UFC Paris Best Bets and Props: Imavov vs. Borralho

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho, taking place at the Accor Arena in Paris, France on Saturday.

UFC Paris Betting Picks

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig

Craig to Win (+265)
Craig by Submission (+500)

Will Paul Craig's slide stop on Saturday?

The 37-year-old submission artist known as "Bearjew" has one of the weirdest fighting styles on the roster that's produced top-10 wins and plenty of unranked defeats. The price that the former can occur against Modestas Bukauskas is too good to pass up.

Bukauskas, as many Craig opponents do, will have presumably the striking edge, but "The Baltic Gladiator" has had such more poor volume at distance that his striking success rate (-0.81 SSR) is actually worse than Craig's (-0.46). That's mind-boggling.

The Lithuanian's entry level takedown D is also pretty solid (77%), but 15 minutes is a long, long time to avoid a slip, stumble, or a Craig takedown -- of which he lands 1.47 per 15 minutes. At that point, he's in the clutches of Craig's 1.4 submission attempts per 15. The Scottish fighter is also second in all-time submission wins at light heavyweight (6) for his career.

Due to the favorite's low striking volume and nearly all of the fight's grappling upside, I actually have Craig 52.5% likely to win this bout. It's a patented submission 28.3% of the time.

On principle, this is probably a sell-high spot after Bukauskas robbed Ion Cutelaba of a decision win in his last bout.

Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones

Fight Goes the Distance (-136)
Jones by Points (+190)

There hasn't been a fight yet where I've walked away unimpressed by Mason Jones. I can't see developmental prospect Bolaji Oki bucking that trend.

Jones' two UFC losses came to Ludovit Klein and Mike Davis, who have a combined 12-3-1 UFC record. He's largely dominated all others, including eight takedowns in a fun fight with Jeremy Stephens in May on Stephens' native Iowa soil. "The Dragon" brings a solid balance of striking (+1.10 SSR) and wrestling (4.24 takedowns landed per 15) to the table and has never been finished as a pro.

Oki has dominated two late-notice opponents who normally fight at 145 pounds in his pair of UFC wins, so I'm taking his +2.29 SSR with a grain of salt. It might actually be a +18 striking differential over Chris Duncan (6-2 UFC) doing most of the heavy lifting behind his hype train, but he went on to get submitted in the bout.

Like Jones, Oki hasn't been knocked out as a pro. These are two granite chins. "The Zulu Warrior" tapped to Duncan, but Jones hasn't attempted a submission in UFC and doesn't have a win via sub on his record since the start of 2019.

I've modeled Jones a 54.3% favorite in this spot, so anything south of -120 is fine on his moneyline. The most value I see in this fight is it going the distance (76.0% of the time), and Jones gets that nod 42.1% of the time, per the model.

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Saint Denis to Win (+140)
Saint Denis Wins in Round 2 or 3 (+490)

This is a pivotal fight for Benoit Saint Denis, who was on a title trajectory behind a come-from-behind Dustin Poirier knockout.

Losing to Renato Moicano via doctor stoppage didn't help, either. He's now gone under the teaching of Nicolas Ott, Paddy Pimblett's head coach, after admitting to not having a coach at all entering those two fights. Zoinks.

For not having a coach, Saint Denis has done pretty well. He's got a +0.78 SSR despite poor striking defense (41%), and he's dominated the ground game with 4.19 takedowns and 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Every single professional win of "The God of War" has come inside the distance.

The striking defense issues are why most believe a Mauricio Ruffy knockout might be on the way. Ruffy has collected two in three starts, but his knockdown rate (1.81%) is just "really good" rather than special. It can't be ignored that Ruffy's SSR is negative (-0.05 SSR) because his one prolonged fight against James Llontop (0-3 UFC) was actually quite dicey.

Saint Denis' head defense might be poor, but he's notably taken some pretty tough beatings before going out in most cases. If he survives an early flurry with the Paris crowd behind him, I think the Frenchman's grappling storm could drag Ruffy into turbulent waters.

Nervously, I've modeled a Saint Denis win 56.6% of the time. Given Ruffy's historical prowess defending submissions, it would likely come later in the fight, but I don't want to entirely rule out BSD's first career win via decision, either.

Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho

Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+136)
Borralho Wins Inside the Distance (+360)

There's one element of this middleweight showdown that provides a little doubt.

I can't believe Caio Borralho cut down to 185 pounds before the middleweight title bout last month, so a second weight cut in a few weeks isn't ideal, but it also was long enough ago for Borralho to have recovered. If not for that, I'd feel better about him winning here.

"The Natural" has been flatly dominant in UFC even into the top 10. His striking accuracy (60%) and defense (62%) are impeccable when his takedown accuracy (60%) is actually the strength of his game. It'll be fascinating to see how he fares against Nassourdine Imavov's 78% takedown D.

Imavov's stock is sky-high off a knockout of Israel Adesanya that I called, but that's also why a reeling Adesanya doesn't forecast a ton about this bout. Most of Imavov's recent opponents are on a backslide in the rankings and making me question how much he's genuinely improved since a lopsided -59 striking differential in a loss to Sean Strickland in 2023. His opponents since Strickland have had an average age of 35.2.

The weight cut is why I feel most comfortable playing this fight's under when I've got it 57.8% likely to end early. This is an insane number for two middleweights with power and submission danger.

I've got Borralho winning by finish 33.7% of the time to Imavov's 24.1%, so that's the side I'll ladder with the total.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the UFC betting odds for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.