UFC 309 Best Bets and Predictions: Jones vs. Miocic

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic, taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY on Saturday.

UFC 309 Betting Picks

Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson

Miller to Win (+148)
Miller to Win by KO/TKO/Submission (+260)

"Violence" could be Jim Miller's middle name.

18 of Miller's 26 UFC wins have come inside the distance, so if he gets it done this weekend, don't be surprised if it's early. "A-10" is 41 years old, but he's finished five of his last seven opponents -- all since his 38th birthday.

I see Damon Jackson, moving up from 145 pounds to 155 for this bout, as a candidate for a finish wherever the fight goes. Miller's 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes are notorious, but he's also got an improving 0.47% knockdown rate into Jackson's poor 48% striking defense. Up in weight, the consequences of those strikes absorbed will be greater.

Jackson's volume wrestling (6.88 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) at decent efficiency (34% landed) could cause issues for Miller's 47% takedown D in this one, but Jackson's own 37% takedown D is worse, too.

I just can't buy the notion that the smaller fighter controls someone who has made his living on the mat. Neither could my model.

I've got the local New Jersey product a -125 favorite (55.3% implied) to win on Saturday, and 35.0% of the time, it's a win inside the distance.

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

Weidman to Win (-104)

Speaking of local guys, it doesn't get more "local" than Long Island wrestler Chris Weidman, who is a longtime force in New York's MMA scene.

The former middleweight champion has publicly battled injuries in the back half of his career, but Weidman's win in March over Bruno Silva (4-6 UFC) implied he can still get the job done in the right competition bracket. He dropped Silva and posted a +39 striking differential despite only securing one takedown.

"The All-American" could struggle again to get takedowns on veteran Eryk Anders in this spot. Anders' 79% takedown D is no pushover.

The problem? The former Alabama Crimson Tide star just doesn't have much to justify a chalk price. Anders' last win over a UFC roster member was a split decision over Gerald Meerschaert (12-10 UFC) in 2019.

Weidman's -0.04 striking success rate (SSR) is superior to Anders' -0.76 mark before factoring in any potential grappling upside, which would have been a given in these two's respective primes.

It could be slimy, but my model has Weidman 53.5% likely to win a fight that goes the distance 71.0% of the time. He shouldn't be available as a 'dog.

Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva

Silva by Submission (+370)

"Tendency" is a word I use a lot on my weekly UFC preview show with sports betting influencer Matt Tanner. Karine Silva is telling us who she is.

At any and all opportunities thus far, Silva has tried to jump on a submission. She subbed her first four UFC-affiliated foes before being unable to find an opening on women's 125 veteran Ariane da Silva (6-7 UFC).

Overall, that's come out to a whopping 2.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. While she's working uphill to find a choke against a 37-year-old Viviane Araujo, who has never been submitted as a pro, this line is pretty wild. Araujo's competition also hasn't been the most potent on that front; her last six opponents have just four combined UFC wins via submission -- as many as "Killer" Karine.

I've modeled Silva as 47.9% likely to find a submission in this fight, which is roughly 66.3% of the time she ends up winning in the projection. I'd certainly have expected this prop closer to +200.

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Chandler to Win (+205)

UFC rematches rarely produce duplicate results. That feels like a lock for this Charles Oliveira-Michael Chandler rematch that nearly saw both win convincingly in a wild 2021 title fight.

Chandler controlled 2:29 of the first round and nearly sunk in a submission that Oliveira barely survived. When the two were stood up to begin Round 2, "Do Bronx" Oliveira dropped Chandler twice on the feet, winning the fight by TKO. Now a bit older, this one is a must-win for a potential shot at Islam Makhachev down the road.

The market seems to have appropriately figured out that an Oliveira (T)KO is not most likely to happen again. Oliveira attempts 2.8 submissions per 15 minutes, and Chandler was submitted in his last fight. I've modeled that at +180, but it's shorter on FanDuel.

Frankly, this isn't a fight where I'm showing a ton of betting value on props, but this angle is fine. The model expects Chandler to win 40.6% of the time, up from his 32.8% implied odds here. There's a strange amount of Chandler's win equity in a decision, per the model, which is keeping me away from Chandler To Win In Round 1, 2, or 3 (+340).

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

Jones to Win After Round 2 (+118)

I've been vocal about how this fight shouldn't exist, but it does. Jon Jones will either wrap up his career with this layup over 42-year-old Stipe Miocic or a light heavyweight with no grappling prowess, Alex Pereira, in his next fight.

"Bones" is one of UFC's biggest stars after a 28-fight pro career where his only loss came via a questionable disqualification. As much as Jones is picking his spots at this stage of his career, he earned it through a +2.07 SSR and 15 light heavyweight title defenses. At 35, he made his heavyweight debut and submitted former interim champion Ciryl Gane -- a poor grappler -- to claim this title that Dana White never made him relinquish.

Miocic's form is a huge unknown in his first appearance since March 2021. He's hinted he hasn't really been training on a full-time basis, which isn't ideal opposite most's G.O.A.T. Miocic suffered flash knockouts against Francis Ngannou and Daniel Cormier -- elite champions in their own right -- as his only two losses in his last nine fights. He also won twice against Cormier, a mutual rival of Jones, in the fourth round or later.

Jones' low knockdown rate (0.34%) has been dragging his recent fights into deeper waters. He went to the third round or later in nine straight fights before the easy submission of Gane. Miocic has never been subbed as a pro, inspiring some hope we see length in this one.

I've got Jones as 64.2% likely to win this fight, and I'm expecting it to start Round 3 a whopping 62.2% of the time. This is a solid price to back the favorite, who would likely need another submission to put away Miocic early. The punching power just isn't there -- or getting better at 37.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.