UFC 311 DFS Picks: Makhachev vs. Moicano

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano, taking place at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California on Saturday.

UFC 311 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Rinya Nakamura ($22)

Especially after disappointing bettors and DFS players alike in his last bout, Rinya Nakamura is one of my favorite plays this week.

He's just +185 to win inside the distance against Muin Gafurov after going all 15 minutes with Carlos Vera (0-1 UFC), but Nakamura's tremendous tendency for submission attempts (1.6 per 15 minutes) and explosive moments on the feet (3.13% knockdown rate) are prime for finishes against a fighter that's 1-2 in UFC overall.

Gafurov's last ugly decision doesn't hide concerns about poor striking defense (50%) or endurance, and he was submitted by Said Nurmagomedov just 15 months ago.

Overall, Nakamura's last matchup was a designed hit from UFC with a debutant to test his grappling-heavy style. Getting through it could allow his physical tools to now take over a below-average 135er on paper.

Jailton Almeida ($21)

No model-eligible fighter returned a higher chance for a finish than "Malhadinho" this week, so I'd be a fool to ignore him here.

I've got Jailton Almeida at 46.3% likely to find a finish, so I prefer to get my exposure to him here in DFS than a lofty -200 line to win via finish.

Either way, Almeida is one of heavyweight's fastest surging contenders, putting forth 6.85 takedowns and 2.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes against a division with weak grapplers. Serghei Spivac (70% takedown D) is probably a tougher matchup for him than most, but so was Moldova's Alexandr Romanov, who he submitted in 147 seconds.

Notably, Almeida's delivered here every single bout. Even with a decision and a loss on the record, he's averaged 110.3 FanDuel points (FDP) per fight.

Bogdan Guskov ($19)

Firmly out of the MVP mix, Bogdan Guskov probably builds on his quiet run toward the light heavyweight rankings on Saturday.

Guskov's original bout with Johnny Walker was a battle of sluggers, but California's Billy Elekana will bring the same sort of tenor to this one. It's a rock 'em, sock 'em big guy fight that is -370 to not see its full distance.

Of course, that means a seminal blow could lead to a huge upset, which is why Elekana is just the card's seventh-longest underdog on a few days' notice.

Still, Guskov's UFC experience and 4.08% knockdown rate should be comfortably favored here. He's +190 to win by first-round (T)KO and secure at least 100 FDP.

Grant Dawson ($18)

Is Grant Dawson a finisher now?

My model believes he could be again on Saturday, forecasting it 36.6% likely against 40-year-old Carlos Diego Ferreira, a.k.a. "CDF".

Ferreira's endurance-related upset of Mateusz Rebecki (4-1 UFC) hasn't aged poorly, but his 60% takedown D has gotten him in trouble against lightweight wrestlers before. He's ceded at least four takedowns in four of his last five fights, and two of those scraps were (T)KO losses.

Dawson isn't an MVP candidate with his decision prop (+160) the most likely outcome, but being the first man to finish Rafa Garcia (4-4 UFC) was a sign that the Floridian might finally be trying to make more emphatic statements to re-enter the 155-pound rankings.

Value Plays to Target

Reinier de Ridder ($15)

Kevin Holland's record against 185-pound grapplers is atrocious. Here's one of the most accomplished outside of UFC ever.

Reinier de Ridder didn't take long to make an emphatic splash with UFC. He dropped Gerald Meerschaert (11 UFC submissions), took him down five times, and submitted him in Round 3. Middleweight has a new submission ace.

I'm a fan of Holland's, but he might need a new agent. He's lost to four straight fighters weighing in north of 170 pounds that average at least 1.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. Two were by finish. de Ridder (6.39 per 15) certainly qualifies.

"Big Mouth" is down to a 54% takedown defense overall. He'll have to find a knockout to win this fight but hasn't knocked down a middleweight in 16 appearances (August 2020).

Merab Dvalishvili ($14)

As mentioned in my UFC 311 best bets, if you're going to give me a fighter who has 14 of his last 16 rounds in the bargain bin, I'll take it.

Umar Nurmagomedov, the undefeated cousin of Khabib, is this division's boogeyman, but Merab, a.k.a. "The Machine", has shut down more technical fighters like Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Sean O'Malley with his pace, grappling, and endurance before. He is no normal matchup.

Averaging 16.92 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, Dvalishvili will put up FDP in a fight that's -260 to go the entire distance. He's averaged 104.0 FDP per fight despite decisions -- many just three rounds -- in 11 of his 13 career fights.

Especially given Nurmagomedov's 50% decision rate thus far, the favorite's $YY salary is a tough sell until we see a fighter beat the champion -- much less in convincing fashion.

Ailin Perez ($13)

I'll admit the line movement around Karol Rosa-Ailin Perez is a bit spooky. On Monday, Perez jumped from roughly +140 to +230, which could signify an injury.

Without one, my model would argue Perez should be favored here. I don't know how you could watch Rosa's effort against the last fighter to attempt at least three takedowns against her, Sara McMann, and think otherwise. The now-cut McMann posted four takedowns (on six tries) and 10:27 in control time.

"Fiona" Perez attempts 10.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a good amount of them (51%), and she's coming off her first showcase of finishing upside: a first-round sub of Darya Zhelezniakova (1-1 UFC).

Forecasting the underdog to win 57.3% of the time, I've got to use her in DFS and hope she's healthy.

Clayton Carpenter ($11)

If Makhachev and Nurmagomedov are the fierce dragons in this meme, Tagir Ulanbekov might be the silly one from Khabib's training camp.

Ulanbekov just hasn't quite made that ranked statement in this division with a decision over Bruno Silva (4-4 UFC) his only triumph. Tim Elliott beat Ulanbekov in 2022. MMA Lab prospect Clayton Carpenter's elite peripherals are worth the plunge in this spot.

Carpenter has mowed through three UFC-affiliated foes with a +1.85 SSR while averaging 2.95 takedowns per 15. His one analytical wart is having not faced a takedown. which is no small thing against a native of Dagestan. However, that also shows the historical aversion to test the 28-year-old there.

The undefeated American is someone I've got labeled as a future title challenger, and my model sees him as a top-10 flyweight already. He shouldn't be a longshot to defeat the flawed Ulanbekov.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.