UFC Vegas 104 Best Bets and Predictions: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 104: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2, taking place at the UFC Apex facility on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 Betting Picks

Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Nunes Wins Inside the Distance (+310)

There is no more appropriate nickname in UFC than "Zombie Girl".

Priscila Cachoeira is a heavy bag with legs, but she's somehow never been (T)KO'd in 18 career fights. That's despite absorbing 7.03 significant strikes per minute in UFC behind an awful 43% striking D. She's also been submitted four times with the promotion.

Though Josiane Nunes isn't a galaxy apart defensively (51% striking D), she has been much better, and this her native 135-pound class. Now at 36 years old, Cachoeira is moving up in weight, and it could be what gets her knocked out for the first time.

Nunes is a good candidate. She lands a decent clip (42%) of 12.88 significant strike attempts per minute, and her 0.85% knockdown rate is quite good for women's bantamweight.

She hasn't attempted a submission in UFC, but I'll play it safe given Cachoeira's deficiencies in that realm. My model projects Nunes to finish the underdog 34.7% of the time (+190 implied).

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann

Spann to Win (+146)
Spann to Win in Round 1 or 2 (+260)

I'm excited for Ryan Spann's move to heavyweight.

Endurance issues plagued a light heavyweight tenure that was otherwise pretty fun. He has a gigantic 2.28% knockdown rate that earned three (T)KOs, and his 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes is extremely high volume for a big guy. He's won four UFC bouts via submission.

The latter outcome could -- could -- be easy pickings against Waldo Cortes-Acosta. "Salsa Boy" is a converted kickboxer just hasn't faced any legitimate grappling threat at all. He's been taken down successfully on 4 of 10 attempts faced and never had to defend a sub.

There's a non-zero chance that Cortes-Acosta can't grapple at all, which could lead to a quick ground finish. Conversely, I wouldn't rule out Spann coasting out this fight with easy takedowns.

I've got "Superman" 46.2% likely (+116 implied) to win this bout. It happens early 34.2% of the time, and the first-two-rounds angle helps dodge concerns about his endurance or durability in this new larger weight class.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Holobaugh to Win (+176)

Models remove bias, which I have plenty of when it comes to 38-year-old Kurt Holobaugh. This line is pretty ridiculous, though.

In August 2023, "Kurt the Hurt" submitted Austin Hubbard in the second round. Last October, Alexander Hernandez couldn't finish Hubbard in three rounds despite a +16 striking differential. MMA math isn't perfect, but it is a raw display that these two are in the same elo.

Hernandez did well to stuff all 12 of Hubbard's takedowns in his return to 155. but his -0.18 striking success rate (SSR) is tough to trust. Holobaugh's (+0.28) is actually better despite a higher level of competition overall.

This is a really tough bet to place in a fight -156 to go the distance when I've got Hernandez winning a decision 41.1% of the time to Holobaugh's 30.9%. The younger fighter should win minutes here.

However, Kurt's finishing upside is higher, which is why I've got him 46.8% likely (+114 implied) to win overall.

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze

Dolidze to Win (+136)
Dolidze by Points (+330)

These two fought a three-rounder in March 2023 where Marvin Vettori pieced apart Roman Dolidze for a +35 striking differential.

I think we could see variance on display in the rematch. The scorecards were all over the place because Dolidze landed with more impact.

Since that bout, Vettori's only other fight was ceding a middleweight record for significant strikes (241) to Jared Cannonier. Cannonier, 1-2 since the bout, isn't in the title mix anymore. Meanwhile, a shift to Xtreme Couture has helped Dolidze win two of three since the first fight.

Overall, Vettori's sturdy 69% takedown D is a problem for Dolidze, who does his best work on the mat. However, Roman has the tools to change fights in an instant, per 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a 1.02% knockdown rate. He just wasn't able to find anything of true note in the first matchup.

Both of these athletes are supremely durable historically, which is why I have the fight modeled 73.7% likely to go the distance. It's -196 to go the distance. Vettori's inactivity doesn't hurt the notion that Dolidze is noticeably improved from their first matchup, and analytically, I've got Dolidze 49.2% likely to win the rematch.

It's a win on the cards 27.1% of the time (+269 implied).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.