Our Prediction — USA 2-1 Turkey · USA wins but Turkey finally scores · SoFi LA home crowd 🇺🇸 2–1 🇹🇷

The USA enters having posted the best group stage numbers in the 48-team era — 6 goals in 2 games, 1 conceded, +5 GD. Turkey enters with 0 goals in 2 games, 62 shots, and 13 on target — the most wasted attacking output at the tournament. The tension is rotation: Balogun, Adams, A. Robinson and Richards are all on yellow cards with R16 spots on the line for each.

Despite the forced rotation, Pepi, Wright, Reyna, Weah, Aaronson and McKennie are all available and have WC minutes. Pochettino told press after Australia: he wants to win all three group games. SoFi Stadium will be packed with US fans for this farewell group game — the home crowd is a genuine 7th man factor.

Turkey, despite 0 goals, has real attacking talent: Çalhanoğlu (Inter, 105 caps, 22 goals), Güler (Real Madrid) and Yıldız (Juventus, highest Turkey xG at 0.95) haven't scored but are class players. Against a rotated USA back line, Turkey should finally register. Prediction: USA 2-1 — USA win but Turkey ends the tournament with a first goal.

⚠️ Pulisic DOUBTFUL calf · Balogun/Adams/Robinson/Richards YC risk — likely bench · Pepi starts · Freeman possible · Covers XI confirmed

Balogun ST ⚠️YC Wright ST Pulisic LW ⚠️doubtful McKennie CM ⚠️YC Adams CM ⚠️YC Freeman RB ⭐ xG 0.80 A. Robinson LB ⚠️YC Richards CB ⚠️YC Tillman AM

USA -110 primary pick — home crowd, group winners, Turkey 0 goals scored. $10 at -110 returns $19.09.

Balogun +155 — primary scorer if he starts. ⚠️ YC risk — check official lineup before betting.

ESPN FD confirmed +180. Ricardo Pepi (PSV, 19 goals last season) is the most likely ST starter if Balogun is rested due to YC risk. The go-to backup to Balogun. Haji Wright (+180) is an explosive bench impact option. If Balogun sits, back Pepi as the primary scorer at +180 ($10→$28).

Under case (CBS Eimer): 3 of 4 Group D games under 2.5 — USA 2-0 AUS, TUR 0-2 AUS, TUR 0-1 PAR. Rotated USA + unmotivated Turkey = low-tempo. Over case (Squawka/Covers): USA scored 6 goals in 2 games. Turkey scored 19 in WC qualifying and must attack against a rotated back line. Open game with both sides playing for pride creates goals. Our lean: slight Over given open nature of an eliminated Turkey attacking all out. $10 at +111 returns $21.10 either way.

Reyna +245 (ESPN FD): Scored vs Paraguay, Dortmund quality, likely starting CAM. Good value at +245 ($10→$34.50). Aktürkoğlu (~+275 Squawka explicit): Turkey's most dangerous winger against a rotated USA defense — if Turkey finally score, he's the route. BTTS-Yes: Squawka primary bet angle — "USA win with goals at both ends is the cleanest read." Check FD for BTTS-Yes price.