UFC Vegas 85: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Vegas 85: Dolidze vs. Imavov, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Thomas Petersen vs. Jamal Pogues

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

The simple way I can break down this one is which 265-pound heavyweight -- not in what you'd call optimal condition -- gets tired first.

As both fighters are fresh, Thomas Petersen is probably a worthy favorite. Petersen steamrolled his regional competition and his Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) bid with his wrestling acumen. The former North Dakota State standout posted 7.34 takedowns per 15 in a splattering of Chandler Cole on the show. The issue? Cole is far from a UFC-caliber fighter himself after dropping all three debuts with major North American promotions.

Peterson's submission win (via keylock) was a great start, but it's also a similar start that Jamal Pogues had. Pogues won his first three UFC-affiliated bouts on the back of 12 takedowns, and he's defended two of his three attempts. Nonetheless, Pogues' -59 striking differential against Mick Parkin (2-0 UFC) in his last fight has some soured on the former light heavyweight after he came in at the heaviest weight of his pro career.

At this point, Petersen has landed four significant strikes at distance. Pogues has landed 146 when going the distance in all four appearances, and that's a huge mark of conditioning that Petersen hasn't shown. He's yet to win a fight that went into a ninth minute, and we saw him resigned to distance and knocked out by UFC heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta (5-1 UFC) in May 2022 outside of the UFC.

Pogues doesn't have the power or striking acumen of Cortes-Acosta, but his wrestling skills are far superior. I just can't back the idea of laying -170 chalk for a heavyweight who relies on physically exhausting wrestling in his UFC debut when Pogues has shown enough resistance to see the other side -- and potentially finish his incapacitated foe.

I'll pick the 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• My favorite wager here is this fight to not go the distance (-128). Petersen's strength and physicality usually wins out in fewer than three rounds, but if it doesn't, Pogues has shown staying power to weather the storm and keep striking.
• I wouldn't blame anyone for a dart at Pogues, but there's also a really quality argument to not wager on which bad heavyweight gas tank runs empty first.

DFS Verdict

• It's extremely uncomfortable such a monstrous score looms right out of the gate, and it's pretty unclear who scores it. With uneasiness, I'll likely build around Pogues ($13) with other better favorites I can count on.

Marquel Mederos vs. Landon Quinones

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Like Petersen, Marquel Mederos will have to prove his DWCS bid was no fluke.

As a +160 underdog, Mederos scoring a first-round KO over Issa Isakov during the show's 2023 season to earn his ticket to UFC. As a result, the counting marks -- including a +3.85 SSR -- are sensational across the board. As always, that comes with the caveat of a one-fight sample where we're not even sure, due to weight cutting or nerves, that we even got a median performance from Isakov on that individual night.

Landon Quinones actually has a more tangible UFC sample despite some dire conditions around it. Quinones made his debut on short notice against Nasrat Haqparast (8-4 UFC) on the fringe of the rankings, and he served himself pretty well to just post a -23 striking differential in such a tough spot. His 41% striking accuracy and 54% defense against one of the best boxers at 155 pounds were solid, landing the second-most significant strikes (148) of any Haqparast opponent.

Quinones' issues -- including a thwarted run on The Ultimate Fighter in 2023 -- have come with grappling defense, but Mederos comes from Factory X Muay Thai, a striking gym in Denver, with no pro wins or losses by submission. By and large, this should be a 15-minute striking battle.

If the underdog was finished or badly beaten by Haqparast, I'd have bought more into some of Mederos' admittedly impressive peripherals, but he showed pretty well against a known quantity. His durability was also tested -- and he passed -- when Haqparast has seven career knockdowns against others.

I really don't know how you justify a -144 price on Mederos that's almost assuredly inflated by opposite results in this duo's respective last fights.

Betting Verdict

• Quinones' betting number (+118) has shrunk all week, but I've always maintained that line movement in UFC is a futile trend to watch. I like a half-unit dart on him in a fight that's in his wheelhouse when he's proven to be reliable to stick around the full length of the fight.
• To that point, this fight is +102 to go the full distance, and we've seen Quinones last a hard 15. Mederos' gas tank is a total question mark. If oddsmakers' lean is correct, you won't want to be sweating Mederos.

DFS Verdict

• The lower mid-range is pretty empty this week outside of Pogues and Quinones ($15), but the latter is a far more known quantity to secure FanDuel points. He's a great fit for cash games.

Julija Stoliarenko vs. Luana Carolina

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Luana Carolina's takedown defense will decide this entire fight.

Carolina was on all sorts of watchlists after a raucous DWCS debut, but her 4-3 UFC career has been a total mixed bag of results. At her best, she's used a 76% takedown D to thwart oncoming wrestlers, allowing a +0.65 SSR to take over the fight and win on points. All four of her wins have come via decision. At her worst, she's been significantly outpaced by U.K. strikers Molly McCann and Joanne Wood, and Ariane Lipski submitted her via kneebar in 2020.

We can rule out the former with Julija Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko was nearly cut from UFC behind four straight losses (stemming from a -1.75 SSR), but she's rallied in matchups where she's had a clear grappling advantage, submitting both Jessica-Rose Clark (4-5 UFC) and the aforementioned McCann (6-5 UFC) in her last three fights. The early-career numbers at bantamweight are still rough, but she's converted three of her last five takedown attempts.

In a vacuum, Carolina has shown the ability to stay on her feet. There's a version of this fight where she stuffs Stoliarenko's wrestling attempts and wins easily on points -- if not breaking her will. However, I'm worried that one will be all it takes for the Lithuanian given her own submission prowess (10 pro wins via sub) and Carolina's complete lack of awareness down on the mat in the Lipski bout.

My model believes Stoliarenko finishes this fight 27.9% of the time to Carolina's 12.2%. That tangible gap in danger is why I'd back her in a fight the model otherwise sees -- like oddsmakers -- as a coin flip.

Betting Verdict

• I think my favorite bet in this fight is for it to not go the full distance (-138). Stoliarenko has clear and obvious submission upside, and Carolina's path to winning this fight is continuously stuffing takedowns, which should exhaust the favorite despite her lack of one-punch power. My model has the bout at 40.1% likely to end early.
• If backing a side, Stoliarenko's first-round submission prop (+370) seems like the way to go. She's not shown the ability to sustain wrestling success when not able to find a submission, and it's not as if Carolina is a wizard in that department.

DFS Verdict

• This choice is pretty clear here. Carolina hasn't topped 55 FanDuel points since the start of 2020. Stoliarenko ($15) has two first-round finishes in her last three fights.

JeongYeong Lee vs. Blake Bilder

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

I wish I could be of service in this bout.

We don't really have much of a measuring stick for either of these fighters, but that's especially true for JeongYeong Lee. Lee won UFC's Road to the UFC program back in February, defeating Yizha via split decision. Lee defended 16 of Yizha's 21 takedowns and had a +1 striking differential; it felt like the judges punished him for the ugly fight with empty wrestling advances.

Regionally, Lee finished seven of his nine wins, but it was against totally negligible competition relative to a UFC level. While he absolutely looks the part with great size and seemingly great power for 145 pounds, we just don't know.

Blake Bilder is a bit of the same, but we've at least seen him for 30 minutes in the octagon. A grindy competitor with solid cardio, Bilder styled on Shane Young (2-5 UFC) in his official debut. However, his second fight with Kyle Nelson (3-4-1 UFC) proved there were some shortcomings with size and strength. He was unable to secure a takedown and landed just 37% of his strikes.

At the very least, Lee has proven to have pretty solid takedown defense, and that's a similar combination of size and defensive grappling that totally thwarted Bilder's efforts against Nelson.

The longer this fight goes, the more I'd like Bilder's chances, but Lee also went the full distance against Yizha's hectic pace. At the pick 'em price earlier this week, I'd have leaned Lee, but Bilder's current +140 odds starting to show more value as the more known quantity.

Betting Verdict

• "The Korean Tiger" has a data sample that means virtually nothing, and Bilder's is very plain through two different types of matchups. There's just not a particular edge betting this fight that I can discern.

DFS Verdict

• Forced to always consider the entire card in DFS, this fight is +110 to go the distance, so it's plausibly a total dud. Lee's presence near better favorites makes him pretty undesirable at $16. This one is Bilder ($14) or pass.

Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

"Ultimate Fighting Championship" has some explaining to do to bear that name and also sanction this one.

Themba Gorimbo and Pete Rodriguez had unorthodox paths to UFC, taking short-notice bouts -- both of which went horribly -- to make it. They've had an odd time matching them since. Gorimbo rolled over Takashi Sato (2-5 UFC) for a decision win, and Rodriguez viciously knocked out Mike Jackson (1-2 UFC) with a knee right up the middle.

They'll serve as a perfect matchup to test each other's kryptonite. Gorimbo -- who is Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's favorite fighter -- can chain wrestle, averaging 3.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, but his grappling leaves plenty to be desired. He's never authored a submission attempt, and he was a sub victim of A.J. Fletcher (1-3 UFC) in his debut. Gorimbo's worst trend thus far is a horrid 42% striking D.

That's where "Dead Game" Rodriguez can win. The boxer has great hand speed and has landed 10.37 significant strikes per minute of 46% accuracy. Some of his efficiency metrics suffered at the hands of ranked 170er Jack Della Maddalena (7-0 UFC), but he's the better striker here. The question is if Rodriguez -- extremely undersized for welterweight at 5'9" -- has the strength to keep his 100% takedown defense perfect through this fight with Gorimbo.

Frankly, the odds indicated my lean here. Gorimbo could control this fight with chain wrestling once more, but he's not shown elite weapons to finish the fight there. On the flip side, Rodriguez's striking offense is a new challenge for Themba.

With the juxtaposition of those two outcomes, a +198 moneyline is pretty wild.

Betting Verdict

• UFC lulls me into these bets where I don't feel strongly about Rodriguez as a fighter, but there's just too much chalk behind Gorimbo with two flawed, unproven fighters set to battle. There's no doubt where the value is. I'll likely fire a unit.
• Correlate your total to your winning fighter. Gorimbo likely rolls if this fight is extended, but Rodriguez's power could easily cash the under in his direction.

DFS Verdict

• At worst, Rodriguez ($10) has shown better takedown D than Takashi Sato, who survived Gorimbo's grasp for all 15 minutes. If this one is extended, he'll almost certainly be the side you'd rather have played on FanDuel.

Azat Maksum vs. Charles Johnson

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This is a massive fight for both of these flyweights who likely expected to be in the rankings by now.

Training with undefeated welterweight stud Shavkat Rakhmonov (6-0 UFC), Azat Maksum didn't deliver on his high expectations against Tyson Nam. He squeaked out a decision over Tyson Nam (3-5 UFC) with a -35 striking differential, but upon review, Nam was a brutal matchup for a 28-year-old sharpening his skills behind the veteran's elite 65% striking and 87% takedown defense that comes with plus divisional power.

Maksum, a grappling specialist with 7 of his 16 regional wins via submission, should have an easier time against Charles Johnson. Johnson's 62% takedown D has wilted by the fight, ceding 31 mat returns total in six UFC bouts. The veteran absolutely has top-shelf size (5'9") for the division, but it hasn't translated to power yet with zero knockdowns, and he's had a hard time making his striking (+1.07 SSR) count before losing his feet.

Azat's size and strength are similar to Johnson, and he won't have his usual reach advantage with matching 70" wingspans here. To me, that's huge when "Inner G" Johnson has had disappointing results even with those advantages.

Namely, I look for Maksum to have significantly more wrestling success in this one, and it could open up his entire arsenal. Johnson also enters this fight -- a bad matchup on paper -- on short notice. I think the prospect might actually be undervalued here because of a clunky debut against Nam's superb defense.

Betting Verdict

• Maksum's asking price (-225) here is absurd, but I'd endorse his decision prop (+110) when Johnson hasn't been submitted by grapplers like Muhammad Mokaev and Cody Durden to this stage.

DFS Verdict

• That particular betting outcome would be pretty negligible in this domain -- especially when Maksum had such a brutal time mounting offense in his debut. I'm likely to stay away from both fighters.

Molly McCann vs. Diana Belbita

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

Losing skids can mean shifts in weight classes, and "Meatball" Molly McCann will try her hand at 115 pounds for the first time in a career dating back to 2018 on Saturday.

I love the adjustment for McCann, who, at 5'4", often found herself dramatically undersized at flyweight. That's where three losses by submission due to a strength disadvantage really became noticed. Without that danger, McCann has proven to be an excellent, high-volume striker. She lands 5.68 significant strikes per minute on 49% accuracy, and the striking D (63%) is even better.

This matchup also couldn't be much better for her. Diana Belbita averages just 1.62 takedown attempts per 15 and has never attempted a UFC submission. These two actually met in Belbita's UFC debut in 2019, which Molly won convincingly with 113 significant strikes and 5 takedowns.

The concern for Meatball would be a six-inch reach disadvantage to the lanky Romanian and/or weight-cut concerns, but Belbita's striking efficiency (+0.16 SSR) just isn't good enough to believe McCann won't enter the pocket and still get the better of the exchanges as she did in the first fight. McCann ceded seven inches of reach to Carolina -- and other flyweights -- without much issue, too.

This is my fight of the night between two high-volume strikers. Belbita also attempts 15.69 significant strikes per minute at distance, but similar to her last loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, her lack of power and accuracy (42%) on them will be the obstacle to win the fight. She still did land 98 of her own significant strikes the first go-round.

UFC can very much be a "who you know" over "what you know" industry. McCann, a dear friend and training partner to undefeated star Paddy Pimblett, is getting a soft landing spot here at strawweight. We've seen her win this fight before.

Betting Verdict

• With my model constantly safeguarding historical upset rates, I've still got McCann 62.4% likely to win here. It's giving her a 64.7% chance to win the distance striking, and its grappling score is 81.3% in Molly's favor. I just don't see where she loses this one.
• Belbita's historical durability has the fight at 74.5% likely to go the distance, per the model. That makes McCann's points prop (+100) the highest-value outcome in her direction.

DFS Verdict

• I am totally okay stacking this fight. McCann ($22) is an MVP candidate when she's landed over 100 significant strikes in four of her six UFC wins, and Belbita ($9) has a low enough salary to pay off just sticking around to compile significant-strike points.

Gilbert Urbina vs. Charles Radtke

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

"Chuck Buffalo" didn't exactly make a ton of fans in his UFC debut, but that's not the only reason he's one of Saturday's longest shots.

Charles Radtke landed just one of his six takedown attempts on Blood Diamond (0-3 UFC) -- perhaps one of the worst grapplers in UFC history. Radtke used cage control (9:41) to coast through a dreadful fight and used a homophobic slur to describe the fans in the crowd booing him for it. Without significant improvement, he won't be long for UFC.

On the flip side, Gilbert Urbina showed his short-notice debut against Bryan Battle (5-1 UFC) was not all he had to offer. Urbina toasted Orion Cosce (1-2 UFC) for a +35 striking differential and second-round knockout via head kick in the following bout. Through both, Urbina's +2.24 SSR is stellar, and he's added 3.96 takedowns per 15 on 50% accuracy himself.

Really, the lone drama in this bout is that Urbina didn't defend the only takedown he's faced thus far. If his defensive grappling can just match what Blood Diamond showed (and I'm optimistic), he's the significantly more efficient, voluminous, and dangerous striker.

Radtke was brought in to give Blood Diamond, a training partner of Israel Adesanya, a winnable fight. Personally, I think he's the worst 170-pound fighter on the current roster, and Urbina's two fights -- including moments against Battle -- have shown a guy with real staying power in this division.

Betting Verdict

• I'm looking to bet Urbina's first-round (+290) and second-round (+600) props based on his own well-roundedness. This is a lopsided matchup overall.
  • Urbina's gas tank totally expiring before he finishes Radtke is really the only path I see for him to lose this bout.

DFS Verdict

• Personally, Urbina ($18) is my favorite MVP candidate on the board. Radtke's lack of finishing danger against prior competition has me minimally concerned he'll -- at worst -- have 15 minutes with solid pace to score fantasy points.

Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Makhmud Muradov

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

The conditional formatting on my dataset for Aliaskhab Khizriev is dark green in all areas. If it stays that way for a few fights, we usually have a future UFC champion, so I'm excited to see him back this weekend.

Khizriev's UFC debut against Denis Tiuliulin (1-4 UFC) can only come with a few grains of salt by itself, but the undefeated 33-year-old from Russia is hardly a project at 13-0 professionally. Through that (and his DWCS bid), he's posted a +1.67 SSR with 5.77 takedowns and 3.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Whoa, Nelly.

Though not wanting to fall into an inflated value trap, the underdog here -- Makhmud Muradov -- comes with similar concerns and worse results. Muradov's last effort was 13 takedowns in a win over the severely undersized Bryan Barbarena, who fought most of his career at 170, but it was ugly prior to that. His other three wins are a combined 2-5 since the COVID break, so you could go as far as to say he's yet to beat a bonafide middleweight.

Muradov also has grappling issues historically. He was submitted by Gerald Meerschaert in 2021 and controlled for over five minutes by Caio Borralho in 2022. He's 3-4 by submission outcomes in his career set to face a Dagestani sambo artist. Oh boy.

While not rushing to the window to bet a -158 moneyline on such an unproven guy, there's minimal doubt at this stage that Khizriev brings more on the mat than an aging Meerschaert, and his striking numbers are really impressive to this stage when Muradov hasn't knocked down a true 185er.

I'll go with the favorite in a fight that has plenty of volatility.

Betting Verdict

• Eight of Khizriev's last nine wins have come before the 7.5-minute mark, so I would only think of a stab at this fight under 2.5 rounds (-124) to encompass his aggressiveness -- and also the potential that Muradov entirely completes a "fraud check."
• Khizriev's improved conditioning on the scales Friday has me more interested in his moneyline (-158) than earlier this week. He appears to have made good use of the extended layoff.

DFS Verdict

• I'll likely get my exposure to Khizriev ($16) through DFS lineups. His rate of 7.23 FanDuel points (FDP) per minute and early-finishing history are both great starting points for an MVP candidate, but we have better options.

Natalia Silva vs. Viviane Araujo

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

I doubted Natalia Silva entering her last fight. I'm officially on the train now.

Silva hadn't had a quality win to prove her striking prowess at a ranked level, but she made Andrea Lee (+1.22 SSR) look like an amateur striker as the eighth-ranked flyweight in the world. There's really no doubting her now with a +2.97 SSR that's climbing every fight, and her potential grappling deficiencies haven't even entered the conversation due to a 92% takedown defense.

That's the logic behind this matchup with Viviane Araujo. Araujo's wrestling is up there with the best in the division, averaging 1.83 takedowns per 15 behind 46% accuracy. She used that to squeak by Jennifer Maia (6-6 UFC) in October despite a -17 striking differential. At 37, Araujo's best days are behind her. The issues with her striking (-0.85 SSR) and cardiovascular endurance are growing with each fight.

By the thinnest of margins, Araujo snuck by Maia, but Maia's 58% takedown defense is closer to poor. Silva, meanwhile, largely passed that sort of test against the now-ranked Jasmine Jasudavicius (5-2 UFC) in 2022. She defended all six takedown attempts. I'm not sure Araujo is even a better wrestler than Jas at this stage, and Silva's striking is even better than Maia's.

She's one of the card's largest favorites for a reason. The question is if she can secure her third UFC win inside the full distance.

Betting Verdict

• Silva will be a hard forecast for my model when giving all of the grappling upside to her opponents, and Araujo's competition is significantly better. Even with that known, it's pegging Silva as 59.3% likely to win. If you're in a UFC "survivor" pool, this is the pick.
  • The prop closest to value in the model is Silva's KO/TKO prop (+500). I've got it at +640. Her -125 decision price is just really hard to justify even as the likeliest outcome.

DFS Verdict

• I'd love to motion toward Silva ($23) at MVP, but she'll need a finish. While it's possible, Araujo has never been stopped inside the octagon. Personally, she's best reserved for flex spots with so-so scoring upside to this stage.

Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

This fight was supposed to be on the card capping 2023, but with an illness behind him, Randy Brown will look to jumpstart a 2024 plunge toward the rankings.

On paper, "Rudeboy" has it all. He's got a +1.05 SSR behind a gigantic 78" reach for this division, and the striking accuracy (47%) and defense (54%) are pretty solid for a 16-fight career dating back to 2016. He's not much of a wrestler but adds a 74% takedown D, and the length has resulted in some opportune submissions historically.

If there's a criticism of Brown, it's passivity. He's gone to a decision in four straight wins -- sometimes against foes much older or on short notice. That's worth noting for fantasy players given the poor historical output (3.11 FDP per minute).

The extra month for this fight to happen was extra punitive for Muslim Salikhov, who doesn't have many of them left when turning 40 in June. Though he's won six of his last eight fights, none of them are particularly impressive Ws given the six victories have come over fighters a combined 7-11-1 in UFC since the COVID break.

Salikhov's striking is, technically, beautiful. However, the low output has just capped him to a +0.46 SSR, and you have to project a downtick in efficiency ceding eight inches of reach. Nearing 40, can he penetrate Brown's solid takedown defense given 3.28 attempts per 15 minutes historically? I'm also doubtful there.

This might be the least thrilling fight on the card, but I'd be pretty stunned if Brown wasn't able to secure a victory with an edge in every department.

Betting Verdict

• My model has a hard time showing value on betting favorites without much finishing equity, so it's got Brown at just -130 to win.
• It's projecting this fight to go the distance 79.2% of the time. I wouldn't bet this fight's moneyline or total myself with inflated numbers.
  • Brown's decision prop (+125) isn't showing value when I've got it at +120.

DFS Verdict

• I see the argument for Salikhov ($10) in a fight not expected to produce many points, but if chaos ensues with some of the unproven favorites, Brown ($21) could be a valuable flex play just to keep your lineup afloat should he secure this victory.

Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

I don't think I'll ever reason with UFC fans by saying that Drew Dober's show is better than his fighting skills.

Dober's SSR is now positive after a +25 striking differential against unranked 34-year-old Ricky Glenn in a fight that was so obviously slanted in his favor, but the book is well out on him. He combines a below-average striking accuracy (40%) and defense (51%) with a 1.11% knockdown rate that couldn't be more overstated due to some wild, improbable comebacks. He's also struggled with a 56% takedown D at times, which could be pivotal here.

The Nebraskan's singular best skill might be his ability to wade through damage, amassing a 4-3 record in his last seven fights despite a combined -44 striking differential. Due to fatigue or just wearing Dober's own modest punching oomph, he's been able to rally. Renato Moicano could serve as a more difficult opponent that has squashed those efforts -- as most in the rankings have.

"Money" Moicano is quietly on a run at 155, losing to only the ranked pair of Rafaels (Fiziev and Dos Anjos) since the COVID break, and he went 25 minutes with the latter despite taking the fight on five days' notice.

Analytically, Renato is so much more well-rounded and efficient. He has a higher striking accuracy (47%) and defense (60%) while adding 1.66 takedowns per 15 on an efficient clip (46%) as a wrestler. His best skill might be a python-like grappling game, smothering foes for 0.7 attempts per 15 minutes and scoring six UFC wins via sub.

The drama in this one is if Moicano gets caught by Dober's power, but the knockdown rate in question isn't high enough to be drastically concerned. To me, the far more likely outcome is that Moicano smothers Dober's poor takedown defense and finds a submission before long.

Betting Verdict

• I put this out on Twitter at -136, and he's closing on FanDuel at -188. My model only finds value up to -150, but it's also aging out quite a bit of Dober's historical issues defending takedowns and submissions from years ago. I'd realistically make Moicano a -225 favorite in this spot.
• I've got the fight 45.6% likely to go the distance, which does leave value juxtaposed with 28.6% odds on FanDuel. Dober hasn't been submitted in the first round in his entire career. If you like to fish for longshots, Moicano's second-round (+850) and third-round (+1400) submission props are pretty solid numbers compared to +160 overall.

DFS Verdict

• Moicano ($18) is an MVP candidate to me. The swelling odds on this fight come from the conclusion that Moicano may or may not be the better striker, but that drama subsides quickly when grappling. One takedown could be lights out for his opponent.

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Roman Dolidze

Middleweight (185 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

These "changing of the guard" main events don't always go according to the UFC's plan (or oddsmakers' for that matter), but Nassourdine Imavov will look to execute on Saturday.

The well-rounded middleweight from France dispatched three consecutive multi-time UFC winners to enter the top 15, but it hasn't been smooth sailing once here. Imavov lost to former divisional champ Sean Strickland despite Sean fighting on short notice in January 2023, and his June 2023 bout with Chris Curtis (5-2 UFC) was stopped early due to Imavov's illegal headbutt. He was dominating Curtis, but that mistake cost him his first ranked win.

Imavov is a versatile, efficient striker (+0.79 SSR) whose two UFC wins came via ground-and-pound TKOs. Though yet to convert one, he's got submission skills given 1.7 attempts per 15 minutes. There's not an area where Imavov is especially "weak"; it's just about proving it at the highest level.

That's something Roman Dolidze has already done. I'd describe his fighting style as that of a grizzly bear mauling prey. The former light heavyweight turned an unorthodox position into a stoppage against Jack Hermansson (10-6 UFC) to score his first ranked win, but he'd realistically beaten five straight multi-time UFC winners before that short of a horrendous decision in his fight with Trevin Giles.

Dolidze's entire game is centric to huge power (1.68% knockdown rate) and an aggressive submission game, matching Imavov's 1.7 attempts per 15. Dolidze's last "step up" in competition to the top 10 against Marvin Vettori didn't go awfully. The quicker Italian outpointed him with a +35 striking differential, but he had a chance to get the nod behind more damaging strikes.

Imavov could absolutely do the same, but his resumé isn't nearly as complete as Vettori's was entering that fight. In fact, Dolidze brutally stopped Phil Hawes (4-4 UFC) in the first round, and Imavov lost to Hawes outright after surrendering four takedowns.

Dolidze (50% takedown accuracy) can absolutely wrestle if that weakness isn't shored up, but more importantly, Nassourdine's 0% knockdown rate doesn't provide Dolidze with much danger to worry about. I see this as closer to a coin flip, leaving the betting value squarely on the Georgian.

Betting Verdict

• My model has this fight closer to where the betting line opened, pegging Imavov to win 51.3% of the time. It's just hard to take a favorite with as little finishing equity as he has.
• With no true submission edge for one of these fighters, Imavov's lack of power has supremely boosted the odds this fight goes the distance (66.4%) in the model. It's not hard to envision a win by points for either fighter. Imavov's would come keeping upright and striking, and Dolidze could control a ton of the fight with takedowns.

DFS Verdict

• The gap between these two is even wider here. With minimal finishing equity, Imavov would have to significantly increase his historical pace and avoid prolonged wrestling exchanges to pay off a $20 salary.

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