US Open Quarterfinals Best Bets, Including a FanDuel Promo 9/4/24

The US Open is into the second week, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the coming days. The quarterfinals wrap up on Wednesday.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the US Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a Reward Stack for those betting the US Open today!

Customers can receive one 30% Profit Boost for a LIVE wager and one 30% Profit Boost for ANY wager on US Open tennis matches happening September 4th or 5th!

How to Claim This Promo

You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button.

You’ll then be awarded the two tokens, which you can manually toggle-on when placing your bets. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, you can win even bigger on tennis bets with Same Game Parlays—and try new bets like Total Aces in a Match!

US Open Best Bets

Now, let’s get into the best bets on the US Open for September 4th.

Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula

Pegula +4.5 Games (-118)

This will be Jessica Pegula's seventh quarterfinal at a Grand Slam, but an 0-6 record at this stage hangs over her head. Unfortunately for her, she'll have to defeat world No. 1 Iga Swiatek to get over the hump, and Swiatek owns a 6-3 advantage in their head-to-head.

However, these two faced each other four times in 2023 and split those matches down the middle, so the outcome isn't a foregone conclusion. Pegula also enters this match having won 13 of her 14 matches on hard courts this summer, and her only loss was to tournament favorite Aryna Sabalenka in the Cincinnati final. She's yet to drop a set at this US Open, as well.

Of course, with this being Swiatek, she hasn't missed a beat since the Olympics (her only post-Paris loss was also versus Sabalenka), and she's won all her matches here in straight sets. Per Tennis Abstract, Iga has won 88% of her hard-court matches over the last 52 weeks, and with a track record like that, it isn't shocking to see her as a -335 favorite versus the American.

Massy Ratings gives Swiatek a 76% win probability while Tennis Abstract's model puts her chances a hair under 79%. With that in mind, it's difficult to pick Pegula straight-up.

Still, this is the best she's played all season, and last year's matches versus Swiatek shows she's capable of hanging with the Polish phenom. With the home crowd potentially being an X factor, the American should keep things competitive with perhaps an outside shot of pulling off the upset.

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev +4.5 (-110)

While it's exciting that we're guaranteed to see an American in this year's final from the other side of the draw, whoever wins this quarterfinal match will be the clear favorite to win the rest of the way.

This is Jannik Sinner's tournament to lose following the early exits of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. Despite a mid-season hip issue and his recent doping controversy, here he is in the quarterfinals with a 52-5 record and five titles in 2024. The winner of this year's Australian Open -- his first and only major championship -- Sinner has now reached at least the quarters of all four majors this season, and while he had to withstand a strong effort from American Tommy Paul in the last round (7-6, 7-6, 6-1), he's still lost just one set in the tournament.

Daniil Medvedev won the 2022 US Open and also has a great opportunity to add a second major to his tally. Despite losing both of his hard-court matches before this event, he's also dropped a single set through four rounds and is coming off an especially comfortable win over Nuno Borges where he lost just four games total.

These two have an unusual head-to-head history, as Medvedev leads 7-5, yet Sinner had won five in a row until Medvedev broke the streak at this year's Wimbledon in a five-set marathon. Jannik's triumph in the Australian Open final came against Daniil, and it probably isn't a coincidence that it also went five sets. In fact, if we look at all six matches over that sample, four of the six went to a deciding set and one other involved two tie breaks.

Tennis Abstract pegs Sinner for a 78% win probability, whereas Massey Ratings has him at 68%. The Italian's implied odds as a -275 favorite come in at 73%, splitting the difference between the two models.

Sinner has obviously been tough to beat this year, and the above numbers reflect that. But the lengthy track record between these two is littered with tight matches even as Sinner has gained the upper hand, which should give us confidence that Medvedev can cover this spread.

Over 18.5 Total Aces (-122)

These two aren't among the elite when it comes to aces, which is why this line is on the lower side.

Over the last 52 weeks, Sinner has averaged 7.2 aces per match (28th) while Medvedev has logged 7.1 per match (32nd). Per Tennis Abstract, the average ace rate among the top 50 players is 8.9%, and Jannik is slightly above that (9.5%), whereas Daniil is just below (8.2%).

Additionally, the average ace rate against in that sample is 7.7%, and the two more or less cancel each other out as returners. Sinner comes out above at 8.8% compared to Medvedev at 6.4%.

Despite all this, I like the chances of this battle going four or five sets, and if that's the case, we should see these two clear this low bar based on pure volume.

In their two five-set matches this year, they combined for 32 and 25 aces, and even in their two three-setters at non-majors last season, they totaled 20 and 18. Their recent encounters are a promising sign that this is an intriguing over to target.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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