UFC 306 DFS Picks: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC, taking place at The Sphere in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday.

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Raul Rojas Jr. ($23) is the card's largest favorite (-1200), per the UFC 306 odds at FanDuel. That means he's a tough fade.

The 19-year-old phenom has posted at least 100 FanDuel points in all three of his wins, and the path for him exists through Aoriqileng's 58% takedown defense. Rosas attempts 11.55 takedowns per 15 minutes (TDp15) and lands a decent clip of them (39%). There's probably a reason "El Niño Problema" is leading off UFC's card celebrating Mexican Independence Day.

You could also consider a pair of prolific finishers at the multiplier. Diego Lopes ($19) has scored a first-round finish in every UFC win except his last, which was an odd fight that happened on two hours' notice against the ever-durable Dan Ige. Lopes' insane rate of knockdowns (2.07%) or sub attempts per 15 minutes (3.7) keep him live for a finish at any moment as Brian Ortega has lost three of five bouts and been dropped in another.

The other finisher is Ronaldo Rodriguez ($17), who showed off slick grappling in his UFC debut (1.8 submission attempts per 15) and now draws Ode Osbourne, who has been submitted in consecutive fights. Personally, there's a reason "Lazy Boy" is kicking off the pay-per-view main card.

Finally, as mentioned in my UFC 306 best bets, I'm going with both current champions in our five-round title fights by finish.

Sean O'Malley ($20) just styled his way to 158.0 FanDuel points in a decision win over Chito Vera, and the gap in striking ability against Merab Dvalishvili is even larger if he can stay upright. I've modeled O'Malley 39.9% likely to win inside the distance compared to just 6.3% for Merab, so he's a no-brainer for me in this format.

Alexa Grasso ($19) is the tougher sell of the two in a fight -192 to go the distance, but she dropped Valentina Shevchenko in the two's last bout in addition to two dangerous submission attempts against the former champion. Heck, the first of those was even converted. She mustered 73.4 FanDuel points in a draw last September, and I'm projecting the 31-year-old to seperate even further from the 36-year-old Shevchenko this time around.

Value Plays to Target

I was fairly stunned to see Manuel Torres ($14) in this section after four straight first-round finishes, but I'm also not projecting one for him against Ignacio Bahamondes, who has yet to be finished himself amidst a 5-2 UFC run. However, Bahamondes' takedown D failed him two fights ago facing Ludovit Klein, and Torres isn't short on attempts (4.94 per 15 minutes) or accuracy on them (62%).

Diehards have already noticed I've left the second-, third-, and fourth-largest favorites out of the stud section, so you can probably guess I'm looking at Edgar Chairez ($11), Esteban Ribovics ($10) and Ketlen Souza ($9) as value plays to help fill around title-fight participants.

Chairez, at the highest salary, is probably the diciest of the three to score with a -1.41 striking success rate (SSR) compared to opponent Josh Van's +2.21 mark. However, that's all baked into level of competition as Van styled on three fighters with a 1-10 combined UFC record. Van's last fight was a third-round loss via knockout with a -21 striking differential less than two months ago, so the larger, durable Chairez -- who has fought two undefeated foes in three bouts -- has tools to win inside the distance.

Ribovics' battle with Daniel Zellhuber is the highest profile battle of "prospects" on this card, and these strikers seem too similar to lay the chalk with the Mexican favorite. In fact, Argentina's Ribvoics (+2.71 SSR) has a much better track record than Zellhuber (+0.80) to this stage when "Golden Boy" lacks the wrestling danger (0.22 TDp15) that resulted in Ribovics' only UFC loss. An eight-inch reach disadvantage for the 'dog isn't ideal, but that's baked into this price.

As for Souza, laying -550 with Yazmin Jauregui is a quick way to need some Tums. Jauregui's +1.14 SSR isn't too impressive given her opponents' combined 11-12 record to this stage, and she's gone the full distance or lost three of the four bouts. Brazil's "Esquentadinha" has performed to expectation with a win over Marnic Mann (0-2 UFC) and a loss up in weight to ranked flyweight Karine Silva (4-0 UFC), producing a +2.75 SSR overall.

In a fight -250 to go the distance, her floor is actually extremely helpful as a punt-level option to fit in this card's top studs, and she can certainly win the fight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.