UFC Vegas 105 Best Bets and Predictions: Emmett vs. Murphy

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 105 Betting Picks

Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Meerschaert to Win Inside the Distance (+280)

The great part about fighters like Gerald Meerschaert is that they've proven to only win one way.

"GM3" is 0-4 in UFC bouts that go the distance but 12-6 in all others. He might not win on Saturday, but a +164 moneyline seems useless when this line exists for the method in which he might.

This is one of those matchups that was brutal for my model. Brad Tavares is a declining fighter who has lost four of his last five. He's been knocked out twice in that span.

His 80% takedown defense seems like a great matchup opposite a grappler, but Tavares has surrendered multiple takedowns in consecutive fights.

Averaging 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, GM3 can close the show quickly if he's able to get it there. He attempts 5.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a so-so clip of them (35%) historically.

I've modeled Tavares 59.6% likely to win the distance striking battle, which is why I think he's mounted as a heavy favorite here. However, his low knockdown rate (0.36%) will struggle to finish Meerschaert in that realm. GM3's knockdown rate (0.52%) is actually an advantage against Tavares' fading chin.

The model has Meerschaert 35.2% likely to win inside the distance, up from these 26.3% implied odds.

Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito

Sabatini to Win After Round 1 (+240)

UFC always finds a way to do this to me. Two of my most overvalued fighters at featherweight clash in Saturday's co-main.

I've had qualms, relative to price, with both Joanderson Brito and Pat Sabatini, but the market seems to me heavily weighting in Sabatini's flaws compared to the favorite.

Yes, there is a great chance Brito can bonk Sabatini in the first round. That's how both of Pat's UFC setbacks have come, but Brito's 0.52% knockdown rate just isn't very large against suboptimal competition. The Brazilian's UFC foes have an unspectacular combined record of 35-30.

Both of these men are also black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who probably won't catch the other in a quick trap.

Brito is a physical terminator who hasn't been finished as a pro since 2015. However, there's way too much respect given to his early-knockout potential here, and if it doesn't happen, you could argue Sabatini's elite wrestling (3.97 takedowns per 15 minutes) should be favored to control a majority of the fight.

I've got Sabatini 39.9% likely to win this fight compared to these 34.5% implied odds. This is a Same Game Parlay of his moneyline with Fight to Start Round 2 (-260).

Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy

Murphy by Submission or Points (-125)
Murphy by Submission (+1700)

England's Lerone Murphy is an undefeated dark horse at 145 pounds, and this is an important test for him to take the path of least resistance against Josh Emmett.

Emmett produced another highlight KO of Bryce Mitchell in his last outing, and his career 1.64% knockdown rate ranks third inside the featherweight rankings to Ilia Topuria and Diego Lopes. He's got one of the best overhand rights in the sport.

However, the 40-year-old just doesn't have many paths to win without a haymaker. He's got a -0.57 SSR and defends takedowns at just a 46% clip. The latter issue is a major issue when Murphy goes to his takedowns decently often at 3.30 attempts per 15 minutes. He lands an efficient 54% of those tries.

Quietly, Murphy has posted 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, too. Emmett was submitted from top position two fights ago. I'm shocked Murphy is +1700 to find a sub -- likely because he hasn't done so in eight UFC fights so far. My model thinks it happens 9.9% of the time.

I believe the favorite wrestles a ton in this fight, and Murphy's knockdown rate (0.38%) isn't very high as the more efficient striker even if he doesn't.

My model has him 56.1% likely to win on points or via submission. These double-chance odds are nice, but the submission prop should also be closer to +900.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.