UFC Mexico: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Royval 2, taking place at Mexico City Arena in Mexico City on Saturday.

Muhammad Naimov vs. Erik Silva

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

If you drop to the bare bones of UFC handicapping, Muhammad Naimov seems like a slam dunk bet this week. I know I thought he was.

Naimov just bested Nathaniel Wood (7-3 UFC) via decision as a +285 underdog, and Erik Silva dropped his UFC debut. However, "Hillman" Naimov has a story that doesn't really stop there. He also came from behind in a battering to Jamie Mullarkey (5-5 UFC) and actually lost his fight to Collin Anglin (0-2) on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS). His results are all over the place, and his analytics explain why.

Per minute, Naimov's -1.29 striking success rate (SSR) is poor, including a 41% striking D that seems ripe for a knockout. Naimov's takedown accuracy (28%) and defense (57%) are both awful, too. If not for several uncalled fouls in the Wood fight that actually led to a formal appeal, he might have been in serious trouble fading down the stretch.

So, can we turn to Silva here? Well, the veteran of Mexico's regional scene will have the home crowd, and he's actually got brighter offensive metrics, landing 71% of his significant strike attempts and 80% of his takedowns so far. Silva was just rendered inactive by the pace of T.J. Brown (3-5 UFC) when they fought and was submitted for a second time professionally.

While many are locking in Naimov and moving on here, Silva should be able to land on Naimov's questionable defense. He could also continue to earn takedowns here. Training at elevation in Mexico City, the ingredients for an upset are there. Pro bettors are pros for a reason, but I have no clue why this line moved from -280 to -590 throughout the week.

Betting Verdict

• As this number widens, Silva's moneyline (+410) just gets more and more appealing. Naimov hasn't made a single UFC appearance that would merit prohibitive favorite status, and "King" has some tools to beat him.
• It's interesting to see under 2.5 rounds (-154) such a heavy favorite when three of these two's five combined UFC-affiliated appearances have hit the "over" on that. I'm leaning over because there have been no submission attempts on either side when both figure to want to grapple.

DFS Verdict

• Naimov ($22) should be a popular pick here with the way his moneyline correlates to the total, but I'll be holding my breath off the bat that Silva ($9) can find his wrestling and be the desirable side in DFS -- win or loss.

Felipe dos Santos vs. Victor Altamirano

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

A ranked fighter in your debut is an impossible ask, but impossible enough to be a -300 favorite in your next fight? I'm not sure.

Felipe dos Santos is largely getting a pass for his performance on short notice against Manel Kape (4-2 UFC) that went to a decision. I get it, but as someone always a bit lower on Kape than most, the peripherals were pretty poor. The Chute Box product posted a 32% striking accuracy and 38% striking defense while failing to secure all five takedown attempts. I can't confidently pin dos Santos as a multi-time UFC winner from just his debut.

On the flip side, Mexico's Victor Altamirano is the first of 11 Mexican-born fighters on the card, and he's also coming off a ranked defeat to Tim Elliott by decision. Elliott landed six of seven takedowns, denting Altamirano's takedown D to a less-than-stellar 63%. Despite just five UFC-affiliated appearances, we've got over 63 minutes of a sample on "El Magnifico" to verify he's pretty good.

Altamirano's +1.01 SSR has come with great striking accuracy (57%) and passable defense (53%), and he's also landed 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes on his own.

I just don't particularly understand dos Santos' betting line here. He's just 23 with obvious efficiency red flags from the debut, and Altamirano has been finished just once in 15 pro fights.

I'd make this line for him in a "finish only" betting market that was void if it went to the cards because he is the more dangerous fighter to finish this one, but the fight is -205 to go the distance for a reason, and dos Santos -- of the two -- faded badly in the third round last time out. If Altamirano weathers the early storm, I could very much see an upset here.

Betting Verdict

• Altamirano's moneyline (+235) is just too wide to ignore. Every box except pro finishing rate -- including experience, age, efficiency, and grappling upside -- appears to be checked in his direction, and this is a home game for the native of Mexico City.
• I actually lean toward this fight to not go the distance (+180). Both of these fighters land at least 5.00 significant strikes per minute historically, and that sort of pace could wilt one of them at elevation.
  • Altamirano's round-three prop (+2700) has been staring me in the face since it dropped considering dos Santos chose not to arrive early to acclimate to the altitude.

DFS Verdict

• Normally, a fight favored to go the distance and has a durable underdog would mean dos Santos ($20) won't be a common choice, but he's a prohibitive favorite with an 86% pro finishing rate in wins. I still prefer the underdog at $10.

Luis Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Denys Bondar

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This is the lowest-level fight on the card with two non-UFC winners. What could go wrong?

"Psycho" Denys Bondar is 0-2 in UFC with both losses realistically coming via finish. He broke his arm in the first round against Malcolm Gordon (2-5 UFC), which was more forgivable than his second loss to Carlos Hernandez (2-2 UFC). Hernandez actually finished the fight via ground strikes, but a "headbutt" found upon review in close quarters led to a technical decision that awarded him the win after the "foul."

Against entry-level competition, Bondar's -1.53 SSR is terrible thanks in large part to absorbing 6.42 significant strikes per minute. He has had much more success with his wrestling, posting 2.75 takedowns per 15 with 50% accuracy. Yet, time and time again, the Ukrainian chose not to use it against Hernandez's 65% takedown D.

Entering this fight, Luis Ronaldo Rodriguez has a 100% takedown D through his appearance on DWCS, which came in 2020 as he lost to soon-to-be UFC flameout Jerome Rivera (0-4 UFC). However, "Lazy Boy" was just 20 years old, and he's matured to score five straight wins -- mostly in Mexico's Lux Fight League. Three have come via early stoppage.

It's pretty telling that Rodriguez's dated stats mirror that of Bondar. He posted a -1.93 SSR that comes with 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes on 50% accuracy. The difference, of course, is that Bondar, 31, is a finished product now, and Rodriguez was far from one in 2020.

The Veracruz native has also never been finished professionally in MMA despite the age and experience lacking to this point, so I feel his floor is much higher than Bondar's now two early losses into what looks to be a lackluster UFC tenure.

Betting Verdict

• It's borderline irresponsible to strongly recommend either side of this fight given the tangible data behind these two, but Bondar's 62% takedown D should at least afford Rodriguez success in the wrestling department. He's my win pick at a -120 moneyline.
• Both fighters sport a 50% decision rate in their relevant samples. I'm truly stumped with this fight's total.

DFS Verdict

• I could see this fight being a complete and total DFS dud with a -128 chance to go all 15 minutes between fighters whose most success has come wrestling, but Rodriguez comes at the lower $15 salary when favored? I'll take that.

Fares Ziam vs. Claudio Puelles

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

This is the first of just three fights at UFC Mexico that I could model. That's because most of the country's brightest stars are firmly in the "prospect" category and don't meet the 45-minute threshold.

Neither of these two are from Mexico -- though Peru's Claudio Puelles isn't too far from home in Latin America. Puelles is coming off a nightmare fight that represented his true "L" in UFC after only having lost The Ultimate Fighter finale back in 2016 prior to that. Taking on Dan Hooker, Puelles -- a one-dimensional grappler -- went 0-for-8 on his takedown efforts and was resigned to distance with the ranked 155er. It predictably didn't go well.

Puelles (-1.11 SSR) will never be confused with a prime Max Holloway on the feet, but he can grapple. He's posted 2.41 takedowns per 15 minutes with 30% accuracy, adding 1.4 submission attempts per 15. "The Prince of Peru" holds the UFC record for kneebars (3) as a master of the rare submission.

This is a true stylistic clash with French striker Fares Ziam. Ziam outboxed Jai Herbert last July to bring his UFC record to 4-2, but he's ceded at least 61.1% of the fight in control time in both of his UFC losses. Ziam's +0.81 SSR is improving by the fight with an excellent 65% striking D, but "Smile Killer" is also looking for his first UFC knockdown to this day.

As a result, his wins all seem to devolve into these slow-paced decisions; he posts just 6.00 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes.

Both my model and I don't believe Ziam's 75% takedown defense tells the full story in this fight. Ziam was taken down and submitted by Terrance McKinney (5-3 UFC) in just 131 seconds, and McKinney's UFC record is similar to that of Puelles.

If Ziam had more of a power threat, I'd be concerned for Puelles selling out to get to his grappling, but without it, the underdog actually carries significantly more upside to finish this fight.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Puelles at 51.2% to win this fight, backing the anecdotal note I had prior to even diving deep here. This is a stylistic clash that is leaning more toward a pick 'em, and the +172 underdog carries most of the bout's potential to end in convincing fashion.
  • I've got Puelles winning by finish 22.1% of the time to Ziam's 2.4%.
• Nonetheless, the low finishing rates on both sides here have my model forecasting this bout to go the distance 75.5% of the time.
  • The Peruvian has two of his four UFC wins via decision. I'm not sure why Puelles' decision prop (+550) is so distant.

DFS Verdict

• I love Puelles in most formats this week, including daily fantasy. Even if he's not able to secure a submission or a ton of FanDuel points, the win bonus would go a long way at $12.

Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Sometimes in life, admitting when you're wrong can help avoid compounding mistakes. I'm doing that with Edgar Chairez this weekend.

I picked against Chairez in this exact matchup at Noche UFC in September, and "Puro Chicali" should have gotten the win. Chairez submitted Daniel Lacerda only for Lacerda to be bailed out by a terrible refereeing mistake surrounding the choke. On top of that, Chairez was totally comfortable at distance, landing 60% of his significant strikes to 28% for a more measured version of Lacerda.

This fight was then re-racked for October, and Lacerda pulled out due to a facial infection.

Frankly, Chairez is likely even more motivated by the antics and was the significantly better fighter in the 3:47 of octagon time we saw. The regional veteran didn't have much positive data entering that appearance, but it just seems Lacerda -- 0-5 in UFC -- can't cut the mustard.

Lacerda's -4.54 SSR and 8.70 significant strikes absorbed per minute are the worst on the card by a country mile, and he's yet to defend a takedown in UFC. I was a buyer of "Miojo" having three UFC knockdowns with nothing to show for them, but Chairez's striking D and durability never wavered in this small sample.

The 28-year-old Mexicali native is one of the card's largest favorites for good reason. Just over five months ago, all hypotheses on this potential matchup were squashed when Chairez completely dominated. UFC appears to be giving him one heck of an apology for all of the antics to finally settle the rematch in front of his home crowd.

As a final note, both of these fighters missed weight on Friday. In such a lopsided position, I don't really factor it into the equation much.

Betting Verdict

• After being on the opposite side of this fight in September, the data has changed, and it says Chairez's moneyline (-500) might even still be a bargain. He didn't lose a second of these two's prior bout.
  • Lacerda's cautious approach in the first fight still led to a fight-ending sequence in the first round, but the familiarity between these two grows. I actually like Chairez's second-round prop (+330) after a slower start.
• This fight is -650 to end early because of the underdog's reckless defensive strategy. I would be stunned to see this one go all 15 minutes.

DFS Verdict

• As humbling as it is to be so wrong originally, I'll take Chairez ($21) having a stellar profile for an MVP candidate this week as a nice consolation prize.
  • Every Lacerda opponent has posted at least 108 FanDuel points, and Chairez would have continued that trend if the submission wasn't reversed to a no-contest upon review.

Mateus Mendonça vs. Jesus Aguilar

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This is an exciting fight for those of us with an analytical background.

On paper, Jesus Aguilar is a significantly better fighter. Aguilar has two wins by finish, and his only UFC-affiliated loss to this stage came facing Tatsuro Taira (5-0 UFC). Aguilar isn't a favorite of many with suboptimal size (5'4") and reach (64"), but he's clearly put pen to paper thus far.

The grappler has posted 2.72 takedowns and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which hasn't come as a shock with six of his nine pro wins by submission to this stage. The shock was a 17-second knockout win over Shannon Ross to show a little power in the hands when his 63% striking D is also pretty strong. By the way, Aguilar submitted the aforementioned Edgar Chairez in September 2020 on the regional scene, too.

Yet, he's an underdog here to Mateus Mendonça, the toolsy Brazilian that sits 0-2 in UFC. In fairness to Mateus, his first two UFC opponents are 5-2 against all others, so he's not to be written off quite yet. However, the peripherals are pretty worrisome.

Mendonça's put together an impossibly poor striking accuracy (38%) and defense (26%) in a sample nearing 20 minutes, and he's also defended just 45% of opposing takedowns. His -4.25 SSR has only Lacerda beaten on this card.

At worst, Aguilar figures to have some success getting Mendonça down as others have. At best, it's possible Aguilar's power surge continues into a poor striking D. Without film acumen to know exactly how Mendonça would improve in this matchup, I have no choice but to back the slight 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• More than anything, I was looking to back Aguilar on the basis of his clean stats profile and forgivable Taira setback. Now, it comes against an 0-2 prospect who I've faded both times. I really tried to clear any bias here, but Aguilar's moneyline (+102) is one of my favorite bets on the card.
• Under 2.5 rounds is -152 in this one, which makes sense with just one UFC decision between this pairing. At altitude and with Mendonça cutting to 125 pounds, I'd also forecast an early stoppage.
  • I've already sprinkled small amounts on Aguilar's round-one prop (+600) and round-two prop (+800).

DFS Verdict

• Both fighters have an argument in a plus environment, but my affinity for Aguilar ($15) to win bleeds into my projection here.

Raoni Barcelos vs. Cristian Quinonez

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Raoni Barcelos might be fighting "Father Time" in this one just as much as Cristian Quinonez.

Barcelos might be the best fighter in UFC to never hold a ranking, defeating two currently ranked fighters amidst a 5-0 start in UFC, but the 36-year-old has dropped four of his last five bouts. The only exception was a decision dub over Trevin Jones (1-4 UFC). Bantamweight is so deep that Barcelos' missing pieces in the margins have cost him, but it's not like he's fighting poorly.

Raoni lands an excellent 5.38 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy and defends 61% of incoming significant strikes. He's also posted 1.87 takedowns per 15 with 37% accuracy, and his 90% takedown D might be the division's gold standard.

"Problema" Quinonez won his UFC debut by knockout over Khalid Taha (1-4 UFC), but his second appearance against Kyung-Ho Kang (8-4 UFC) saw him on the wrong end of a first-round finish via submission. Quinonez's striking accuracy (42%) is much worse than his defense (59%), and I don't quite trust Quinonez's 85% takedown D when most of that came on DWCS; Kang's first (and only) attempt was an easy one.

Oddsmakers are fearless, placing a fighter on a 1-4 skid as a -192 favorite. I'm just not overly concerned about Barcelos' age because of a decision loss to Kyler Phillips (5-1 UFC), and his durability hasn't been blemished by anyone this side of top-five contender Umar Nurmagomedov.

It's plausible Quinonez stamps this featured prelim with a signature win behind his power, but he's a knockout-or-bust proposition to me. Barcelos might still -- after all these years -- be a bit underrated.

Betting Verdict

• While not rushing to be on Raoni at a -192 moneyline, I do love Barcelos' submission prop (+430) in this fight. All four of Quinonez's pro losses have come via an early finish, and the altitude should boost these chances for all fighters on the board.
  • Quinonez's excellent striking D creates the lean toward a sub, and Raoni's power has dipped while aging.
• We've yet to see Quinonez hit a fifth UFC minute, so this fight is +172 to go the distance. Barcelos' potential attrition and the aforementioned altitude also factor into that number.

DFS Verdict

• Barcelos ($17) might be in the MVP mix on a card with worse favorites, but there are enough concerns -- including only topping 100 FanDuel points once in his last seven fights -- to resign him to flex consideration.

Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Kudos to Chris Duncan for standing in front of a sledgehammer like most 155ers wouldn't.

The Scottish bruiser is riding high off a 2-0 start to his UFC career, showing a well-roundedness his DWCS bout -- a complete and total first-round brawl -- wouldn't have implied. I've been most impressed by his wrestling, landing 3.63 takedowns per 15 with 39% accuracy. His striking might be a bit less certain, getting the best of Yanal Ashmouz (1-1 UFC) for 15 minutes after Ashmouz broke his arm early in the fight. Duncan's 49% striking D is quite the red flag.

That striking D is even more concerning when about to step in front of Manuel Torres' torrid start. Torres has produced three knockouts inside of four minutes with an absurd 4.84% knockdown rate. Two of his opponents are multi-time UFC winners, so it's not like he's crushed total cans as both have faced entry-level competition. He's also defended all six takedown attempts faced so far.

The question marks for Torres are... just about everything else. He's been submitted in both pro losses, and no one knows what Torres' gas tank at an absurd pace of 19.56 significant strikes per minute will look like when, inevitably, he's thrown his best punches at a man who still stands. That's the progressive fear moving up in competition at any level.

This line has steamed toward "El Loco" as the week has progressed. He was -130 on Sunday and now sits -188 on Friday. Skeptical of Torres' prolonged grappling and cardiovascular endurance, I missed the boat to back his moneyline. I still would pick him to win by exploiting Duncan's poor striking D, but this fight is capital "V" volatile.

Betting Verdict

• My weekly co-host on the Home of Fight YouTube channel, Matt Tanner, actually pointed out the best angle in this fight. Torres has six pro wins by submission, and Duncan's regional competition basically hasn't presented that threat at all in his entire MMA career.
  • With everyone likely betting Torres' round-one KO, a Torres submission (+600) later into the fight is an extremely realistic outcome given what he put out there regionally. Plus, Duncan wrestles to put himself in that spot.
• This fight is -650 to not go the distance, and that's going to be a near given for as long as Torres has a full "sprint from the opening bell" mindset.

DFS Verdict

• Torres ($17) has been a machine in this area, averaging 126.1 FanDuel points per fight in UFC. He should be excruciatingly popular but does carry some risk if this is the fight where he is prolonged to a spot where his gas tank fails. I prefer leaving him out of the MVP slot.

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

This fight should test the mettle of UFC bettors.

Yazmin Jauregui is the card's largest favorite (-650) after just disappointing as a -310 favorite last July. Denise Gomes (2-2 UFC) knocked her out in just 20 seconds, marking the second straight bout she's been dropped in the first round. Her chin is a bit iffy, but there's no doubting her skill.

The Tijuana native has dusted Iasmin Lucindo (2-1 UFC) and Istela Nunes (0-3 UFC), a feat even more impressive as Lucindo climbs the rankings herself. She's done so with a +1.39 SSR and a 100% takedown D that's yet to be blemished. She's a striker through and through, which proves for a clash of styles with "Sampage".

Additionally, Sam Hughes is no stranger to an upset, cashing all three of her UFC wins as an underdog at average odds of +197. However, Hughes' wins have all come via the grappling shortcomings of the aforementioned Nunes, Jacqueline Amorim (1-1 UFC), and Elise Reed (3-4 UFC). It's possible Jauregui has them, but we've yet to see her submitted professionally or downed inside the octagon.

This seems like a prime rebound spot for Jauregui. Hughes hasn't posted a UFC knockdown when power has been Yazmin's lone kryptonite, and Hughes' wrestling volume (1.13 takedowns per 15) ranks just third of Jauregui's four UFC-affiliated opponents so far. Hughes has gotten it going a little against fighters with an average takedown D of 30.7%, but it's not exactly a strength.

Hughes is durable with a modest striking D (54%) that doesn't necessarily mean Jauregui finds a KO in this spot, but she should be leaps and bounds ahead on the feet for as long as it stays there. I'm expecting many to take the upset shot with Hughes given this duo's respective last fights, but I don't see the underdog's clear path to victory.

Betting Verdict

• Jauregui's wobbly chin is unnerving as a massive favorite, but I do think she wins this fight comfortably. Her decision prop (-125) is likeliest for a reason here, but that puts plenty of faith in the judges.
  • I might just bet Jauregui's second-round KO (+950) and third-round KO prop (+1200) in the event this is as lopsided a striking match as it appears and call it a day.
• Two of Jauregui's three fights have ended early, which is a stark gap from divisional trends to see full 15-minute durations. I don't see a ton of value -- for or against -- within -164 odds this one goes to the cards.

DFS Verdict

• The projected lack of popularity around Jauregui ($23) at MVP is interesting with a path to a sizable score, but I've got three others for which I'd make a stronger case. She's a solid, contrarian flex play.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

UFC rarely makes matchmaking mistakes with future stars, and this matchup shows they're inclined to not let it happen again.

The 19-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. has to be on prospect watchlists when he's already a multi-time UFC winner before his 20th birthday, and the grappler seems to be in a great position here. In addition to an elite wrestling game that's seen him land 3.57 takedowns and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, he's coming off his first UFC knockout to show a bit of power in his hands.

Rosas' lone UFC defeat came to stud prospect Christian Rodriguez (3-1 UFC), who is hurdling toward the rankings. Even at a 2-1 record, this feels like a must-win for the youngster just because of this matchup. He's going to struggle quite a bit in UFC if he can't get by Ricky Turcios in what seems like a tailor-made matchup for him.

Turcios, a former The Ultimate Fighter winner, hasn't scored a knockdown since winning the show, and his 45% takedown D nearly cost him that title anyway. Turcios has ceded 13 takedowns in three UFC bouts, and he landed a laughable 11% of his significant strikes in the only appearance without surrendering one -- meaning his opponent didn't even need to consider a level change.

Kevin Natividad (0-3 UFC) just landed 7 of his 13 takedown attempts on Turcios with not nearly the pedigree that "El Niño Problema" already has. Rosas' 46% striking defense isn't great, but his youth, durability, and Turcios' lack of power all help ease those concerns.

I'd be most stunned by an upset in this fight of any on the card just because of how carefully it was selected for him.

Betting Verdict

• I see Rosas Jr.'s moneyline (-235) as one of the better parlay pieces on the card. Natividad's wrestling success -- out of nowhere -- should only mean the Mexican-born phenom can get to this to the mat early and often.
• Turcios was KO'd at distance on the regional scene in 2017, but I actually feel fine about his durability. I'm looking toward Rosas' decision prop (+195) and over 2.5 rounds (-150) in this spot when, undoubtedly, most will try to shortcut Rosas' huge moneyline with his inside-the-distance number (+145).

DFS Verdict

• Rosas Jr. ($18) attempts 10.82 takedowns per 15 minutes. I feel so good about his pace that I'm fine putting him in the MVP conversation while understanding the points might come via a lopsided decision.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

"The Golden Boy" will look to extend his winning streak to three on Saturday.

Daniel Zellhuber deserves that nickname with such skill at just 24 years old, but he's definitely still a work in progress. He hasn't flown through four UFC-affiliated appearances, per a +0.47 SSR. In fact, he was outlanded in his last fight with Christos Giagos (6-7 UFC) before a second-round anaconda choke -- the first sub attempts of his career -- to seal the deal.

I'm still in love with the tools. Zellhuber's 77" reach is massive for the division, he just put his BJJ black belt on display, and he's training with Eric Nicksick, 2023 MMA Coach of the Year, at Xtreme Couture. Futures don't get much brighter, but don't fully write off Francisco Prado in the present.

At 21, Prado is one of the youngest fighters on the roster and did what he had to do in his last bout. Ottman Azaitar (2-2 UFC) is a must-win to stay in UFC in 2024, and he stopped him via ground strikes in the first round. Nonetheless, Prado's debut against the aforementioned Jamie Mullarkey left a bad taste about his grappling prowess. He defended just one of Mullarkey's four takedowns and allowed 4:41 in control time.

I'm not expecting Zellhuber to wrestle, but Prado's 46% striking D is bad enough before considering an eight-inch reach disadvantage in this spot. Zellhuber's pace (13.49 significant strikes attempted per minute) is also a huge plus at altitude in his home country.

To this point, the younger Argentinian has used his physical tools and athleticism to crush cans, but having none of those advantages against Zellhuber could prove to be a massive issue.

Betting Verdict

• Though his data isn't perfect, Zellhuber is one of the better favorites on this card. His usual concerns, like age and experience, are actually advantages with much better historical defense.
  • I like Zellhuber's decision prop (+175) in this spot. This fight is -144 to not go the distance, but three of Zellhuber's four fights have, and Prado's never been historically finished. I'm surprised it is so lengthy.

DFS Verdict

• "The Golden Boy" could be an MVP candidate, but I prefer three others while leaning toward his fight having a good bit of length. His best spot could be a flex spot for a fair $19 salary.

Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega

Men's Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Five-Round Co-Main Event

I got an unexpected flurry of responses to the odd handicap on this rematch from July 2022. This fight is fascinating from a betting perspective.

In July 2022, Brian Ortega was a -175ish favorite over Yair Rodriguez, and in my estimation, he was living up to that billing in round one. "T-City" controlled 55.2% of the first round and landed 62% of his significant strikes to just 50% from Rodriguez. However, Ortega dislocated his shoulder trying to defend a submission, and the fight was stopped with Yair the TKO winner due to injury.

"El Pantera" used that win to earn an interim 145-pound title shot and submitted Josh Emmett to win it before getting stomped by former champ Alexander Volkanovski. Ortega, recovering from surgery, hasn't fought since their bout. The layoff -- and this fight at elevation in Rodriguez's native Mexico -- have Rodriguez now sitting as a -152 favorite in the rematch.

I really just don't get it. Ortega hasn't been knocked out at distance in his entire career, and Rodriguez's defensive grappling is notoriously poor. His 59% takedown D led to a career-high in mat returns for Volkanovski (7). Ortega hasn't been the most reliable wrestler ever at 0.95 per 15 minutes (23% accuracy), but he can do it as we saw in their first matchup.

Plus, Yair's low 0.35% knockdown rate likely means he'll have to stop Ortega via exhaustion or submission. The elevation could increase the case for the former, but no one has submitted Ortega, arguably the division's best BJJ player.

My model has aged out some of Ortega's submission danger, which we last saw in December 2017. However, that's because he's been knocking guys down (or out) to win since that point. Knowing that while the algorithm still says Rodriguez is overvalued, I'm trusting my gut and calling the upset.

Betting Verdict

• As mentioned, I've only got Rodriguez as a -145 favorite when the model is giving him a higher chance to submit Ortega than vice versa. With that advantage pretty much known in the underdog's direction, I'm extremely confident Yair is favored for the wrong reasons in this space.
• The model has this fight at 52.8% to go the distance, but Ortega's decision equity might be even lower than the 21.3% forecasted by the model when not training at altitude. I'm leaning under 2.5 rounds (+126) in this spot.
  • The elevation should be a contention point for several totals on this card.

DFS Verdict

• Rodriguez ($16) should be one of the more popular favorites on the card, but I'm going with an upset that could be very relevant in this space if finished early. Ortega ($14) is one of my favorite value plugs.

Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

These two met in a three-rounder in November 2020 that set up Brandon Moreno's historical quadrilogy with Deiveson Figueiredo and a title run.

Brandon Royval's shoulder popped out in a hectic first round that Moreno largely controlled. "The Assassin Baby" spent 3:01 in charge after landing a pair of takedowns, which is always a theme or concern for Royval (40% takedown defense). However, Moreno also landed 47% of his significant strikes to 32% for Royval. It's been tough to tell if the "Raw Dawg" has actually improved to make things more competitive.

Royval's +16 striking differential in his title shot against current champ Alexandre Pantoja does catch the eye, but he also ceded eight takedowns to lose comfortably. Moreno had a +18 differential and was only planted six times. Royval's power (1.12% knockdown rate) and submission danger (1.5 attempts per 15 minutes) can be a great equalizer, but his efficiency is frighteningly poor, landing and defending below 45% of significant strikes against all.

My model has always struggled with Moreno, allowing me to correctly call Pantoja's upset of him last July. Still, I do think it's overall undervaluing his current form due to an inefficient, 3-2-1 start before this division was absolved in 2019 and all 125ers were released from UFC.

At worst, the favorite should be able to wrestle as he did in the first bout. Moreno's 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes with modest accuracy (45%) are more than enough to trump Royval's non-existent wrestling D.

UFC rematches of fights that went beyond the first couple of minutes rarely produce significantly different results. I'm expecting the Tijuana native to cruise in his home country.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Moreno at -130 here, but I feel even better than my model. It gives a 70.4% weighted grappling edge to him in this spot along with age and level of competition advantages. Royval's power is a concern -- but largely the only one.
• The model expects this fight to end early 54.3% of the time. It wouldn't surprise me to see a more mature approach from Royval lead to additional length, but Moreno has quietly finished his last four wins and has never been stopped inside the distance.

DFS Verdict

• On this card of shaky favorites, Moreno ($21) is one of my stronger confidence picks with a fight favored to end early. He'll be chalky, but I'll have MVP exposure like most.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.