UFC Vegas 103 Best Bets and Predictions: Kape vs. Almabayev

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs. Almabayev, taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC Vegas 103 Betting Picks

Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich

Lee to Win (+176)
Lee by Points (+280)

I really don't care at all that Andrea Lee has lost five straight.

She is 36, but four losses inside the rankings were followed by a controversial split decision against Montana De La Rosa (6-5-1 UFC). I still don't know how this fight with JJ Aldrich isn't closer to a pick 'em when the favorite is 0-2 inside the rankings herself.

On the feet, Lee's +0.88 striking success rate (SSR) stomps Aldrich's (-0.50), and that should improve with a two-inch reach edge here. She's also landed 1.04 more takedowns per 15 minutes and has a UFC win via submission. Aldrich has never tried a sub.

At the expense of age, Lee is the more well-rounded fighter who has fought tougher recent competition. I've got Aldrich modeled a 52.1% favorite with some weight to Tapology's lopsided prediction, but you could argue "KGB" Lee should actually be favored here.

Fearing her potential retirement, though, I'm playing this one a bit lighter than if I was confident she showed up to win.

Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal

Ramos to Win in Round 1 or 2 (+900)
Ramos by Submission (+1300)

This fight is very much a tortoise opposite a hare, but the hare wasn't a +310 'dog in the story.

Ricardo Ramos has a bad reputation among UFC bettors. Despite being a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he's been caught in guillotine chokes twice. He's also shown issues -- at times -- with fatigue and a general show of heart.

He's still simply got more tools to finish this fight.

A 0.83% knockdown rate has come via some creative highlights, and he's also attempted nearly a sub attempt (0.8) every 15 minutes. Chepe Mariscal is a grinder with endurance for days, but all four of his UFC fights have gone to a decision, and despite 20:44 of total control time, he's got just one empty submission attempt to show for those efforts.

36-year-old Damon Jackson was never going to finish Mariscal in August, but the 29-year-old Ramos is worth small sprinkles to find his fourth UFC finish. I've got him 18.7% likely to win inside the distance -- and 10.3% likely to find a sub.

Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez

Brundage to Win (+100)
Brundage to Win After Round 1 (+205)

My YouTube co-host Matt Tanner and I are convinced the wrong man is favored here. That's crazy as two of Cody Brundage's heaviest detractors.

Brundage has used fouls to find the door and exit two of his last four fights, amassing a disqualification and a no-contest. However, he's still an athletic, powerful finisher with four first-round stoppages on his resume. His knockdown rate (1.90%) and rate of submission attempts per 15 (0.9) show someone looking to close the show.

He's much closer to his prime than Julian Marquez, who has been dropped four times in three consecutive (T)KO losses. His archetype has faded badly. He's an active submission player (2.6 attempts per 15) that hasn't even landed a takedown to lean into that strength.

Marquez's takedown defense (53%) is poor, and his chin appears shot. It's possible he outlasts an early flurry from the underdog as some have, but I've got Brundage 56.2% likely to win this fight.

While it's most likely by knockout (25.6%), there's an odd amount of decision equity (24.3%) in the model because of Marquez's lack of wrestling success. The moneyline is the better play.

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev

Almabayev to Win (+176)

Fading technical, relentless grapplers from Eastern Europe isn't usually a great idea -- especially when Manel Kape just lost to one.

Kape surrendered three takedowns in an uneventful loss to Muhammad Mokaev last July before his best performance in UFC: a +54 striking differential and third-round stoppage of Bruno Silva (4-3 UFC) in December.

Silva wasn't able to penetrate Kape's 77% takedown D, but Asu Almabayev can. Almabayev has posted 5.08 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy entering his second ranked matchup. He just toppled Matheus Nicolau's 90% takedown defense -- arguably winning his toughest possible matchup in the top 15.

Almabayev's +1.09 SSR has also met the grade so far, leaving Kape's +0.90 mark slightly in the dust. I'm not expecting him to win the striking battle with a three-inch reach disadvantage, though.

Also, Kape's two pro losses are via finish were submissions, and Almabayev has posted 1.7 attempts per 15 minutes.

There are enough tools available where Asu can get the job done as a moderate underdog despite being on short notice; I've got Kape modeled only 50.4% likely to win a close fight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.