UFC 305 DFS Picks: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya, taking place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia on Saturday.

UFC 305 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

The top DFS plays on this card aren't anywhere near the main card, but you'll want to tune into these proverbial car crashes.

Tom Nolan ($24) is the default MVP as you'd expect from a -1250 favorite, but the tenor of his fight also should lead to FanDuel points when he's -170 to win in Round 1 and secure at least 100 of them. His opponent, Alex Reyes (0-2 UFC), hasn't seen a second round yet. Nolan lands 9.26 significant strikes per minute (SSLPM), so the Aussie might have the best ceiling we've seen in DFS all year.

I do think Jack Jenkins ($22) is a decent pivot in cash games if you're worried about Nolan's 41% striking defense (and loss via KO in January because of it). Jenkins is -770 to win and -340 to do so inside the distance, but it might take a bit. Herbert Burns has been finished in exactly the second round -- usually as his endurance expires -- in each of his last three fights. "Phar" has a striking accuracy (61%) and defense (59%) that are at least 18 percentage points higher than Burns' in both categories before you even get to his superior wrestling and cardio.

The bronze medal has to go to Brazilian striker Carlos Prates ($20) at the multiplier when he's -125 to win inside the distance. Though this is a step up in competition to Li Jingliang's 57% striking D, "The Leech" is now 36 and may not quite have the hallmark durability he's shown previously. Training with Brazil's Fighting Nerds camp, it's hard to believe Prates doesn't have submission upside just because he's chosen the slick, quick knockout in his first two starts.

I'm resigning Kenan Song ($18), who draws Ricky Glenn in Glenn's 170-pound debut, to flex spots. The case for him is clear; Glenn's -0.16 striking success rate (SSR) has won just two of its last seven fights with Ricky now at 35 years old, and Song's solid 1.29% knockdown rate (KD%) shows enough power to put the fleeting veteran away. There's upside, but it's hard to pull the trigger on a fellow aging guy that is 1-3 himself since the COVID break.

I'll also mix in undefeated debutant Stewart Nicoll ($18) in flex spots. Despite the unknown, Jesus Aguilar (2.12 FDPPM) is a low-output figher that's shown issues with his 40% takedown D -- and getting up once planted. Nicoll's regional footage shows enough wrestling to expect him to win in his home country.

Value Plays to Target

Heavily favoring Dricus Du Plessis ($16) in my UFC 305 best bets, he's easily the side I want in the main event that has elevated salaries on both sides for its scheduled five rounds. Du Plessis's 5.36 FanDuel points per minute excluding bonuses (FDPPM) dwarf Israel Adesanya's (2.41), and that activity is a huge edge when it comes to winning, too.

This week's salary coinflip is Junior Tafa and Valter Walker ($14) at heavyweight, and Walker's lack of knockout attrition makes Tafa a tough sell. Junior (or his brother) hasn't won a fight that's extended beyond two minutes with inefficient striking (-0.05 SSR) and poor grappling skills. Walker landed four of five takedowns in his debut; he should be able to secure them here.

There are several attractive underdogs this week, starting with Ricardo Ramos ($14). Ramos' last two losses by first-round submission shouldn't be an issue here when Josh Culibao has just one career sub attempt. I'd sooner trust Ramos' 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes (TDp15) with elite accuracy (60%) to get the better of Kuya's 67% takedown D.

"King" Casey O'Neill ($13) has been a DFS heartthrob with an excellent pace of 5.99 FDPPM that's now stuck across 70-plus octagon minutes. After consecutive losses inside the rankings, she's undervalued as a 'dog to put a pace on Luana Santos and win. The shiny, undefeated record of Santos has been a cakewalk to this point against opponents sporting a combined 6-10 UFC record. O'Neill (4-2) is a different beast.

I'm holding a Steve Erceg flyweight future, and Kai Kara-France ($13) has a chance to doom that ticket this weekend with a win, but I don't play favorites. Modeling Erceg at just 56.8% likely to win, KKF seems undervalued in this spot when he's always a tough out behind elite striking (65%) and takedown (88%) defense. Erceg isn't the best striker nor wrestler the Kiwi has fought thus far.

The model is even more convinced on Tai Tuivasa ($12) and Dan Hooker ($10). I've got both as extreme values relative to moneyline when modeling them at +110 and +135, respectively.

Tuivasa will always be a knockout threat behind a 2.01 KD%, yet his superior volume (3.96 SSLPM) could tell the story in a fight where he and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (1.88 KD%) are walking on eggshells around each other's power.

As for Hooker, his fight with Mateusz Gamrot is -215 to go the distance, and this should be a brutal matchup for the Polish favorite. Hooker's 80% takedown defense is tried and true through his 21-fight career, and it's not as if he doesn't have tools to finish the wrestler. Gamrot has been dropped in four of his last five fights, and Hooker has a pair of UFC wins by guillotine choke on his record that could be an effective counter to Gamrot's chain of takedown attempts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.