2025 Rebel Stakes Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

The richest spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, the one at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, continues Sunday, February 23, with the Rebel Stakes. It had originally been scheduled for Saturday, but was pushed out a day due to severe winter weather. The race offers a colossal $1.25 million purse, and a full field of 14 is expected to line up.

In addition to the seven-figure purse, the race offers 50-20-15-10-5 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. That virtually guarantees the winner a spot in the starting gate, and the next few across the wire are in a good spot if they run well in another prep or two.

The race is the third of four points races at the Hot Springs track. The series began with the Smarty Jones Stakes, won by Coal Battle on January 4. It continued with the Southwest (G3), which Speed King won on January 25. Both Coal Battle and Speed King return to the fray for the Rebel. The series concludes March 29 with the Arkansas Derby, the 100-point extravaganza that ends the Arkansas spur of the Kentucky Derby trail.

The most important winner of the Rebel so far is American Pharoah (2015), who began his sophomore campaign in the race for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and went on to be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Other important 21st-century winners of the Rebel Stakes include Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Smarty Jones (2004); Preakness Stakes winner, Belmont Stakes runner-up, and two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (2007); and sophomore champion Will Take Charge (2013).

Rebel Stakes 2025 Information

• Race Date: Sunday, February 23, 2025
• Track: Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort
• Post Time: 5:23 p.m. Central Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Rebel Stakes Odds

Here are the entrants for the 2025 Rebel Stakes, including their post positions, trainers, jockeys, and official morning-line odds from Oaklawn. With a full field of 14, this will be one of the best betting races of the entire Kentucky Derby prep season!

Rebel Stakes Prep Results

Nine of the runners in the Rebel come out of stakes races, including five from points races at Oaklawn. Four of the horses in the Rebel last raced in the Southwest (G3) on January 25: Speed King, Sandman, and Tiztastic swept the podium spots in that order, while Publisher will try to rebound from a troubled sixth. Coal Battle, winner of the Smarty Jones in his last start, is the only one who made his last start there.

Four other horses come out of stakes races, including two from Kentucky Derby points races at other tracks. Madaket Road comes out of a third-place finish behind champion Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita, while Innovator also earned some Derby points with a close third in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. Bullard comes out of a third-place finish in the San Vicente (G3) at Santa Anita; he earned no Derby points because it was a seven-furlong race but he did have to face current Kentucky Derby futures favorite Barnes. Smoken Wicked makes his first start since a five-length score against state-breds in the Louisiana Futurity on December 29 at Fair Grounds.

The other five came out of victories in various non-stakes races. Admiral Dennis has the classiest last-out line among that group, winning a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds on January 20. Hot Gunner beat non-winners of two lifetime in an allowance on January 19 at Sam Houston, while Brereton’s Baytown dropped for a tag for the first time and beat $40,000 claimers on February 1 at Laurel. Hypnus comes out of a 1 1/16-mile maiden win at Fair Grounds on January 18, while Dreaminblue earned his diploma going six furlongs at Oaklawn on January 25.

Rebel Stakes Contenders

These are the contenders in the 2025 Rebel at Oaklawn Park, organized by post position:

1. Coal Battle: He tries graded stakes for the first time, but there is a lot to like. He wired the Smarty Jones from the outside in a short field … but two back in the Springboard Mile, he rallied to beat Southwest winner Speed King after drawing the fence in a 12-horse field and making a late run. He has never lost on the dirt, he can adapt to different posts and race shapes, and he has the tools he needs to take another step down the Kentucky Derby trail.
2. Admiral Dennis: He was well beaten as the odds-on favorite in the Gun Runner in December at Fair Grounds, so trainer Brad Cox gave him a class drop. That worked out nicely; he tracked a few lengths off the pace, cleared off midstretch, and held on to win by three-quarters of a length in a race where the third-place horse has already returned to win. However, that was also his first race with Lasix, and now he goes back off it for this race. His second-out maiden win shows some possibility to move forward again, even without it … but that was a one-turn mile. In short, signals are mixed, so at least demand a price.
3. Sandman: Coming off a smart allowance win at Oaklawn in December, he was a promising prospect for the Southwest. It looked like all chances were gone after a terrible break, but he made an impressive rally in the lane and fell only a length short of catching Speed King in the end. If he builds on that race at all he shapes as a serious contender. On the other hand, his poor start in the Southwest was not the only time he started badly in a race, meaning that he may still need some more time to get his head right.
4. Hypnus: The least experienced horse in the race, Hypnus has only run once. That one start was good, however: in a maiden race at Fair Grounds he handled the slop well, rallying to win by open lengths despite being well off the pace early, a pace that was honest but not torrid. He did so for Kenny McPeek, a trainer who doesn’t always have his horses cranked first-time out. He steps up in class for the Rebel and will have a dry track for the first time, but any improvement on his debut gives him price potential.
5. Madaket Road: He stretched out to two turns for the first time in the Robert B. Lewis, but flattened late and ended up no match for the top two. Perhaps making his second start at two turns could move him forward, and it’s hard not to respect a Bob Baffert shipper to Arkansas given how many Kentucky Derby preps he has won at Oaklawn. The gate is good, he has passed horses to win, and jockey Irad Ortiz is a positive. But, in such a large field full of promising horses, the dull two-turn debut is a huge concern.
6. Publisher: He was mustering a rally in the lane in the Southwest last out before getting shoved into the fence midstretch; the horse who did so was disqualified and placed behind him. Had he not run into trouble he probably wouldn’t have won, but he probably would have outrun his 53-1 odds that day. It wasn’t a bad showing for a maiden, and the jockey upgrade from Eric Asmussen to Flavien Prat also raises eyebrows in a good way. Especially after trainer Steve Asmussen popped with long shot Magnitude in the Risen Star, perhaps this one may be set to outrun his odds and at least hit the exotics.
7. Dreaminblue: It took him four starts to get off the mark, which he finally did on January 25 over the local course. He broke his maiden in fast fashion—but now has to prove he can do the same at two turns. His only previous two-turn effort was a disappointing one, though, where he failed as the favorite in a one-mile race at Oaklawn back in December. That’s a mixed bag: he has some pedigree appeal for it, but trainer Randy Morse’s record stretching out horses after a couple of sprint tries is not encouraging.
8. Innovator: He has run eight times already, so we know what we’re going to get with him. And, if he’s on form that day, what we’re going to get is speed, speed, speed. He likes to jump to the front and see how long he can take them around. He is certainly fast, and has even shown sprint speed—but with Smoken Wicked and Speed King outside of him, he is going to have to do the dirty work and may not have a lot left late.
9. Smoken Wicked: He vaulted into the graded-stakes ranks after an impressive debut maiden win last year against Louisiana-breds, but after four straight defeats in stakes company he dropped in class. An open allowance win at Churchill Downs got him back on track, and then he has emphatically beaten Louisiana-breds in his last two starts. The question now is … has he grown up, or does he have a class ceiling?
10. Bullard: He rallied to win his first two starts at Del Mar, but regressed against Baffert foes like Barnes and Romanesque in the San Vicente. Some horses prefer either Santa Anita or Del Mar, so that could have been part of it. It is interesting that Bullard ships out for this, though … there are few trainers more shrewd about picking who to ship across the country than Michael McCarthy, which is a serious point in Bullard’s favor. Furthermore, he can pass horses, and he has some interesting distance potential being by Gun Runner from a spur of the family of Better than Honour.
11. Speed King: In three starts he has never run a bad race: he graduated on debut as well as last out in the Southwest, and missed by only half a length when run down by Coal Battle—who he faces again here—in the Springboard Mile. In all of his races, he has set the pace, something he will probably be asked to do again. It won’t be an easy task: he may lose ground from the near-outside gate, and he has some very fast horses like Innovator and Smoken Wicked inside him. But, if he can outgun them or find a new stalking gear, a win is not out of the question.
12. Brereton’s Baytown: With nine starts, he has more racing experience than most, but he has been well beaten in many of his starts at top-tier tracks. He broke his maiden over the slop at Charles Town three starts back, and got another win last out at Laurel while dropping into a claimer. His recent form is the best of his career, but he has also been facing lesser horses and has not yet shown what he probably needs to in order to jump into the deep end and be a serious contender.
13. Tiztastic: Although two of his foes in this race beat him in the Southwest, it was still a good effort, especially since he ran into some trip trouble that day. The ability to handle it and keep going should help him this time around, especially since he has to handle an even bigger field. And, if the horses on and near the lead actually get locked up in a battle and set a quick pace, his late pace suggests that this consistent horse can make one of the better runs in the lane.
14. Hot Gunner: Both of his wins have come in Texas, but he has yet to bring his better form outside of the Lone Star State. None of his races are anywhere near fast enough to compare with the top of this field so far, and he risks losing a lot of ground from this parking lot post. In short, he would be a surprise.

Rebel Stakes Past Winners Past Performances

With the race split into two divisions in 2019, there have been eleven editions of the Rebel in the last ten years. Out of those winners, just one came out of the traditional local prep, the Southwest: Long Range Toddy (2019) finished third.

All three last-out stakes winners to win the Rebel in that time have come from California and have been trained by Bob Baffert: American Pharoah (2015) last ran in the FrontRunner (G1) (the race now called the American Pharoah), while both Nadal (2020) and Concert Tour (2021) came out of the San Vicente. Baffert, still ineligible for the Kentucky Derby, has not shipped a horse for the Rebel in 2025.

The three other recent Rebel Stakes winners to come from stakes company are Un Ojo, who was second in the Withers (G3) before going to the Rebel; Confidence Game (2023), who came out of a third-place finish in the Lecomte (G3); and Timberlake (2024), who was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) before the Rebel.

The four other winners in the last ten years all won the Rebel in their stakes debut. Cupid (2016) and Omaha Beach (2019) both came into the race off of maiden special weight wins at Santa Anita, facing winners for the first time in Arkansas. Malagacy (2017) and Magnum Moon (2018), for Todd Pletcher, won allowances at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, respectively.

Rebel Stakes Undercard

The Rebel is the 11th of 12 races on Oaklawn’s Sunday card, which was originally scheduled for Saturday but moved to Sunday due to severe winter weather. The $500,000 Razorback Handicap for older dirt horses is the other graded-stakes race on the card. Other stakes on the calendar include the Honeybee, a $500,000 Kentucky Oaks prep for sophomore fillies, the $150,000 Carousel for older filly and mare sprinters, and the Trivista Overnight Stakes for older two-turn fillies and mares.

With great stakes action and big fields all day long, Saturday is an excellent day to bet Oaklawn. Stay tuned to FanDuel TV all day for the latest news and live footage of the races, and make sure to wager on the card through FanDuel!

Oaklawn Park History

Back in 1905, the Hot Springs Mayor declared a half-day holiday for the opening of Oaklawn Park, with over 3,000 people attending the track on its first day of racing. The holiday heralded the beginning of a tradition that has lasted for over a century!

Due to political issues, no racing took place at Oaklawn between 1907 and 1916, but after a sustained period of action, the now-famous Arkansas Derby was inaugurated in 1936 with a purse of $5,000 offered to entrants.

By 1952, Oaklawn could boast daily attendances of almost 8,000 people and an average daily handle of well over $400,000, figures which rose by the turn of the decade to 10,000 and $500,000, respectively, with the Arkansas Derby purse increasing to $50,000 by 1965.

The track continued to go from strength to strength, and during a 50-day meeting in 1970, an average of 11,000 people were attending daily, with over $43,000,000 wagered over the course of the meet.

In the mid-70s, Oaklawn gave birth to the Racing Festival of the South, with pari-mutuel wagering amounting to a cool $80,000,000 that season, and by the 80s, over a quarter of a million people were attending the festival each year. By then, the purse for the Arkansas Derby was up at $500,000, and a new single-day attendance record was set with 71,000 showing up to see Rampage win the big race in 1986.

Ten years later, Arkansas Derby day saw a total handle of over $10.5 million, and by the turn of the millennium, Oaklawn was still seeing increases in attendance and wagering, meaning the track stands as one of the best in the country at present.

Rebel Stakes FAQ

Q: When is the Rebel Stakes?

A: The 2025 Rebel Stakes will be run on Sunday, February 23, at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas, with post scheduled for 5:23 p.m. Central Standard Time. It had originally been set for Saturday, but was pushed out a day due to a blast of winter weather. The Rebel will be run as the 11th of 12 races on the day.

Q: Where is the Rebel Stakes?

A: It takes place at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort in Hot Springs, Arkansas

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Rebel Stakes?

A: Trainer Bob Baffert has the most Rebel wins with 8, most recently in 2021 with Concert Tour. Baffert can extend his record to nine with Madaket Road, who ships out from California.

Q: Who is the favorite for the 2025 Rebel Stakes?

A: The lukewarm 4-1 morning-line favorite for the 2025 Rebel Stakes is Sandman for trainer Mark Casse, who comes off of an impressive and troubled second-place effort in the Southwest last out. Others near the top of the morning line include 9-2 Madaket Road for Bob Baffert and 5-1 Bullard for Michael McCarthy. With such a competitive field, watch the tote board action closely to find the value before placing your wager.

Q: Who is the best Rebel Stakes jockey?

A: Mike Smith leads all jockeys with five wins in the Rebel, most recently in 2019 with Omaha Beach. Smith does not have a call in the race this year. Two jockeys in the 2025 edition have won the race before: Cristian Torres (Sandman) won in 2024 with Timberlake and Rafael Bejarano (Speed King) won in 2012 with Secret Circle.

Q: Who won the 2024 Rebel Stakes?

A: Timberlake won the 2024 Rebel Stakes for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Cristian Torres. Cox can win again in 2025 with Admiral Dennis, ridden by Florent Geroux. Torres rides morning-line favorite Sandman for Mark Casse.

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