UFC

UFC Vegas 92: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
UFC Vegas 92: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC Vegas 92: Barboza vs. Murphy, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Emily Ducote vs. Vanessa Demopoulos

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Emily Ducote-385 $19 5' 2"63"-1.054.26
Vanessa Demopoulos+290 $11 5' 2"59"-1.622.49

As someone who has backed Emily Ducote in each of her first three UFC bouts, this line makes no sense.

Ducote should be favored to beat Vanessa Demopoulos, but her strength of victory leaves so much to be desired. Ducote's two wins have come over Jessica Penne and Ashley Yoder, who sport a combined 5-13 record with plenty of inactivity since the beginning of 2015.

Unfortunately, Ducote's been thrown to ranked fighters in her other two bouts, amassing a -131 striking differential against them in decision losses. There are a lot of tools I like, including a 48% striking accuracy with excellent striking (56%) and takedown (92%) defense. I'd just like to see it become bonafide against better competition.

On the other hand, Demopoulos has defied the odds to post a 4-3 record. Her reach (59") is the smallest on strawweight's active roster, and it's left her with a -1.62 striking success rate (SSR) behind poor striking accuracy (43%) and defense (43%). "Lil' Monster" has gritted out the wins on control time and a sneaky submission game (0.7 attempts per 15).

Ducote's excellent takedown D makes it hard to see Demopoulos dominating in that realm, but we've also got no sample of her on her back should it somehow get there. Plus, the four-inch reach difference here is actually one of Vanessa's more manageable ones thus far.

In a fight -320 to go the distance, I'm not sure how -- given the state of MMA judging -- one of them is -385 to win it.

Betting Verdict

  • My model actually slightly favors Demopoulos here on the basis of grappling upside and recent form, but some of those "recent form" wins for her were close calls. While disagreeing with that verdict, I do agree Demopoulos' moneyline (+290) is absolutely the side of value to bet here.
  • The model has this fight 86.9% likely to go the distance -- as 10 of these ladies' 11 combined fights have. Demopoulos' submission danger is the only thing that would disrupt that prognostication.

DFS Verdict

  • Ducote's pace is solid, topping 85 FanDuel points in each of her decision wins. However, a step up in competition and a lofty $19 salary seem to point toward the underdog ($11) being the more useful side in DFS.

Kleidison Rodrigues vs. Alatengheili

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Kleidison Rodrigues-158 $18 5' 5"67"2.733.89
Alatengheili+128 $13 5' 5"66"-2.152.46

The flyweight-to-bantamweight transition is difficult, and Kleidison Rodrigues is one of two fighters on this card that will try to make it work.

The Brazilian is already 0-1 after Farid Basharat (4-0 UFC) submitted him in the first round last September. It's hard to evaluate his promise when his 1-1 flyweight sample was also uninspiring. Rodrigues lost a fight exclusively at distance to CJ Vergara (3-3 UFC) before knocking out Shannon Ross (0-3 UFC) while missing weight in the process. Ross ceded seven knockdowns in four UFC-affiliated bouts as one of the most fragile fighters to ever grace the octagon.

Kleidison's offense has been great, landing 5.48 significant strikes per minute with 62% accuracy -- but a bulk of that damage went to Ross. His striking (48%) and takedown (63%) defense are firm question marks entering this bout with Alatengheili.

While it's easy to look at a -2.15 SSR for "The Mongolian Knight" and write him off, a bulk of that damage came to superior competition. Casey Kenney (5-3 UFC) and Chris Gutierrez (8-3-1 UFC) posted a +135 striking differential against him with all other fights much more competitive.

Overall, Alatengheili has still been responsible defending strikes (58%) with a pronounced wrestling game, landing 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid accuracy (42%).

That could be his clear path against the smaller Rodrigues. He's beaten three multi-time UFC winners with a combined nine takedowns in those fights. However, I also wouldn't discount his power on the feet in his natural weight class.

Betting Verdict

  • Rodrigues' profile is frighteningly questionable if you remove the rout of Ross, so I have no problem backing Alatengheili's moneyline (+128) at plus money.
    • I think it's the best path given Rodrigues' submission vulnerability and his own history of wins by KO/TKO or decision. Anything is on the table.
  • This fight is -190 to go the full distance, which is in line with divisional trends. Both have just one career win by early finish; I have no definitive ruling in regards to the total.

DFS Verdict

  • Desperate to save salary when possible, Alatengheili ($13) is an obvious choice. In addition to racking up takedown points, I think he'll be competitive at distance.

Piera Rodriguez vs. Ariane Carnelossi

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Piera Rodriguez-230 $18 5' 3"63"0.483.40
Ariane Carnelossi+184 $12 5' 2"61"-1.682.57

Though some might be concerned laying juice outside the rankings at 115, Piera Rodriguez sits in a great position this weekend.

Rodriguez is coming off her first UFC loss to Gillian Robertson (10-6 UFC). Robertson is the all-time leader in 125-pound finishes (7), so that loss to a stronger athlete was somewhat understandable. Before that, "La Fiera" punked the entry level of 115, posting eight takedowns and a +33 striking differential to coast to decisions over Sam Hughes and Kay Hansen.

Landing 3.31 takedowns per 15, she'll look to impose her grappling on Ariane Carnelossi's stand-off-the-page 8% takedown defense. Yes -- 8%. However, I wouldn't discount Rodriguez's +0.48 SSR winning at distance when Carnelossi's striking accuracy (43%) and defense (40%) are also poor.

A small, low-level card like this unfortunately brings out some candidates to be cut, and Carnelossi is likely on a shortlist somewhere with her two wins coming over fighters a combined 0-8 in UFC. She has yet to beat a winner, but in fairness, the other two she fought -- Loopy Godinez and Angela Hill -- ended up being ranked fighters.

The problem was her performance in those wins. She ceded three takedowns to Liang Na (0-4 UFC) before Na's gas tank expired, and she was 21 strikes behind at distance to Istela Nunes (0-4 UFC). Struggling with those two in any capacity is a poor sign.

I'm expecting Rodriguez to be the stronger fighter in both areas, so a -230 moneyline isn't too shabby.

Betting Verdict

  • I used Rodriguez's moneyline (-230) in a parlay earlier this week but would only take her up to -200 now. Carnelossi could have improved a great deal in over two years off, but that rust is also an issue.
  • This fight is -210 to go all 15 minutes, but the bout has ended early in three of Carnelossi's four fights. She's a sloppy fighter that relies on physicality, which usually provides more of a definitive outcome than usual at women's strawweight.

DFS Verdict

  • Though avoiding Rodriguez ($18) at MVP, she's one of the best flex plays of the week. With tremendous win equity, her opponent's defensive shortcomings are conducive to fantasy points.

Abus Magomedov vs. Warlley Alves

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Abus Magomedov-290 $19 6' 2"78"-1.632.48
Warlley Alves+225 $12 5' 11"72"-0.962.79

Tenures don't come much more enigmatic than Abus Magomedov's thus far.

The promotion clearly believes the German has skill. After a knockout of Dustin Stoltzfus (2-4 UFC) in seconds, Magomedov was thrust all the way into a main event against future 185-pound champ Sean Strickland. After a strong first round, Magomedov wilted, losing via second-round TKO. Those endurance issues once again materialized in a slow-churning loss to Caio Borralho -- also ranked at 185 -- in his next bout.

Therefore, it's really tough to guess where he stacks up outside the rankings with obvious cardio problems. Magomedov's -1.63 SSR has largely been dented after he's become tired, but his striking (54%) and takedown (100%) defense seem solid to this stage. Warlley Alves is a fascinating next step for him.

With similar issues, the Brazilian veteran has been finished outside the first round in four of his last seven fights. Making his second start at middleweight could correct those issues, though. Alves has used modest power (0.62% knockdown rate) and a lethal submission game (0.9 attempts per 15 minutes) to finish six of his eight UFC wins. He's also 2-3 in fights that went the distance, which is significantly more of a successful sample as the fight goes later than Abus has.

Alves' -0.96 SSR isn't ideal, but it's well-tested and superior. Plus, he's posted 2.70 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and landed exactly half of them, so he's the one of these two fighters with grappling upside.

With a fight easily projected to not go the distance (-380), it's pretty simple to lean Alves' historical finishing danger is a bit undervalued at this price.

Betting Verdict

  • I couldn't imagine laying Magomedov's moneyline (-290) with similar endurance issues and a smaller, less successful sample. I'd imagine he is the more likely fighter to win if this went to a decision, but that's a huge "if".
  • Over 1.5 rounds (+110) is my favorite bet in this fight as both combatants look to protect their gas tank.

DFS Verdict

  • True value plays to be excited about don't exist on this card, but Alves ($12) will be one I target. I just can't feel good about Magomedov at a $19 salary when he's crumbled in consecutive fights within this same weight class.

Melissa Gatto vs. Tamires Vidal

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Melissa Gatto-355 $21 5' 5"69"0.852.96
Tamires Vidal+270 $10 5' 6"68"-0.282.82

There is one factor that will dictate everything in this fight: size.

When looking at resumés, experience, and the analytics behind the performances, Melissa Gatto is simply a better fighter than Tamires Vidal. The question will be if Vidal's size is enough to keep her at bay.

Gatto's lone two UFC losses have come inside the 125-pound rankings to Ariane da Silva and Tracy Cortez, but she's taking this fight on short notice to get paid after her fight with Viktoriia Dudakova fell through last month. The Brazilian was expected to be a grappling ace but has surprised at distance with a +0.85 SSR while struggling to secure takedowns (21% accuracy).

In the loss to Cortez, her takedown D (63%) was an issue, but Vidal has zero career attempts. "Tratora" prefers to slug it out on the feet, which is why I believe Gatto -- never finished inside the distance -- was willing to take this battle.

Vidal's sample against the very bottom of the bantamweight division leaves quite a bit to be desired. She's posted a -0.28 SSR with a porous 40% takedown D, needing a flying knee to maintain a 1-1 record. She's yet to beat another UFC winner.

Speed, level of competition, experience, grappling upside, and efficiency all seem to favor Gatto in this bout. While Vidal's 1.30% knockdown rate in the tiny sample could be a path for her to win, I'm not optimistic she's the first to stop Gatto when da Silva -- a two-time UFC winner by finish -- could not.

Betting Verdict

  • The weight dimension of this fight makes Gatto's moneyline (-355) a dicey proposition, but I have been looking to back Gatto's submission prop (+220) and will do so here.
    • Four of her six pre-UFC wins were subs, but injuries and striking success have made it not necessary to deploy in UFC. Gatto submitted Karol Rosa (6-3 UFC) in 2018 before Rosa submitted Vidal in 2019. The path is there.

DFS Verdict

  • Gatto ($21) is a solid flex play, but it could get ugly in terms of scoring fantasy points quickly if Vidal's size is an issue. There are three better MVP candidates to come.

Oumar Sy vs. Tuco Tokkos

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Oumar Sy-450 $22 6' 5"84"0.000.00
Tuco Tokkos+330 $8 6' 4"75"-3.294.86

Luckily for me, this fight of newcomers got a bit easier to forecast on Tuesday.

Antonio Trocoli fell out of this fight with Oumar Sy, so regional veteran Tuco Tokkos will step in for him. The problem? Tokkos has been in and around large promotions enough to know he's not great.

Tokkos' three pro losses came from a combination of Bellator (0-2) and UFC's Road to the UFC program in Asia, where he was flattened by Zhang Mingyang (1-0 UFC). He complied a -3.29 SSR with poor striking accuracy (40%) and defense (43%) in the one UFC-affiliated start.

Therefore, this is largely a "fraud check" for the Frenchman Sy, who enters as a highly touted, well-rounded prospect.

Sy -- oddly no relation to the former PFL champion -- has seven wins by finish in eight pro fights, and he is no one-dimensional striker with three by submission. Sy's most notable test showed off some nasty ground-and-pound attacks, as well.

Of course, the upside with Sy is his size, standing an absurd 6'5" and matching Jon Jones' dubious reach (84") in this same division. If there was a comparison I'd give to his varied skillset and length, it's likely the former champion.

I am largely useless here without a data sample on Sy, but Tokkos' poor one doesn't inspire much hope the UFC is derailing Sy's hype train on five days' notice. Tokkos likely has his next chance on a full camp in mind.

Betting Verdict

  • Sy's well-rounded skillset leaves all options on the table, and he's -450 to win with no props for the short-notice bout. I'm officially recommending a pass in betting markets.

DFS Verdict

  • Given that lofty number mentioned, here's where my exposure to Sy ($22) will be had. He's an excellent prospect with an 88% pro finishing rate.

Tom Nolan vs. Victor Martinez

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Tom Nolan-500 $23 6' 3"73"0.826.16
Victor Martinez+360 $9 5' 8"70"1.205.53

Debuts don't get much worse than Tom Nolan's.

As roughly a -360 favorite, Nolan went out in 63 seconds to Nikolas Motta (2-2 UFC). The Aussie striker's 47% striking defense didn't bite him on DWCS, but it did against Motta in the big show. The "good" of the slugger is that he's still landed 10.27 significant strikes per minute with 56% accuracy in these firefights.

We know very little about him, yet he's a -500 favorite here once again, but that's because his debut is essentially a wash compared to Victor Martinez's. In fact, you could argue Martinez's was much worse.

"The Brick" was the first knockout victim of grappler Jordan Leavitt's pro career. We didn't really know Leavitt (4-3 UFC) had power at all to that stage. He was dropped in his DWCS appearance, as well, so the durability issues are more than prevalent entering this projected scrap with Nolan.

Both sets of statistics here hold minimal weight when they were accrued against non-UFC foes, but Martinez's +1.20 SSR, 50% striking accuracy, and 54% defense are all superior. He also landed a takedown on two attempts during DWCS.

This fight won't be getting my hard-earned dollars, but a decision has to be made in the fantasy setting. It's hard for me to not favor Nolan there when his knockout was less surprising, and his seven inches of height and three inches of reach are a physical mismatch in what could be an ugly, low-level bout.

Betting Verdict

  • Without true tape analysis in my skillset, these are the fights for me to avoid. These statistics here could be horribly misleading without a measuring stick, and both fighters have questionable durability.

DFS Verdict

  • I had a much higher evaluations of Nolan ($23) than Martinez, who I wagered against, entering their respective debuts. His athleticism and size should be useful in a firefight; I see him as an extremely volatile MVP candidate with unlimited upside.

Angela Hill vs. Luana Pinheiro

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Angela Hill-144 $17 5' 3"64"0.503.59
Luana Pinheiro+118 $13 5' 2"62"-0.493.38

How on Earth does Angela Hill cover -144 here?

"Overkill" Angie Hill is one of my favorites, but it's because she's been undervalued as the underdog in seven straight fights. Hill has gone to a decision -- win or loss -- in each of her last 11. Hill's miniscule knockdown rate (0.16%) and non-existent grappling has left her fighting for points on the scorecards. That'll only be the case moving forward at 39 years old.

Don't get me wrong; Hill's striking accuracy (50%) and defense (61%) can absolutely win her another decision here. Factoring in those elements, my model still likes Luana Pinheiro's chances here as a 'dog.

Pinheiro's 62% defense can keep pace even a 41% accuracy is much lower, but the judo specialist brings a certain physicality that could bother Angie. She's posted 2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes with 40% accuracy.

Her first UFC setback came last fight against Amanda Ribas (7-4 UFC), who is competing in the top 10 at both 115 and 125 pounds. There was no shame in that setback -- especially considering Pinheiro won Round 1.

This seems like a classic market overreaction to me. Hill cashed as a 'dog against Denise Gomes (2-2 UFC), and Pinheiro lost as one facing Ribas. In a vacuum, Pinheiro's age and versatility are valuable here.

Betting Verdict

  • My model has Pinheiro (-145) as its largest favorite of model-eligible fights this week. Hill's previous wins against poor competition aren't graded as highly when Luana has key advantages in age, grappling upside, and fight-ending danger behind a better knockdown rate (0.71%).
  • Hill's tendency for distance has this fight 73.3% likely to go all 15 minutes. Of the remaining 26.7%, Pinheiro (22.4%) has a vast majority of the finishing equity. I'd play her inside-the-distance prop (+490) before under 2.5 rounds (+290).

DFS Verdict

  • Pinheiro ($13) makes even more sense in this realm with the hefty odds that any upside from this fight would be in her favor.

Adrian Yañez vs. Vinicius Salvador

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Adrian Yanez-430 $21 5' 7"70"0.423.69
Vinicius Salvador+320 $10 5' 7"70"-0.613.42

Sometimes, an "easy" UFC matchup is quite a bit of pressure. If Adrian Yañez can't get back on track this weekend, things are looking pretty grim for him.

Yañez's first foray into the UFC rankings was a challenging one. He was knocked out by Rob Font (head strikes) and Jonathan Martinez (leg kicks) in consecutive fights. Many -- including myself -- were bullish on the Houstonian after knockouts in five of his first six UFC-affiliated appearances, but his +0.42 SSR as it stands is fairly plain.

With that said, Yañez pushes a nice pace of 15.77 significant strikes attempted per minute. Though his accuracy (39%) leaves a bit to be desired, the boxer's 57% defense is responsible. Vinicius Salvador is also a one-dimensional striker, but Yañez's 100% takedown D is undented to this stage if the Brazilian tries to implement that gameplan.

Salvador will make his first appearance at 135 after an 0-2 stint at flyweight where he missed weight in his final try. As discussed with Kleidison Rodrigues, the 125-pound division isn't as strong, so a -0.61 SSR is a bad sign entering this fight with an experienced 135er. However, perhaps the lack of a weight cut could improve Salvador's output.

This was the easiest fight to call on the card for me. Yañez has feasted on unranked competition, and this is an unranked competitor now moving up in weight. Salvador's 49% striking D is a walking red flag entering this bout with one of UFC's better boxers -- even if Yañez is limited in terms of kicks and grappling at the highest level.

Betting Verdict

  • Though this price isn't outstanding, Yañez's striking should carry him past an opponent whose only UFC-affiliated win came over an opponent now 0-4 in those settings. Moving up weight without any tangible success generally isn't a good sign.
  • Salvador has two pro knockout losses to three decision losses. Expecting a bit of length, I'm playing Yañez's second-round KO (+500) and third-round KO (+850) props. He's shown modest durability -- but that was at 125 pounds.

DFS Verdict

  • Yañez ($21) pushes such an excellent pace that he could pay off in a decision, but a 1.94% knockdown rate means Salvador will do well to see one. My life would be a lot easier if more cards had this type of MVP candidate.

Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Themba Gorimbo-142 $16 6' 1"77"0.632.74
Ramiz Brahimaj+116 $14 5' 10"72"-1.613.04

The line movement on this fight is hysterical.

There isn't a sport where closing line value (CLV) means less -- if evident for no other reason than my 1-5 record on those moneyline wagers last week. Ramiz Brahimaj has gotten a shortened from +164 on Sunday to +116 on Friday, and it's ridiculous. This fight is on the main card for Themba Gorimbo, a friend of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson.

"The Answer" Gorimbo's UFC sample is small -- but mighty. After a short-notice submission loss to A.J. Fletcher (1-3 UFC), Gorimbo controlled Takashi Sato for 75.0% of their bout for a decision win, and he knocked out Pete Rodriguez in just 32 seconds. Overall, he's posted a +0.63 SSR and an impressive 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Brahimaj has won all 10 of his pro fights by submission, but the two UFC opponents he's subbed are a combined 1-5 with the promotion and have since been cut. I was throughly unimpressed as he ceded nearly 11 minutes of control to a 37-year-old Court McGee, and Max Griffin (8-8 UFC) easily stuffed his wrestling advances prior to a second-round TKO.

I certainly do see the path for Brahimaj given Gorimbo's two career submission losses -- both by guillotine choke as a wrestler. However, there's a significant endurance gap between these two in addition to a huge advantage for Gorimbo behind accurate (60%) and powerful (3.92% knockdown rate) striking.

Given the context clues of Gorimbo's budding stardom, "The Answer" is clear here in more ways than one.

Betting Verdict

  • Fading the line movement, I like Gorimbo's moneyline (-142) to keep his winning streak rolling. His length, power, and striking are all advantages when Brahimaj seems to be a submission-from-the-bottom or bust in this bout.
  • The hefty price for this fight to not go the distance (-260) is appropriate to me. Brahimaj isn't built to win minutes in the UFC, and Gorimbo's power is an obstacle that Ramiz hasn't navigated well to this point.

DFS Verdict

  • The meme submission danger from Brahimaj is enough to keep Gorimbo ($16) out of the MVP mix, but he's got significant upside to score points if he avoids it.

Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Khaos Williams-134 $16 6' 0"77"0.443.46
Carlston Harris+110 $15 6' 0"76"0.492.84

This welterweight co-main event just outside the rankings should provide some action.

Khaos Williams is the slight favorite with a larger body of work, collecting five wins in seven UFC appearances. Living up to his name, Khaos' UFC career began with consecutive knockouts inside of 30 seconds, but he's had just one against Miguel Baeza (3-3 UFC) since the electric start.

Frankly, I've been selling Williams for several fights behind below-average striking accuracy (39%) and defense (42%), which culminates in a +0.44 SSR that's underperformed his winning ways. In his last fight against the debuting Rolando Bedoya (0-2 UFC), Khaos posted a -19 striking differential. It's been kind of ugly outside of the result.

However, this matchup with Carlston Harris is still a winnable one. Harris' true skill level is a bit of a mystery with such a small sample. In his two wins extending beyond a few minutes, Harris used five takedowns to sneak past Jared Gooden (2-4 UFC) and was getting mauled by Jeremiah Wells (4-2 UFC) before an anaconda choke out of nowhere.

Nonetheless, "Mocambique" has a better SSR (+0.40), striking accuracy (49%), and defense (54%) than Williams, and he's got the grappling upside of the two. He's posted a pair of UFC wins by sub, averaging 0.8 attempts per 15 minutes. Williams let up five submission attempts to Baeza.

Williams is the more natural striker with a takedown defense (84%) to largely keep it in that area, but Harris knocked out PFL 205-pound champion Impa Kasanganay in less than a round. I think this betting number is underselling his striking acumen.

Betting Verdict

  • My model has Harris at -130 (56.3% likely) to win behind his grappling upside and level of competition. I really can't see him underperforming Bedoya at distance, and his KO loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0 UFC) is not a fair indictment of durability as the only hint of those issues.
  • The model has this fight 51.0% likely to go the full distance, but over 2.5 rounds (+140) comes with a much lower cost. Khaos just isn't the fearsome power-puncher he's made out to be.

DFS Verdict

  • I prefer the value dart at Harris ($15) in the mid-range. Williams' knockout ways have all but dried up since UFC tape has become available for his opponents.

Lerone Murphy vs. Edson Barboza

Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Lerone Murphy-144 $20 5' 9"73"1.253.01
Edson Barboza+118 $15 5' 11"75"-0.162.73

Edson Barboza keeps turning away prospects, and another has reached his doorstep in Saturday's main event.

"Junior" has seen a late-career resurgence that I didn't see coming after lopsided losses to Giga Chikadze (a striking TKO) and Bryce Mitchell (a dominant decision win), but he used a first-round knee to dispatch Billy Quarantillo (7-4 UFC) before surviving a first round against Sodiq Yusuff (7-3 UFC) where he was nearly finished to climb back for a decision win.

The powerful, efficient kickboxer has always been a challenge behind solid striking accuracy (45%) and defense (57%). In a huge sample, his 1.12% knockdown rate is impressive, and a 75% takedown D has been a hallmark of his career. Lerone Murphy has his work cut out for him if Barboza's prime is still present at 38 years old.

England's Murphy is undefeated as a pro (13-0-1), but this is his first ranked test in UFC, so it doesn't mean a ton as to winning this bout. He cross-trains with 170-pound champ Leon Edwards, and analytically, he absolutely resembles a less-experienced version of "Rocky".

"The Miracle" has a +1.25 SSR; it's just his volume (7.30 significant strikes attempted per minute) that leaves a bit to be desired. His wrestling really popped in his last fight and now sits at an average of 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid accuracy (46%). However, he's got zero pro wins via submission.

I love to bet main events, but there just isn't a lot here. Barboza's last two wins haven't aged well as Quarantillo and Yusuff were both finished by lower competition since facing Junior.

I'd favor the younger Murphy -- albeit a slight bit less than his current moneyline -- with no real lean about the fight going the full distance or not. The favorite is a responsible striker with both power and wrestling upside to replicate some of the issues Barboza has struggled with since the COVID break.

Betting Verdict

  • My model has Murphy as 58.3% likely to win this bout, which is just slightly lower than these implied odds (59.0%).
  • This fight is -122 to finish early, which is a somewhat ambiguous line with Lerone's longevity in a five-rounder completely unknown. I'm leaning toward length but an early finish here, as well.

DFS Verdict

  • Murphy's historical pace could lead to an underwhelming forecast in fantasy circles despite the added two rounds. While I'll likely mix him into flex spots, a dominant or voluminous win over Barboza seems a bit far-fetched to consider him at MVP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.