The USA are justifiably favored and Covers.com backs them directly: "I'm backing the Americans as my top pick, and would play them up to -120." The gap in quality is significant — the USA are 24 FIFA ranking places above Paraguay — and the home advantage at SoFi Stadium in front of a sold-out LA crowd is a tangible factor.

The loss of Julio Enciso is the decisive team news item. Fox Sports confirms "Paraguay's star player, Julio Enciso, suffered an injury last week and is expected to miss this match." CBS Sports analyst Thomas is backing the USMNT, stating "the Americans should have too much quality for Paraguay to handle" and singling out Balogun: "When he's on, he's a rocket ship."

SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green is the top backer: "Paraguay's games averaged just 1.33 goals during their qualifying campaign. Nine of their 12 matches saw under 2.5 goals, including three 0-0 draws. The Paraguayans are happy to sit back, soak up pressure, and try to grind out results. It could take a while for the USMNT to break down this Paraguay defense, so under 2.5 goals looks appealing."

Pre-tournament modelling puts the probability of under 2.5 goals at approximately 59%, with the 1-0 or 2-0 USA win as the most commonly projected scoreline. Even in the worst-case scenario for the Under — a 2-1 USA win — the bet still cashes. The -166 price reflects how structurally likely this outcome is.

FanDuel Research specifically identified Pulisic as "the USA's best shot at breaking through Paraguay's strong defense," noting that against a side expected to defend deep, he will see plenty of touches in dangerous areas. He enters the tournament 33 goals in, needing just one to tie Eric Wynalda for fourth on the USA's all-time list.

The Goal or Assist at +120 is the best-value Pulisic prop. CBS Sports' SportsLine supercomputer puts his anytime goal probability alone at 32% — already close to even money. Add assist upside as the USA's chief creator and +120 is meaningful value. Bet365 backs this specifically, noting "+120 for Pulisic to either score or assist in Friday's showdown in Inglewood gets the green light."

FanDuel Research's own pre-tournament analysis highlighted Balogun, writing that "unlike his main competition in this market — Pulisic — Balogun will likely spend the vast majority of his time operating centrally in prime goal-scoring position" and that he is "an intriguing bet at these odds and may be in store for a breakout summer." He netted 19 goals and 5 assists in 43 games across all competitions for Monaco in 2025-26.

CBS Sports' top goalscorer expert backs Balogun as the top anytime pick for Friday, writing: "I'm expecting the Monaco man to open his account in Team USA's opener. Balogun and Giovanni Reyna scored against Paraguay in a 2-1 friendly victory in November." At +215 — the same price as Pulisic — backing the starting center-forward who directly scored against this exact opponent four months ago is sharp value.

All three legs share the same thesis: a tight, controlled USA victory. A 1-0 USA win — the most commonly projected scoreline — hits all three simultaneously. These legs positively correlate: a Balogun goal is more likely if USA win, and a USA win with only one goal is more likely given Paraguay's defensive structure.

• ⚽ USA Win (-105) — Home advantage, Enciso out, 24 FIFA places better. Covers.com top pick.
• ⚽ Under 2.5 Goals (-166) — Paraguay avg 1.33/game. 9 of 12 qualifying matches Under. Martin Green's top pick.
• ⚽ Balogun Anytime Scorer (+215) — Starting CF, 19 Monaco goals, scored vs Paraguay in November. CBS Sports top pick.

*SGP odds approximate — confirm combined price in FanDuel's parlay builder before wagering.

Home soil. Enciso OUT. 24 FIFA places better. Three straight wins over Paraguay. Best US attacking squad ever. Covers.com top pick; would back up to -120.

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Martin Green's top pick. Paraguay avg 1.33 goals/game qualifying. 9 of 12 games Under. Supercomputer: 59% probability. Most projected scoreline is 1-0. Even a 2-1 USA win cashes.

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Supercomputer: 32% goal probability alone. Add his assist upside and +120 captures his full attacking output. Bet365 backs this specifically. Best value Pulisic prop on the board tonight.

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The most commonly projected scoreline from multiple pre-tournament models is 1-0 to the USA. Covers.com's prediction is "Pulisic, Tillman and Balogun will create chaos inside the Paraguayan box with their rotations, and the USMNT will find a way through to get their Group D campaign off to a winning start." Paraguay's discipline and deep block prevent a more emphatic scoreline, but the quality gap — especially with Enciso absent — ultimately tells on home soil.