Tokens to use on a “To Hit a Home Run” wager(s) on any MLB Games taking place on August 4th, 2026!

See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.