Uruguay are the unanimous pick. Their xG advantage (1.72-0.66) and 22 second-half shots against Saudi Arabia shows consistent chance creation. Against Cape Verde — who sit even deeper and have far less attacking threat than Saudi Arabia — Uruguay's dominance of possession and aerial set-pieces should eventually tell. FOX Sports: "Take Uruguay -1.5 — it will get all three here."

FanDuel Research explicitly names this as their primary prop: Uruguay's midfield led by Valverde should dictate the tempo and create enough chances for two first-half goals. Bielsa will push for an early goal from minute 1 — pressing higher, committing Valverde into more advanced positions, using Uruguay's physical superiority at corners and free kicks. An early Uruguay goal makes this a very different game from Spain's 0-0.

Valverde at +155 on FanDuel is the standout scorer bet. FOX Sports explicitly names this as their prop pick for this exact game at this exact price. At Real Madrid, he's evolved into a genuine goal threat — arriving late into the box from the right and driving direct shots. Against Saudi Arabia he had 3 shots (2 on target). Cape Verde's deep block is specifically vulnerable to late-arriving midfielders who aren't tracked. Covers notes this is "playable up to +120" — FanDuel's +155 is considerably better value. $10 at +155 returns $25.50.

Nunez at +125 on FanDuel is the classic bounce-back scorer pick. When a striker of his calibre misses chances in one game, he tends to take them in the next. Note: Vinas at +125 (same FanDuel price) is equally valid if confirmed starting ahead of Nunez. Back whichever Bielsa selects as the central forward today. $10 at +125 returns $22.50.

Our lean: Over 2.5 +120 for the positive-odds value if Uruguay win comfortably. But the Under case is genuine and the historically safer play.

Uruguay's second-half dominance vs Saudi Arabia showed consistent chance creation, and against Cape Verde — who had just one shot on target vs Spain — the quality gap is vast. Bielsa will adjust to press higher and create more first-half chances. Uruguay's physicality and aerial threat from set pieces represents a type of challenge Cape Verde haven't faced this tournament. Sports Interaction predicts 3-0; FOX Sports confirms Uruguay -1.5. The Under 2.5 counter-argument from CBS/Racing Post is legitimate but loses force when Uruguay's specific attacking data is examined.