UFC Vegas 99 Best Bets: Hernandez vs. Pereira

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 99 Betting Picks

Austen Lane vs. Robelis Despaigne

Despaigne by KO/TKO in Round 1 (-115)

This is just a great example of arbitrage in sports betting. Most other domestic sportsbooks have Robelis Despaigne's first-round knockout at -135 or higher, so FanDuel -- easily -- has the most appetizing number on the market.

It's certainly one I was happy to snag at -110 on Thursday because, to me, it seems to be a vast majority of the Cuban's win condition here. Although Despaigne lost to Waldo Cortes-Acosta (5-1 UFC) via decision in his last fight, the former Olympic bronze medalist in taekwondo won his previous five MMA bouts by first-round knockout. Four of those came within the first minute.

Austen Lane isn't a prime candidate to avoid being the next "The Big Boy" victim. All five of Lane's pro losses are via knockout, and four of those came in the first round. He's yet to show consistent efficiency getting takedowns (20% accuracy) or endurance (zero career fights to a decision) to replicate Cortes-Acosta's path to victory.

I was unsure how to bet this fight...until FanDuel dropped this sweet deal. I'd take it up to -125 (or 55.6% implied).

Jessica Penne vs. Elise Reed

Penne to Win (+146)
Penne by Submission (+480)

This is likely the bottom of the barrel at women's strawweight, but UFC veterans Jessica Penne and Elise Reed have been around long enough to model. That's good enough for me.

Penne's been around so long that she enters this fight at the ripe age of 41, which the model does penalize her for compared to Reed (33). However, Penne regularly has shown the path to take advantage of Reed's awful 42% takedown defense. She attempts 5.86 mat returns per 15 minutes and lands a good enough clip (21%) to forecast her for 1.98 in this fight.

That might be all it takes. Reed has been submitted by all fighters she's faced averaging at least 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Penne (0.6) fits in the group.

This fight is still -225 to go the distance as the most likely outcome -- but that's probably if Reed wins it. I've got Penne 52.1% likely to win this bout, and 14.3% of the time, it comes via submission. Her moneyline is the better bet, but I've got to sprinkle submission until the favorite proves she can survive on the mat.

Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda

Elkins to Win (-106)
Elkins to Win in Round 2 (+850)
Elkins to Win in Round 3 (+1100)

Nothing screams a UFC Apex card like the featured prelim between two warriors approaching 40.

Darren Elkins is already there but argued age is just a number with five takedowns and two submission attempts to drown T.J. Brown (3-5 UFC) in the third round of his last fight. Elkins' relentless volume of takedown (8.14) and submission (1.1) attempts per 15 minutes comes with notorious endurance that never quits. It's the exact opposite of what you'll find with Daniel Pineda.

Only 2 of Pineda's 44 career MMA fights have gone the distance, and he lost both of them. "The Pit" is a notoriously quick starter that becomes a heavy bag as the fight proceeds, entering with poor striking (44%) and takedown (48%) defense overall.

While it's possible the slight favorite gets "The Damage" out of there quickly, Elkins has only lost thrice in a 28-fight UFC career in the first round, and each fighter that got him has at least nine UFC wins. Pineda (5-7 UFC) just isn't that caliber of fighter.

I've got Elkins modeled at 55.6% likely to win Saturday's fight. The most likely outcome is a decision, but I'll sprinkle these longshot marks opposite Pineda's fleeting cardio that he can find yet another late finish.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira

Pereira to Win (+110)
Pereira to Win in Round 1 (+600)
Pereira to Win in Round 2 (+600)

This middleweight main event is a fascinating turning point for two of the division's dark horses. As a fan of both guys, I listened exclusively to my model on a betting verdict.

Anthony Hernandez is one of the UFC's true grinders. Usually offset in athleticism and striking prowess, "Fluffy" complies 6.62 takedowns and 3.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes to -- similarly to Elkins at featherweight -- drown opponents late. All five of Hernandez's UFC finishes have come outside the first round.

He'll meet his opposite in "The Demolidor," Michel Pereira. Pereira has amassed a 3-0 record since moving up to this division, and all of his wins have come inside one minute. That's not to say he's not built for the long haul, though. Pereira has a 4-1 UFC record in fights that went the full distance.

That, plus Pereira's elite 94% takedown defense, have me preferring the hot-starting underdog. His striking success rate (+1.46) trumps Hernandez's (+0.86), he has lethal body shots that have crumpled Fluffy in previous fights, and don't forget about his own submission danger (0.8 attempts per 15 minutes) as the American will expectedly close distance.

Modeling Pereira at 48.7% likely to win, I'd take any number better than +105. It's also logical to take an early-finish prop for Michel knowing this fight is -650 to not go the distance, and we know he'll likely be at an endurance deficit throughout the middle (and end) of five rounds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.