NFL Picks for This Week: 3 Predictions and Best Bets for Week 10

This Week’s NFL Best Bets in Summary

• Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (+100)
• Vikings-Packers Under 42.5 (-115)
• Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-105)

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The NFL season brings a full slate of opportunities for bettors each week. There are plenty of intriguing matchups and betting angles to consider across the schedule.

Here are our favorite NFL bets and predictions for this week. We’ll break down the matchups, key statistics and other factors behind each pick to help identify the best value on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and may change after this article is published. Check out all of our NFL picks.

NFL Picks and Predictions for This Week (Week 10)

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (+100)

Chiefs at Falcons — 1:00 p.m. ET

The Kansas City Chiefs have a clear advantage over the Atlanta Falcons in the efficiency department.

Kansas City has generated 0.067 EPA per play on offense, the fourth-best mark in the NFL, compared to Atlanta’s -0.036 EPA per play (22nd). Kansas City’s offense also has a 46.2% success rate — well ahead of Atlanta’s 43.1% clip.

The Falcons’ defense has been respectable, allowing -0.009 EPA per play, but the Chiefs’ ability to sustain drives gives them a strong path to controlling this matchup.

Given the disparity in overall offensive efficiency, I’ll back Patrick Mahomes and company to cover this 3.5-point number.

Vikings-Packers Under 42.5 (-115)

Vikings at Packers — 1:00 p.m. ET

There’s a compelling statistical case for a low-scoring NFC North battle.

The Minnesota Vikings have produced -0.099 EPA per play on offense, ranking 31st in the NFL, and their 39.8% offensive success rate is another sign of their trouble staying ahead of the chains. Kirk Cousins should provide a boost over the long haul, but it’s a big ask for Cousins to make a significant impact on a short week (for him) in a divisional road game against a hot defense.

Defensively, the Green Bay Packers are eighth in defensive EPA per play allowed (-0.030) and have forced multiple turnovers in six straight games.

Minnesota’s defense only adds to the under’s appeal. The Vikings rank first in defensive EPA per play allowed (-0.099) and have limited opponents to a 39.8% success rate.

Green Bay is solid offensively, but its 42.9% success rate and 0.040 EPA per play suggest this is not an unstoppable unit.

Even with Jordan Love capable of creating explosive passes — as we saw last week — the matchup points toward a grind-it-out defensive battle.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-105)

Seahawks at Raiders — 4:05 p.m. ET

Seattle Seahawks are a defense-first team, but that should be enough to make them attractive as road favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Seattle ranks second in defensive EPA per play allowed (-0.082), with opponents registering just a 39.9% success rate. The ‘Hawks are a really tough matchup for Fernando Mendoza in his first ever NFL start.

The Raiders have generated -0.046 EPA per play offensively, 27th in the league, with only a 41.4% success rate. They haven’t been able to run the ball, which should put a lot on Mendoza’s shoulders right away against one of the best defenses in the league.

Seattle’s own offense has been closer to average (-0.007 EPA per play), so laying nearly a touchdown carries some risk. However, the Raiders’ defense is also an appealing matchup: Las Vegas ranks 28th in defensive EPA per play allowed (+0.041) and permits a 45.4% success rate. That should help Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba move the ball while the Seahawks’ defense creates the separation needed to cover.

NFL Betting FAQ

What Does the Point Spread Mean in NFL Betting?

The point spread is designed to create a handicap between two teams. For example, if a team is listed at -3.5, it needs to win by at least four points for a spread bet on that team to cash. A team listed at +3.5 can either win outright or lose by three points or fewer and still cover the spread.

What Is an Over/Under in NFL Betting?

An over/under — also called a game total — is a wager on the combined number of points scored by both teams. If the total is set at 47.5, an over bet wins if the teams combine for 48 or more points, while an under bet wins if they combine for 47 or fewer.

What Is a Moneyline Bet in the NFL?

A moneyline wager is a bet on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the final margin. Favorites generally have shorter odds, while underdogs typically offer a larger potential return because they are considered less likely to win.

What Should You Consider Before Betting on an NFL Game?

Matchups, injuries, offensive and defensive efficiency, weather, home-field advantage, and recent performance can all be important factors. It's also worth monitoring line movement because NFL odds can change throughout the week as sportsbooks react to injuries, betting activity, and new information.

Where Can You Bet on NFL Games?

NFL bettors can find spreads, moneylines, totals, player props, and other markets at FanDuel Sportsbook via FanDuel’s NFL odds. Betting options and availability can vary by state, and odds may move leading up to the start of the game.

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Which bets stand out to you this week? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL odds to see the full menu of options. You can also check out our How to Bet on the NFL guide.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.