UFC 302: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier, taking place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday.

Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

A late-notice swap certainly saved me keystrokes in this flyweight opener.

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel was scheduled to make his debut against Andre Lima on this card, but the all-action Mongolian had to withdraw due to visa issues. Mitch Raposo steps in not too far away from his native Fall River in Massachusetts.

Lima certainly gets my vote for oddest UFC win in 2024. He was going back and forth with Igor Severino (0-1) before Severino bit -- yes, bit -- Lima's arm to get himself disqualified and cut from the promotion. You could make the argument Lima was winning the bout but also seemed to be getting fatigued; Severino took the question mark away entirely.

From an analytical perspective, Lima has starred to a +1.31 striking success rate (SSR) with elite striking accuracy (60%) and defense (60%). He's also been efficient getting takedowns (61% conversion) and has posted 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Aside from endurance, his takedown D (61%) is still a bit of a question mark with Raposo on deck.

Raposo's lone UFC-affiliated appearance was a Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) bid. That night, Jake Hadley (2-3 UFC) submitted him in the second round. He posted a -5 striking differential and landed two takedowns to Hadley's one.

The 25-year-old has gone on to win four fights by early finish since that one, but it was against regional competition that the unbeaten Lima has also schooled. Given Raposo's -0.61 SSR on the show, I'm expecting Lima to be the more potent striker and better jiu-jitsu practitioner so long as his takedown defense doesn't lose him too many minutes.

I will largely pass from a betting perspective on this short-notice bout.

Betting Verdict

• Lima's standing as a -250 favorite is a bit concerning -- especially after the weight miss on Friday. I liked what I saw, but his endurance issues were notable before Severino bailed him out entirely. Raposo could push a similar pace with his wrestling.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where I'm more open to Lima ($17) given his sparkling efficiency and submission upside. While keeping the unknown quantity out of the MVP multiplier spot, he should win the fight.

Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Level and experience is the sole defining factor between Ailin Perez and Joselyne Edwards. One of these ladies should win comfortably; the odds are just reflective of which one it is.

Perez is favored on the back of gaudy stats she's put forth in her two UFC wins, landing 12 combined takedowns on Ashlee Evans-Smith and Lucie Pudilova. The one small issue? Those two's combined UFC record is 6-12, and neither remain on the roster. It's worth remembering "Fiona" was submitted in her UFC debut by Stephanie Egger (3-4 UFC), too.

In theory, Perez could mow right through Edwards' 64% takedown D just as easily as those two, but she also slowed to lose the final round against Pudilova, and if Edwards is given any opportunity at distance, she should shine. Ailin has landed a combined total of 32 distance strikes in her entire career.

Edwards landed 46 on Pudilova alone, highlighting that mismatch. "La Pantera" has also shown tremendous growth and improvement with her wrestling, landing five takedowns in what could have been a win over Nora Cornolle if not for some unfriendly French judging. I truly don't think it's a given Perez has wrestling success just because Jessica-Rose Clark and Karol Rosa -- with 10 UFC wins between them -- did. This is an entirely different level of competition for Edwards.

At 5'5", Perez's style won't work against larger foes like Edwards -- especially with endurance concerns. Walking on eggshells with Edwards' takedown defense is understandable, but this betting line is outright assuming it fails.

Betting Verdict

• I bet Edwards' moneyline (+152) when it was at +170 but would take it anywhere north of +125. While she has failed to defend wrestling advances against better foes, she's stuffed 15 of the last 18 attempts she's faced against entry-level competition -- like Perez.
• These two have combined for zero knockdowns and two submission attempts. Both of those failed. I think we're in for a full fight here with -235 odds to go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• Edwards ($11) may not have extremely high fantasy upside defending wrestling attacks most of this fight, she's certainly a better choice than the favorite. Perez ($18) hasn't won inside the distance yet and now moves up in competition.

Bassil Hafez vs. Mickey Gall

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

This is an odd prelim that's quietly turned into a gambler's main event.

All of a sudden, Bassil Hafez has become a -400 favorite in his second UFC fight after a "competitive" split decision with Jack Della Maddalena, a top-five-ranked fighter in the division. The problem? It wasn't actually that competitive.

Hafez was able to use 6:48 in control time to even the gap between himself in JDM, but especially considering Jack had cut to 170 pounds for the second time in as many weeks, Hafez's performance was jaw-droppingly inefficient. Della Maddalena set a career-high for striking differential (+51) while landing 61% of his punches on Hafez and defending 75% of the incoming attempts. Jack also stuffed 17 of Hafez's 20 takedown attempts. I couldn't disagree more that Hafez had an "excellent" debut -- even considering the competition.

As a result, I think Mickey Gall -- and I never thought I'd say these words -- is undervalued to win this weekend. Gall's tumultuous UFC tenure has included a win over former WWE star CM Punk and a loss, via decision, to "Platinum" Mike Perry in a fight where Perry fired his entire corner to just have his girlfriend present. It's hard to take him seriously with those results in mind, but the New Jersey product still has a chance on home soil.

Gall's -1.31 SSR might be a relative strength here, and his jiu-jitsu (1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes) should keep him safe on the ground.

Hafez's regional split decision with Anthony Ivy (0-2 UFC) should simply invalidate him from having 80% implied chances to win any UFC fight. That's before looking at his awful per-minute performance against JDM. Win or lose, this line is too wide because of bias against Gall.

Betting Verdict

• I still haven't bet Gall's moneyline (+300) as the Hafez money just keeps coming. I will before the fights start. Gall's 36% takedown D is poor, but he'll win minutes on the feet while keeping himself safe on the ground.
• This fight is, notably, +120 to go the entire distance. That is due to Gall's willingness to play off his back, but I just don't see the dominant finish coming from the favorite.

DFS Verdict

• Hafez ($21) will likely be the second-most popular MVP candidate this weekend given the reputation of Gall ($8). By simply surviving at a punt-level salary, Mickey could actually be of great use in tournaments.

Jake Matthews vs. Phil Rowe

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Favored Jake Matthews can be a dicey proposition.

Matthews is 3-2 as an underdog, and I love his experience and surprising youth (29) in that spot, but he's just 9-5 as a favorite. My analytical model was a huge help here because Matthews' 60% striking defense always shines off the spreadsheet, propelling him to a +0.74 SSR. Plus, he's posted 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes with decent accuracy (40%).

Yet, in practice, "The Celtic Kid" always finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. He's been dropped three times in his last three fights, and despite a 12-5 record, he's just 1-3 against current UFC roster members. Li Jingliang (11-6 UFC) is the one win. There are enough openings for Phil Rowe to have a chance at his best win yet.

"The Fresh Prince" exits a long layoff after nearly toppling Neil Magny from the rankings. He had a +5 striking differential in that fight that went to a split decision. Rowe's striking accuracy (52%) and defense (54%) are both decent, and he's shown a ton of power behind a 1.08% knockdown rate. Yet, tying it altogether, Rowe's -0.38 SSR leaves plenty to be desired.

This fight has a meme written all over it. Rowe tends to need to rally late, but he stuffed all three takedown efforts from Magny. That could leave this mostly at distance where Phil's seven-inch reach edge and power should win it. I just can't trust Matthews at a -158 price when he's got basically no relevant sample against this tier of welterweight.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Matthews at 53.6% likely to win, which leaves value on Rowe's moneyline (+128). I'm in agreement with that assessment. A mathematical analysis of Matthews would be his best case, and even then, my model leans that Rowe's recent form, level of competition, and power are undervalued.
• I've got this fight a proverbial coinflip to go the full distance (50.5%) and won't be making a stand for or against the -124 odds on FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• Value is a bit tough to come by this weekend, so Rowe ($13) is the choice in a close fight by default. In two UFC losses, Rowe has only let up 70.2 FanDuel points on average. He's very responsible.

Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Two of lightweight's best grapplers will go at it in this one.

Grant Dawson will enter off a loss for the first time in his 8-1-1 UFC career after his first main event went as poorly as possible. Bobby Green knocked Dawson out cold in just 33 seconds when the latter was a -450 favorite. The Floridian's 45% striking D got the best of him in that one, which is why he's probably thrilled to face another impotent striking threat on Saturday in the form of Joe Solecki.

In terms of just wrestling and grappling, it'll be hard to not like Dawson's chances. He mowed through Olympic silver medalist Mark Madsen and Damir Ismagulov in consecutive fights before the Green setback and averages 3.68 takedowns and 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy against Ismagulov (66%) was better than top lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan's (33%).

Solecki will have a tall task ahead of him as a result, and his 50% takedown D might not be up for it. Against lesser competition, Solecki has been totally good working off his back at 1.5 sub attempts per 15 himself. He's got a pair of submission wins, too. That just might prove to be difficult against "KGD".

These two have a mutual opponent, Jared Gordon, that is a good lens into size, strength, and dominance here. Dawson submitted Gordon in the third round after seven takedowns and two submission attempts. Solecki lost via split decision.

If the underdog had more striking upside, I'd never lay -480 with Dawson's shaky chin, but Solecki has yet to land 30 distance strikes in a fight with zero career knockdowns.

Betting Verdict

• My model produced a convincing result here with Dawson posted as 65.6% likely to win. He's projected to win the distance striking differential and land 4.60 takedowns to Solecki's 2.39. It'll be tough to see a path to victory for the underdog, who is 2-2 in his last four fights against lesser competition.
• The drama in this fight is Solecki's submission defense, which is quality. I've got this fight 57.0% likely to find its full distance, which is similar to the -152 odds on FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• Dawson ($22) is good for a dominant performance that doesn't score well on FanDuel. He posted just 61 fantasy points in the Ismagulov fight despite controlling 82.7% of the fight. I think it's best to leave him behind at MVP.

Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

Freshly minted as one of the best FanDuel scorers in 2024, Jailton Almeida has an excellent chance to rebound from a bad mistake at UFC 299.

Almeida posted nine (!) takedowns in the first round against Curtis Blaydes and seemed prime to do the same in the second -- until Blaydes landed a vicious elbow on his 11th takedown attempt of the fight. That ended Almeida's night early. Blaydes will challenge for the heavyweight belt next, but that's not unrealistic for "Malhadinho" given how that fight was going.

The Brazilian has pummeled the heavyweight division for 6.88 takedowns with lethal 59% accuracy, and he's posted 2.20 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The Blaydes loss is his only setback. I have questions about his distance striking -- namely a 40% striking D -- and general size for this division as a former 205-pounder, but I'm not sure how much it'll factor into this fight with Alexandr Romanov.

"King Kong" entered UFC as a mystery man from Moldova with a spotless 11-0 record, and he flew through the entry level to earn a +1.86 SSR. He also has dominated to post 4.32 takedowns per 15 minutes with 54% accuracy.

However, Romanov is perhaps heavyweight's biggest "what if" in terms of conditioning. He's constantly tired in a handful of minutes and barely squeaks through the 265-pound limit. That's how he's 0-2 in the rankings, losing via first-round knockout to Alexander Volkov and by decision to Marcin Tybura. He's also defended just one of five career takedown attempts faced.

I can't envision what a Romanov win over Almeida even looks like. He's not a striker with no career knockdowns, and Almeida's takedown D (75%) has been largely exceptional. Plus, every Romanov attempt drains the battery when Jailton has some of the best conditioning at heavyweight, having gone 25 minutes with Derrick Lewis attempting 15 takedowns and 4 submission attempts.

Unless the Moldovan is too big and pounds him out in the first few minutes, Almeida should rally to submit or outpoint an exhausted Romanov.

Betting Verdict

• Almeida isn't without his own warts, but Romanov comes with so many baked in paths to failure without the power escape of a Curtis Blaydes, who has eight UFC knockouts. I've got Almeida 61.3% likely to win but am higher than that anecdotally.
• Interestingly, I've got this fight as 47.7% likely to go the distance. That's been the case in three of these fighters' combined last four bouts.
  • I don't think Almeida's decision prop (+400) should be priced so wide when Romanov has some jiu-jitsu skills (0.9 attempts per 15) to survive. I've got Almeida by points at +335.

DFS Verdict

• When he's -155 to win inside the distance, Almeida ($20) should carry popularity here. It's between him and Dawson for the third spot in my MVP hierarchy with our best two candidates to come.

Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Last Friday, Cesar Almeida was a +112 underdog. He's now a -118 favorite a week later. The question will become whether he's more like Alex "Poatan" Pereira or Robelis Despaigne as a one-dimensional striker cutting his teeth in UFC.

Almeida has a win (in three tries) against Pereira, which led to a quick launching pad from DWCS to this fight with four-time promotional winner Roman Kopylov in just nine months. The 34-year-old has used his striking skills acquired from the days with GLORY Kickboxing to amass a +3.19 SSR and cruise through the show and Dylan Budka (0-1 UFC) earlier this year.

The 34-year-old just still has minimal MMA experience. He has a 5-0 pro record with a 62% takedown D that's a bit queasy considering the level of competition. As a reminder from just three weeks ago, we saw a flood of money behind Despaigne, a Taekwondo Olympic medalist who ended up ceding the first three takedowns of Waldo Cortes-Acosta's career in an ugly loss.

Kopylov already has two takedowns in four attempts with UFC, so it can't be ignored that the five-time world champion in sambo could replicate that result. Still, this fight was made behind the idea of a high-level striking match. Not many have been able to match Kopylov's accuracy (54%) and distance (60%) in that realm, and the Russian has posted crazy highlights behind those numbers.

At distance, Kopylov's speed and accuracy won't be wildly outmatched. Budka's knockout loss came via exhaustion from wrestling advances, but I'd much more believe Kopylov would tie his advances to striking with more sophistication.

I considered Almeida as an underdog, but Kopylov's experience and strong peripherals are way, way too solid to have placed him as the 'dog to what is still an entirely unknown quantity.

Betting Verdict

• The line movement here made my decision for me. While Kopylov might lose at distance in this fight, he's never been finished there, and there is enough wrestling from the Russian to believe he'll be Almeida's stiffest test there, too. I bet his moneyline (-104) on Thursday.
• Almeida went the distance on DWCS, and Kopylov's lone two losses via early finish are submissions. The favorite is just not an overly powerful puncher when Budka's exhaustion got the best of him, and these are two defensive technicians. I lean this fight to go the distance (+124).

DFS Verdict

• There's a secure floor of points in this fight if it goes the distance as expected, but a few takedown points from Kopylov ($14) could be the difference in scoring upside here -- win or not.

Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Consider this a nomination for the most random pay-per-view fight of the year.

Randy Brown is a favorite of mine, but realistically, the unranked welterweight isn't quite this level of a draw. On his best nights, I think the 6'3" welterweight can compete with most. His +1.04 SSR has gotten the better of seven straight opponents at distance, and Brown has also produced three UFC wins via submission with those long limbs.

"Rudeboy" is coming off one of the most emphatic wins of his career: a first-round KO of Muslim Salikhov (6-4 UFC). He'll now draw one of the six fighters to lose to Salikhov, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

Zaleski dos Santos' stock rose dramatically after drawing with a divisional boogeyman, Rinat Fakhretdinov (3-0-1 UFC). EZDS had Fakhretdinov in a world of trouble late in the bout to nod the fight after being down two rounds. "Capoeira" also posted a +82 striking differential against Benoit Saint Denis (5-2 UFC) that certainly hasn't aged poorly even with that fight coming on short notice for Benoit.

The Brazilian, with just three fights since the start of 2021, just hasn't been around much. On paper, his striking accuracy (42%) and defense (57%) are right there with Brown's, but he doesn't grapple much. In fact, his 13% takedown accuracy is poorest in the division for a fighter who has completed 10-plus bouts.

Therefore, this could be a striking match where it's hard not to like Brown's five-inch reach edge. Going the distance in five straight bouts, I'm not sure EZDS (0.25% knockdown rate) has the top-shelf power to stop Brown from pointing his way to another marquee win.

Betting Verdict

• Though not quite finding value on the moneyline, the 57.8% chance of victory my model has returned is decently close to the 63.8% chance implied by oddsmakers. The age (four years) and reach advantages are hard to ignore when Brown just trounced a foe that EZDS couldn't defeat.
• I've got this fight 75.6% likely to go the distance when it's just -120 on FanDuel. Yet, oddsmakers seem a bit confused on the exact outcome here when Brown's decision prop (+180) is also the most likely outcome listed. I've also got value on that number, showing +150 odds.

DFS Verdict

• You could make a quality argument to fade this fight in DFS altogether with Brown going the distance in four of his last six fights in addition to Zaleski dos Santos' five straight. Nonetheless, "Rudeboy" ($16) could be a useful flex piece if the rest of the card gets wild.

Alex Morono vs. Niko Price

Welterweight (170 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

This rematch of a fun 170-pound bout from 2017 makes sense for both of these fighters on different trajectories now.

In that one, Alex Morono was winning the fight with a +26 striking differential until a wild exchange against the cage saw Niko Price put his lights out. Morono's performance leading up to the knockout -- and recent form -- has oddsmakers confident to post him as a -260 favorite.

I definitely get it. Morono is 6-2 in his last fights with the exceptions coming to the currently ranked Joaquin Buckley (9-4 UFC) and formerly ranked Santiago Ponzinibbio (11-6 UFC). If there are good losses to pick up, those are a pair of them. Morono has minimal power (0.44% knockdown rate) but excellent footwork and striking defense (58%) that's culminated in a +0.71 SSR. "The Great White" just has issues defending takedowns (55%) -- even ceding 3:20 in control time and losing a round to 39-year-old Court McGee in his latest bout.

On the flip side, Price was flattened in just 38 seconds by 42-year-old Robbie Lawler last July. That was the first knockdown for Lawler since January 2016. "The Hybrid" has now won just 3 of his last 10 fights, and at 34, he's dropped to a -0.14 SSR overall with poor striking defense (48%). All of this comes with a caveat of significantly tougher competition than Morono near the rankings.

Morono's lack of power seems like a good landing spot for Price stepping back in competition. While I certainly understand the appeal of the favorite's consistency, Price's athleticism can make up moments in a hurry, and he's shown enough wrestling to give my model extreme pause at this betting number.

Betting Verdict

• After deliberating on this fight more than any other, I've warmed to my model's result. It has Morono as 59.3% likely (-145 implied) to win, noting that his lack of pronounced finishing danger is a tough sell.
• The model has the fight as 65.3% likely to go the distance, so the most appealing bet might be Price's decision prop (+700). Once a brawler, Niko has quietly completed at least 80% of the fight's distance in five of six bouts since the COVID break.
  • Needing a win to avoid a roster cut, I could see an extremely conservative gameplan from Niko.

DFS Verdict

• On a card with so many favorites projected to finish their fight, Morono's +130 odds to win early just aren't super appealing -- especially when my model is even more pessimistic. I'll punt to Price ($13).

Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

I wavered on this fight quite a bit. Both fighters have a path to victory, but Michal Oleksiejczuk's seems anecdotally unlikely.

"Hussar" has relied on excellent knockout power (1.72% knockdown rate) to score six of his seven UFC wins by knockout. On paper, Oleksiejczuk's striking accuracy (50%) and defense (61%) are also elite. Yet, there's a reason he handily lost inside the rankings against Michel Pereira back in March.

Oleksiejczuk was hurt by a shot to the body and submitted, which is a common theme for him. He's been submitted in four of his five UFC defeats, showing no urgency to defend Pereira's choke in that instance. Kevin Holland, a lanky fighter with three UFC wins by submission, is no stranger to grabbing a neck.

"Big Mouth" has also not been knocked out in 36 pro fights with a lone TKO loss due to his corner calling the fight after a broken hand. On the feet, Holland's +1.05 SSR in a larger, 21-fight UFC sample speaks for itself. Inside the top five of welterweight's rankings, he just posted a +22 striking differential in a tight loss to Jack Della Maddalena.

Sub-55% takedown defense has largely been the undoing of both of these fighters, but Holland's seven-inch reach will be a massive advantage in a standup war when the grappling upside also goes his direction.

My model believes this number is a bit wide on Holland, but it's due to Oleksiejczuk's power metrics. If that isn't a deciding factor in Oleksiejczuk's direction, I don't know how he wins.

Betting Verdict

• This is a rare time that I'm splitting off from my model, which also sided Oleksiejczuk against Pereira. It loves his power, but that hasn't translated at these levels when Holland's submission danger and length are huge factors. I'm higher on "Big Mouth" than my model, which has him just 57.3% likely to win.
• In lieu of his moneyline, I've got this fight 61.0% likely to end early. I'm a fan of Holland's inside-the-distance prop (-120) given Oleksiejczuk's complete and total ineptitude defending submissions and waning durability.
  • Four of the five submission attempts against Oleksiejczuk have been converted to subs.

DFS Verdict

• I actually think Holland ($19) is one of the better MVP candidates on the card. His pace against JDM led to 127 significant strikes, and he's got early submission upside.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa

Middleweight (185 Pounds)
Five-Round Co-Main Event

It would be negative expected value for Sean Strickland to accept any three-round fight, so he'll co-headline Saturday in a five-rounder as requested.

Strickland has developed into a cult hero among MMA fans. His extreme political opinions and willingness to say anything in any setting resonates with many, but the former middleweight champion that dethroned Israel Adesanya can fight. His patented "Philly Shell" boxing style has produced a high pace (14.41 significant strikes attempted per minute) with elite defense (62%) that wilted Izzy over 25 minutes.

Though the current champ was able to use six takedowns to squeak past him, I certainly wouldn't call his 77% takedown D a weakness, either. If there's a downside to Strickland, it's minimal power (0.32% knockdown rate) that isn't overly surprising when he used to compete at 170. His own pride is also an issue, refusing to grapple because he says it's a dumb way to fight. In many ways, Paulo Costa is a unique challenge for many of these factors.

"The Eraser" has one of the most wonky UFC timelines I can recall. He flew to a title shot on the back of five wins (four by KO) but then was embarrassed for a second-round finish by the aforementioned Adesanya. Due to weight issues, contract disputes, and COVID cancellations, he's only fought twice since the start of 2022. He picked up an ugly decision win over the now-retired Luke Rockhold, and top-five contender Robert Whittaker turned him away in February with a +28 striking differential.

The elements that make this matchup fascinating is that Costa (0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes) doesn't really wrestle. Even if he does, he has zero career submission attempts. He's firmly been a striker, which seems like an issue holding a -0.18 SSR to Strickland's +1.58. Plus, endurance issues have marked Costa's entire career, and he's 0-1 in five-round fights (Marvin Vettori) with a -27 striking differential.

Costa might be seen as the "power" side of this matchup, but his 0.64% knockdown rate into Strickland's noted durability doesn't seem like an escape from what is the easiest fight to visualize on the card.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Strickland as 66.3% likely to win this fight (-200 implied), and I've got this fight 75.4% likely to go the distance. When I close my eyes and envision this bout, it is Strickland using his jab to point five rounds off Costa just as Whittaker did.
  • FanDuel cut us an awesome break with their Strickland to Win in Round 4, Round 5, or by Decision (+115) prop. It's an awesome combo of Strickland winning minutes whether he gets the early TKO or not.

DFS Verdict

• Many of this card's largest favorites are grapplers in three-round fights. Because of a general floor of significant strikes due to pace and lacking of punching power, Strickland ($17) is an easy choice in the multiplier with rare security in a UFC bout.

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier

Lightweight (155 Pounds)
Five-Round Championship Fight

This is about as close as Rocky IV's plot line gets to real combat sports. No one can seemingly stop Russian juggernaut Islam Makhachev in the 155-pound division, but Dustin Poirier will have to if he is to finally realize his dream in his third (and all but assuredly final) title shot.

Makhachev, though, might not even be as unstoppable as his mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov. We just don't really know. Makhachev doesn't have a title defense against a natural lightweight, snatching this belt off Charles Oliveira in 2022 but proceeding to battle Alexander Volkanovski -- the formerly dominant 145-pound champion -- in his next two fights. Another Volk loss by knockout earlier this year leaves some questions around Makhachev -- fair or not.

Analytically, there are no questions. He's blitzed through his lightweight competition for a +1.19 SSR with excellent striking accuracy (60%) and defense (61%). Yet, his signature attribute lies in 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy as the closest thing in UFC history to Khabib. Quietly, the man once dubbed a decision machine has finished six of his last seven wins, too. The question is how much it means with just one fight against a current top-10 contender, though.

Sample size works against Poirier's counting metrics, but I can confidently state he's got the striking edge here despite what a +1.09 SSR would state. Knockout wins over Conor McGregor, Benoit Saint Denis, and Justin Gaethje are standing results that the favorite can't offer. "The Diamond" has always been a well-rounded contender with four UFC submissions and 1.4 sub attempts per 15 minutes, as well.

Poirier's loss to Khabib -- a third-round submission in which he was ragdolled -- is likely why this betting line stands as it does. Poirier's 63% takedown D is certainly gettable for a grappler like Makhachev. However, Makhachev's vulnerable moments -- like getting dropped by Volk before a sham of a rematch on 11 days' notice -- leave enough room for doubt to make things interesting.

Above all, there is a level of urgency and finality in this bout that Poirier brings that Makhachev couldn't possibly summon. Between that and a modestly competitive skillset in all areas, it's pretty ridiculous he's a +420 underdog.

Betting Verdict

• I honestly checked for errors in my model after this result, but due to a striking edge, level of competition, and early-finishing upside in both of these two's results, I've got Makhachev just 56.4% implied to win this fight. His low volume -- unlike Khabib -- does make it harder to seperate from top-shelf contenders.
• Though that result is probably incorrect in theory, I do see value on Poirier's inside-the-distance prop (+500) given such a long number. I've got that at +240, which is realistically what I'd peg as his moneyline with an unlikely chance to win minutes.
  • The question becomes whether or not leaving the decision outcome (+2000) on the table is worth it compared to his moneyline. I'm not sure it is.

DFS Verdict

• Makhachev ($24) should be a popular MVP candidate with -260 odds to win inside the distance, but tournaments will flip on a dime if "The Diamond" indeed pulls the upset. I prefer other favorites on the card in the event Poirier ($15) can -- at the very least -- hang around.

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