UFC 309 DFS Picks: Jones vs. Miocic

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic, taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY on Saturday.

UFC 309 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Jon Jones ($24)

Jon "Bones" Jones is the greatest all-time MMA fighter to many, including UFC president Dana White. White gave his favorite fighter a gift with this matchup.

The heavyweight champ ends the longest inactive streak in UFC championship history (623 days) to face 42-year-old Stipe Miocic, who retired following a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou in 2021.

This fight about "legacy" has a foregone conclusion if Jones' -650 moneyline is accurate. It's also likely to end early -- even though my model forecasts the main event to start Round 3 a whopping 62.3% of the time. It's doing what I have a hard time doing, which is expecting Miocic, who admitted he hasn't been training full time, to survive as well as he once could.

I'm skeptical of Jones' low knockdown rate (0.34%) producing a first-round KO, and Stipe has never been submitted. I'm bearish on Jones' MVP prospects relative to consensus (or a -145 line he ends the fight within three rounds), but he's still winning this bout.

Bo Nickal ($23)

No stranger to being the card's largest favorite, Bo Nickal will look to keep rolling toward middleweight's top 15 in this showdown with Paul Craig.

Nickal has mown through each of his first four UFC-affiliated foes inside 10 minutes, securing at least 75 FanDuel points from a win bonus in each. He's also piled up plenty of other points along the way with 7.46 takedowns and 7.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Craig's weak striking (44%) and takedown (37%) defense are a path to another MVP-caliber day for the wrestling standout. Like Jones, I'm not as confident as oddsmakers that he wins inside the distance (-550), but the fantasy points should be there.

Mauricio Ruffy ($22)

Brazil's Fighting Nerds gym got another electric knockout from Carlos Prates last week, and teammate Mauricio Ruffy has been on several shortlists since his first-round knockout of Jamie Mullarkey last year.

Ruffy's small sample showed excellent striking accuracy (59%) and defense (59%), and he's won all 10 pro fights by knockout. Peru's James Llontop has never been knocked out, so I hypothesize we might see a bit of grappling -- a signature trait of the Nerds -- from Ruffy to defeat him.

Either way, the Brazilian is in a clear setup spot with Llontop (0-2 UFC) and has one of the highest floors on the card. He's -950 to win and -180 to do so inside the distance.

Karine Silva ($20)

The most surprising return from my model this week was largely vouching for Karine Silva's lofty -300 moneyline. At -245 modeled, I'm not far off.

Women's flyweight isn't a division that typically sees finishes and large seperation, but "Killer" is an exception. She's finished four of her five UFC-affiliated opponents amidst an unbeaten start to her career, and it's come with a massive knockdown rate (1.11%) and rate of submission attempts (2.2 per 15 minutes).

Her "unstoppable force" will meet Vivi Araujo's "immovable object" on Saturday, though. At 37, Araujo hasn't been finished in 11 UFC fights.

However, factoring in age and attrition, I've got Silva as 58.5% likely to finish the Brazilian veteran -- which is a huge disparity from FanDuel's -215 odds this one sees the distance. I will roster the surging prospect in flex spots with credence to my model's aggressive forecast.

Oban Elliott ($18)

Oban Elliott caught my eye with a rousing post-fight interview on Dana White's Contender Series. He's delivered a 2-0 record in the cage to back up the talk.

"The Welsh Gangster" is a rising star at welterweight despite not even having won a fight by finish yet. I'm mostly glued to his excellent striking (61%) and takedown (72%) defense to this stage, resulting in a +1.58 striking success rate (SSR). These are traits of the stars of tomorrow that my model has found like Sean O'Malley or Tom Aspinall.

I'm not surprised to see him a large favorite over Bassil Hafez. Hafez's striking (40%) and takedown (50%) defense are on the other end of the spectrum. Hafez's "claim to fame" is going the distance with top-five-ranked Jack Della Maddalena, who still whooped him for a +51 striking differential.

I actually love Elliott in DFS this week on the basis of regression. His efficient offense will break opponents soon, and Hafez is piling up attrition despite surviving to the end of recent fights.

Value Plays to Target

Marcin Tybura ($14)

Tybura could be had at a pick 'em price on Sunday but has a -148 moneyline as we enter fight day.

It's really no surprise. The ranked staple has submitted or ground-and-pounded other one-dimensional heavyweight knockout aces like Walt Harris and Tai Tuivasa, and Jhonata Diniz hasn't really proven he'll be able to defend his grappling well enough to find another knockout.

Diniz was nearly finished in the first round by Austen Lane (1-3 UFC) before defending just three of five takedowns against Karl Williams. Williams' reduction in takedown attempts likely came from a longtime threat from Dana White to quit wrestling for entertainment purposes. Karl was trying to (and failed to) save his job.

Tybura's striking (+0.23 SSR) is a bit underrated, and his only losses since the start of 2020 have come against top-10 fighters. That's high praise for Diniz just 17 octagon minutes into his UFC career after showing his power wasn't quite as lethal stepping up in competition against Williams.

Jonathan Martinez ($12)

Y'all must have forgot about "Dragon".

Jonathan Martinez's last effort was about as tough of a "road game" as possible in UFC when facing Jose Aldo in Rio de Janeiro. Aldo's 60% striking D and excellent defense of leg kicks ended up a nightmare matchup for him.

Nonetheless, Martinez's +0.67 SSR has now passed through 11 multi-time UFC winners to 1 for his opponent, Marcus McGhee. "The Maniac" McGhee has aced three UFC starts to this point, but the level of competition is frighteningly poor. Seven absorbed leg kicks in McGhee's last fight don't bode well for this matchup, either.

There's some white noise in this betting line because Martinez left his longtime gym in Denver for his own new gym in Lubbock. That switch won't lead to quick enough regression to justify him as an underdog in this spot, though.

Eduarda Moura ($12)

Eduarda Moura would rather not be at 125 pounds, but a bad weight miss followed by extreme exhaustion in her last cut to 115 has forced her to this weight class for now.

It could be for the best in this matchup. Veronica Hardy is also another former strawweight, so I'm not expecting a huge size discrepancy here. With that the case, Hardy dropped the final round of her last fight against JJ Aldrich due to 2:23 in ground control time, and that's Moura's specialty.

Training with UFC heavyweight Jailton Almeida, "Ronda" has posted 5.15 takedowns and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes thus far, and Hardy's takedown D (60%) is very gettable.

If you're looking for a high-floor plug in cash games, I'd peg Moura's win odds the best of this value tier. A finish just isn't supremely likely.

Jim Miller ($11)

My model has Jim Miller a -125 favorite in this spot, and the betting line is peculiar to me here, too.

There's one path to this fight where Damon Jackson covers this number. Jackson gets his wrestling (2.34 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) going into the veteran's poor 47% takedown D. We've seen that undo "A-10" Miller against lightweight veterans like Vinc Pichel and Joe Solecki.

The problem? Jackson isn't a 155er. This is his first appearance at lightweight in UFC, ceding size to the 41-year-old underdog.

With that the case, Miller's recent power binge (three knockdowns in his last seven fights) could pass right through Jackson's 48% striking D. In my UFC 309 best bets, I love Miller's chances to finish this fight.

Michael Chandler ($10)

The opposite of Moura, a dart at Michael Chandler is all gas with no brakes. The floor doesn't exist.

"Iron" Mike is in the co-main event opposite Charles Oliveira, who is -145 to win inside the first three rounds. These two already fought in a wild 2021 title affair where Chandler nearly finished Oliveira in Round 1 only to succumb to strikes in Round 2.

In general, that fight has made Chandler a bit too distant to win what should be another barnburner. I've got him modeled as a +150 underdog, and Oliveira's poor striking (51%) and takedown (55%) defense create obvious paths for Chandler to land early offense again.

With -186 odds to not start Round 3, correctly forecasting Oliveira-Chandler in DFS will be paramount to winning tournaments.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.