3 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for North Carolina vs. San Diego State

On Tuesday night, we get a play-in matchup between teams that have been in two of the past three the national title games as San Diego State faces off with North Carolina.

To see thoughts on other games, check out our full men's college basketball tournament predictions page. But for San Diego State vs. North Carolina, here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds.

Betting Picks for North Carolina vs. San Diego State

North Carolina -3.5 (-110)

North Carolina, a team with a measly one Quad-1 victory, is taking a lot of heat right now as a squad the masses are saying shouldn't be in the field. While there are some valid criticisms of UNC's resume, the Tar Heels can't -- per the betting odds -- be the worst at-large team in the field if they are 3.5-point favorites over San Diego State.

UNC doesn't have many top-tier wins, but they rate out as a better team than San Diego State. KenPom slots the Heels 33rd and SDSU 46th. Torvik has the gap even bigger, placing UNC 36th and San Diego State 53rd.

UNC's biggest weakness is defense as it ranks 53rd in adjusted D, per KenPom, compared to 22nd in offense. But San Diego State doesn't have the offensive firepower to capitalize as KenPom rates the Aztecs' offense 111th. They're the worst-rated offense to receive an at-large bid.

Offensively, the Heels are playing their best ball of the season right now with Torvik ranking them 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency over their past 10 games.

Plus, if you want to take a stroll down narrative street, we saw a similar situation to this one play out with UNC back in 2022 as the Tar Heels snuck into the tourney as an 8 seed -- likely lucky to get an 8 -- and then went on a run to the title game. In its first tourney game that year, North Carolina throttled 9 seed Marquette by 32 points.

All in all, UNC rates out as the better side, is peaking offensively and might have a little extra motivation to quiet everyone who says they shouldn't be in the field.

First-Half Under 66.5 Points (-104)

These play-in games tend to be nervy, low-scoring affairs -- especially early on.

Last year, the two play-in games between at-large teams totaled 50 and 54 first-half points. I think this matchup will have a low-scoring first half, as well.

While we touched on the Tar Heels' offensive exploits in the previous section, they're in for a touch matchup as the Aztecs are darn near elite defensively. KenPom ranks SDSU 13th in adjusted defense, and Torvik has them ranked 14th. The Aztecs have allowed 70-plus points in a game just twice over their last 13 contests.

UNC's offense has mostly been kept in check by top-level defenses. The Heels have played four games against top-20 defenses since the start of February -- three versus Duke and one against Clemson. The Heels totaled 70, 65, 69 and 71 over those four games.

In addition to a quality defense, San Diego State plays slowly (245th adjusted tempo) and isn't very good on O (111th). They can be the drivers of this first-half under if they can impose their will early on.

RJ Davis Over 15.5 Points (-118)

The one weakness of the San Diego State defense is that it gives up a lot of three-point attempts. That should be music to RJ Davis' ears.

The veteran Tar Heels' guard is taking 6.5 three-point tries per game after jacking up 7.7 triples per night a year ago. In short, he's not shy about pulling from deep, and this is a great matchup for him to do just that.

As good as SDSU is on defense, the Aztecs emphasize stopping penetration and are willing to give up three-point attempts to keep the paint locked down. San Diego State allows a 47.0% three-point attempt rate, the ninth-highest mark in the country.

Davis is averaging 17.0 points per game for the campaign. In the four aforementioned games against top-20 defenses (Clemson and Duke), Davis averaged just 14.5 points per game, but that mark is weighed down by an eight-point outing versus Duke in the ACC Tournament. If you remove that game, Davis averaged 16.7 over the other three contests in the split.

Davis played two games against a team in the top 20 for highest three-point attempt rate allowed -- both against Wake Forest -- and netted 23 and 21 points, taking 15 threes across the two games.

This is a good matchup for Davis to get going from beyond the arc, and after he played 37 and 38 minutes the past two games, we can rest assured that Davis will be out there a ton on Tuesday night.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.