UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bets and Props: Whittaker vs. de Ridder

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Abu Dhabi: Whittaker vs. de Ridder, taking place at the Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on Saturday.

UFC Abu Dhabi Betting Picks

Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci

Ricci to Win (+156)

I wanted to back Amanda Ribas to end her two-fight skid here, but the -194 odds in her favor have swung out of control for what Ribas has shown recently.

Yes, Ribas' 83% takedown defense is quite good when Tabatha Ricci's -1.11 striking success rate (SSR) shows she definitely hasn't excelled at distance. Ribas has a +1.05 SSR. However, Amanda has been taken down and controlled for a total of over 11 minutes in her last three fights, losing at least one round in all of them.

Ricci's exceptional strength and physicality has allowed her to attempt 7.41 takedowns per 15 minutes and land a decent clip of them (37%). At 30, she's at the UFC median championship age compared to Ribas, who turns 32 in August.

Ultimately, Ribas has lost five of her last seven fights, and the exceptions were tight decisions. She just can't be given this number against a durable opponent with great pace.

I've got Ricci 44.6% likely to win (+125 implied). Even though a decision (33.8%) is the most likely path to victory for "Baby Shark", I'm actually higher on her implied inside-the-distance odds (+830) than FanDuel (+900). I'll stick to the moneyline.

Davey Grant vs. Da'Mon Blackshear

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (-122)
Blackshear by Submission (+220)

I've long said Da'Mon Blackshear has proven a top-five ground game in UFC's bantamweight division.

In addition to one of three "twister" submissions ever in UFC, "Da Monster" attempts 1.6 submissions per 15 minutes and has secured a sub in three of his five UFC wins. It's pretty terrifying for the rest of this division that he abandoned a ground strategy to just beat up Alatengheili for a +64 striking differential on the feet in April.

I don't suspect he'll mess around with Davey Grant's +1.34 SSR there. Grant's knockdown rate (0.48%) is decently high with three UFC wins by (T)KO.

Instead, "Dangerous" Davey has a common path to defeat. His 61% takedown D is mediocre, and three of his six UFC losses have come via submission.

Because Blackshear's chin is still a question mark after a knockout loss in seconds last July, my main play on this fight will be it to not go the distance. I've got that at 55.3% likely.

A whopping 35.9% of the time, that finish is a Da'Mon Blackshear submission. He's subbed every single opponent on his UFC record that also was submitted at any other point with the promotion, and Grant certainly qualifies.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov to Win (+116)
Nurmagomedov by Submission (+400)

There's no doubt that Bryce Mitchell could be a monster after successfully cutting to 135 pounds starting this weekend.

The grappler already has a sporty 8-3 record at featherweight with that style that requires physical strength, and his three losses -- Ilia Topuria, Jean Silva, and Josh Emmett -- aren't bad ones. However, Mitchell's worst tendencies and issues could also be a problem in this new weight class.

Said Nurmagomedov is a perfect opponent. Nurmagomedov has wrapped up three front chokes in UFC with extreme quickness, so "Thug Nasty" better watch his neck. Of course, Nurmagomedov's speed and striking (+1.13 SSR) will be an advantage over Mitchell (+0.80 SSR), and that's where I'm worried Bryce falls further behind against smaller, faster guys.

This fight will all come down to Nurmagomedov's 62% takedown D, but I can't help but see Mitchell falling into a sub. I've got Said as 53.5% likely to win this bout, and it's a submission 27.9% of the time.

You'd think to yourself "surely Mitchell has prepared for front chokes and won't get caught with one", right? Well, one of UFC's dimmest bulbs can't be given that benefit of the doubt when Valter Walker continues to win in the dumbest fashion possible himself. This sport always finds a way.

Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Barriault to Win (+470)
Barriault by Points (+1000)

Did the Shara Magomedov fade opportunity pass, or did the everpresent opportunity just finally hit?

"Bullet" has everything required to be a fan favorite between his exciting, kick-heavy style and famed, pirate-like appearance, but he just hasn't put forth the results in the octagon to merit this number. Shara's +1.74 SSR was puffed up against entry-level competition, but he's on a two-fight streak of losing the distance strike differential to Armen Petrosyan (-12) and Michael Page (-4). His 42% striking defense is horrific.

Marc-Andre Barriault's (52%) is significantly higher, and the Canadian pressure boxer attempts 12.81 significant strike attempts per minute. Building throughout the fight via forward pressure is sort of his MO.

I think UFC sees Barriault's three losses via (T)KO as an opportunity for Shara to collect a highlight -- and he might. However, the odds that Marc-Andre can really crowd the kicking game of Shara are significantly undervalued here. He went toe-to-toe with a nearly identical style to his against Chris Curtis (6-4 UFC), and Curtis wouldn't be a +470 'dog to beat Shara. Plus, "Powerbar" is the one of these two with a pro win via submission.

I've got Magomedov just 52.7% likely to win this fight, leaving a ton of value on Marc-Andre as the underdog. My model sees Barriault (31.3%) winning this fight more often via decision than Shara (30.4%). I'd love my chances if this one makes it to the cards.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.