UFC 320 DFS Picks: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 320: Anakalev vs. Pereira 2, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.

UFC 320 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Ateba Gautier ($23)

It's Dana White Contender Series (DWCS) season, meaning every passing bout with an alum could just be an ad. This one with Gautier definitely is. FanDuel's UFC 320 odds list the Cameroonian fighter -1800 to win against Tre'ston Vines, who takes this fight on a couple of days' notice simply for a second shot at UFC down the road. Gautier's +4.74 striking success rate (SSR) and 3.16% knockdown rate (KD%) have mowed through two straight fighters who previously had, before fighting "The Silent Assassin", not lost in UFC via (T)KO.

Veronica Hardy ($21)

Hardy's 4-4 record in the women's flyweight division isn't exactly special, but she's being handed a layup in the former of Brogan Walker (0-2 UFC). Walker hasn't fought in over two years, and she defended a measly 11% of takedown attempts faced in two previous lopsided losses. Hardy has been good enough securing takedowns (41% accuracy) to think she can ground this foe and look for a finish. Hardy dominated Julianna Miller with four takedowns and 7:36 in control time in 2023, and Miller finished Walker with ground strikes in 2022 before that.

Youssef Zalal ($19)

If UFC is trying to push "The Moroccan Devil", this was the perfect matchup to give him. Zalal averages 2.09 takedowns and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and Josh Emmett's 46% takedown D is awful. Emmett was also submitted on his only career attempt faced in 2023. I'm not sure he can grapple at all, and Zalal has subbed three of the four opponents he's faced since returning to UFC. With the right gameplan, this could look easy. My model has Zalal 50.6% likely to score an early finish.

Patchy Mix ($18)

As I noted on Twitter, it seems UFC scoured the Earth for the easiest realistic matchup to get their return on investment on former Bellator 135-pound champ Patchy Mix's contract. Mix was embarrassed with striking and wrestling limitations in his ranked debut against Mario Bautista, so newcomer Jakub Wiklacz is a massive step down in competition from Poland's regional scene. Wiklacz has been stopped in all three pro losses coming as recently as 2020, so Mix will look to add to his 75% career pro finishing rate -- much of which was built against tougher competition with the now-extinct promotion.

Jiri Prochazka ($16)

I was stunned my model believes so heavily in Jiri Prochazka's win odds (68.1%) when I've had the Czech fighter modeled in pick 'ems his entire career. That's a product of elite offense (5.74 significant strikes landed per minute) with porous 43% striking D. However, Khalil Rountree's striking D (49%) isn't much better, and his -0.45 SSR is much worse. As noted in my UFC 320 best bets, my model sees a path of least resistance with Jiri's grappling, too.

Value Plays to Target

Alex Pereira ($15)

I'm sure "Poatan" will be a popular click in this range as one of UFC's most popular fighters ever, but he may not be as popular as usual when the 38-year-old faced pretty hefty adversity in his first fight with Magomed Ankalaev. I do think that he can pull an improbable upset to wrestle the belt back, though. Pereira's volume was suppressed in that fight in perhaps a paralyzation from Ankalaev's takedown threat, and you can never rule out his 1.08 KD% from finding a chin. I modeled Pereira 59.7% likely to win this matchup before March's close decision loss, and I've still got him 49.0% likely despite months of aging and that unappealing sample.

JooSang Yoo ($14)

The only true pick 'em on the card is a featherweight matchup between Daniel Santos ($15) and JooSang Yoo. We only got 28 seconds of a sample with Yoo in a first-round knockout of Jeka Saragih (1-3 UFC), but I don't mind a contrarian pivot to his power when converted bantamweight Daniel Santos is giving up size and four inches in reach to the South Korean fighter. Santos' three wins have come over fighters a combined 8-10 in UFC, and a -0.22 SSR across all bouts isn't a particularly strong display of skill. The favorite also doesn't seem to have his weight issues under control.

Cory Sandhagen ($12)

The best fighters at bantamweight often fight competitive bouts that go the distance. Cory Sandhagen did against Umar Nurmagomedov, who also took current champion Merab Dvalishvili to a split decision. Merab's two dominant efforts against Sean O'Malley showed "Suga" is not on that level, but Sandhagen's improving wrestling D (63%) and undeniable success at the top of this division (+1.74 SSR) deserved a shot at "The Machine" (+1.83 SSR). My model sees Sandhagen as 43.1% likely to win because, on paper, the gap just isn't wide between these two's resumes -- especially when Sandhagen has fought seven current ranked fighters to Dvalishvili's four.

Ramiz Brahimaj ($11)

The path to upside is obvious for Brahimaj, who has found a first-round stoppage in four of his last six UFC fights. The welterweight is clearly improving under Belal Muhammad's tutelage, and 35-year-old Austin Vanderford has still been finished in two of his four pro fights since the start of 2022 despite a successful UFC debut against Nikolay Veretennikov (1-2 UFC). I have no idea why this line is so wide when both still have a ton to prove with this promotion.

Andre Muniz ($10)

If you want a swing at upside, Andre Muniz is my model's favorite balance of win probability (41.8%) and chances to score a finish (27.7%) in what is sure to be a short -- but chaotic -- battle with Edmen Shahbazyan. Muniz has been knocked out in three of his last four, and Shahbazyan can certainly find the button with power, but this fight being -152 to start Round 2 gives me unusual confidence that the Brazilian can weather the early storm and find a 5th UFC win by finish in 12 tries. After all, "The Golden Boy" has been a shaky win pick for a half decade.

Get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on a 3+ leg parlay wager on any UFC 320 fights/events taking place on October 4th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the UFC betting odds for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.