UFC 292: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry within the sports world, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley, taking place at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on Saturday.

Karine Silva vs. Maryna Moroz

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

It'll take a new trick for Karine Silva to extend her winning streak to three.

Behind 4.5 submission attempts per 15 (best on this card), she's submitted two straight foes with minimal grappling experience. Those two foes are also 0-4 combined in UFC since the COVID break. Apparently, that's earned a huge step up in competition to Maryna Moroz here.

Moroz is a fringe-ranked flyweight with six UFC wins, and two were early submissions. She's never been stopped inside the full distance facing four foes who held top-10 rankings within a year of fighting Maryna. Her -0.17 striking success rate (SSR) might not be impressive, but she'll thoroughly be the better striker here.

Silva's -1.04 SSR includes a wretched 26% striking accuracy and 35% striking defense. Those are both the worst marks on the entire card. She's been able to wrestle two impotent opponents, but she's still gotten tagged in the process.

Moroz's 47% takedown D -- on paper -- is the drama in this fight, but she hasn't allowed a takedown since 2018. Most flyweights are unwilling to engage the Ukranian there, but Silva will have no choice.

"The Iron Lady" doesn't just have more high-level UFC experience; she has a win over Mayra Bueno Silva, who is next in line for the 135-pound belt. She just went to a tight decision with a former title challenger, Jennifer Maia, in her last bout.

If Silva can't find another quick submission, she'll be at a massive deficit in every facet -- most notably experience -- to a rock-solid, battle-tested fighter. This line is insanity.

Betting Verdict

• I've deployed a unit on Moroz's moneyline (+124). I could truly see her winning this fight by any method, so I'll avoid props with that number more than fair.
• Under 2.5 rounds (-102) might be the better play in the fight. Not only would that encapsulate Silva being out of her element, but that also hedges against another quick finish if "Killer" is the real deal.

DFS Verdict

• Even inviting the possibility this fight finishes inside-the-distance, I clearly am not a believer that Silva gets a third-straight stoppage in Round 1 -- and neither are oddsmakers.
• Moroz ($15) is a valuable salary-saver on a card without so few underdogs given at least a 35.0% implied chance to win.

Natalia Silva vs. Andrea Lee

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Though not quite as extreme as the first "Silva" overvaluation, Natalia Silva is making a leap so large that shouldn't surprise anyone if she comes up short.

Silva's game is well-rounded and pretty, which has endeared her to the hearts of the MMA faithful. Her strong takedown D (92%) allowed her to boat race the now-ranked Jasmine Jasudavicius in a striking match, and she was handed a laughable assignment with Tereza Bleda (1-1 UFC) and Victoria Leonardo (1-2 UFC) in her last two bouts -- and finished both inexperienced ladies.

The difference between the two Silvas? Beyond the takedown defense, her +3.57 SSR has also been top-notch through three UFC bouts. She's certainly an elite prospect, but facing Andrea Lee is an official exit of the "prospect" phase.

"KGB" Lee has long been one of my model's least lucky fighters. Her 5-5 record has come with three splits decisions and two other "unanimous" decisions in which she had a positive striking differential. In its eyes, she's earned a non-zero probability of 10-0 based on performance.

That's because she has a +1.54 SSR herself facing elite competition. She battered Cynthia Calvillo to brief retirement and a doctor's stoppage in 2021.

The most interesting dynamic in this fight is that where Lee has struggled (54% takedown defense) is also Silva's weakest area to this point. Silva's 33% takedown accuracy isn't ideal, landing just one of three on Tereza Bleda in a fight she was dominating.

If this is a striking match, Lee's 64% striking defense is ranked-opponent-tested, and she'll have four inches in reach. This is another price that I just don't get.

Betting Verdict

• Lee (+270) is my favorite distant underdog on the entire card. She's coming off a tight decision with Maycee Barber, who went on to destroy her next opponent. There isn't a substitute for that high-level experience.
• That said, Andrea doesn't have a lot of finishing potential. She only has a pair of early finishes in 10 fights. As a result, over 2.5 rounds (-190) is a solid play for that style of fight.

DFS Verdict

• With Lee never having been finished, Silva would need to post elite volume to pay off a $20 salary. The most FanDuel points that "KGB" has ever ceded was 92.6 to Joanne Wood in 2019.

Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Gerald Meerschaert has made a career out of pulling off the improbable. While I'm not counting him out, this profiles to be a difficult matchup.

With an 18-fight UFC career, GM3 actually has way more high-level experience here. Andre Petroski is just four fights into his career with a 4-0 record. However, the reason we do this with peripheral data is because Meerschaert's 4-2 record in his last six fights doesn't tell the story.

He came from behind with three chokes in this time period, getting outstruck and controlled in situations by both Kris Jotko and Dustin Stoltzfus -- now no longer with UFC. GM3 has a -0.36 SSR and pitiful 29% takedown defense, so working submissions off his back -- albeit to plenty of success -- is his one hope.

Petroski's grappling is the one area we can say with certainty he's got under control. He's posted 16 takedowns and 10 submission attempts in four bouts, legitimized by a stomping of Wellington Turman (3-5 UFC) in New York last fall. Though most of his striking work has come in close, a 55% striking accuracy and 52% striking defense are both ahead of Meerschaert to this point.

Quite simply, if Petroski's BJJ acumen helps him avoid the proverbial GM3 prayer of a submission, it's hard to see him losing this bout. At 35, Meerschaert was cracked by a relative UFC newcomer, Joe Pyfer, in his last bout and seems more fragile with each appearance. He also showed immense signs of fatigue against Jotko and Stoltzfus.

GM3's best work has come when he's had a pronounced jiu-jitsu advantage, and that's just not the case here.

Betting Verdict

• When both guys want to get to the ground, Petroski's takedown D (75%) is excellent, and Meerschaert's, as mentioned, is awful. That could be as simple as deciding this fight.
• Petroski by KO/TKO (+380) is one of my favorite darts on the card. In addition to ground-and-pound opportunities, he's also significantly more powerful if this spends any time at range.

DFS Verdict

• Petroski ($19) could go ignored with a grappling-heavy style and other top-shelf favorites on the card, but he's got quick win equity with a mammoth FanDuel score on the table. He leads the card in FanDuel points per minute excl. bonuses (5.69).

Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 Finale

The handicap on both finales for this season of The Ultimate Fighter is eerily similar. In both, the younger, favored wrestler will look to take down the wild, dangerous veteran that's shown more explosiveness on the show.

Brad Katona has already won the show in a previous season, and he was cut -- arguably prematurely -- after an 1-2 stead in UFC. Katona's reputation is as a wrestler, but he didn't land a takedown in his only UFC win and has a dreadful 22% takedown accuracy from his first stint. To his credit, he was facing Merab Dvalishvili and other solid wrestlers. He won a split decision over Timur Valiev (2-1 UFC) to make it here from the show.

Of course, he's likely improved as the sport has evolved in general, but the same can be said for Cody Gibson. Gibson drew Saturday's headliner, Aljamain Sterling, in his UFC debut and lost that bout -- and two others -- with just one win on his record. Gibson scored a dominant, first-round win by submission to make the finale.

This will be a very different matchup for Gibson, though -- and one I'm not expecting much from. He drew two strikers on the show but was just outwrestled by former UFC flyweight Ray Borg in Eagle FC, and that's Katona's bread and butter. Katona averages 5.68 takedowns attempted per 15, and this should be his best matchup for efficiency since joining the promotion.

I'll admit that Gibson's upside -- as the striker with finishes on the show -- is probably a better bet in an early-finish, fantasy sense, but Katona couldn't have drawn up a better stylistic matchup for him, and he has a significantly better resumé than Gibson. The Canadian has finished Bryce Mitchell (6-1 UFC) and beaten Valiev.

This is a wild mismatch on the ground, so I'll forgive Katona's lack of entertainment to back him here.

Betting Verdict

• In addition to the strong striking defenses, Katona is historically patient and durable. This fight is justly -234 to go the distance.
• Katona's moneyline (-176) is way too steep for the poor data in this fight, but I'm intrigued at a small dart at his inside-the-distance prop (+460) when he figures to spend so much time in control.

DFS Verdict

• Needing underdogs, I imagine the bulk of the field flocks toward Gibson here, but don't underestimate Katona's cardio and takedown volume. He could still pay off a reduced $17 salary in a win.

Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Lightweight (155 pounds)
The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 Finale

Austin Hubbard entered this season of The Ultimate Fighter among the favorites for the win, so it's no surprise to see him here. It's just quite the shocker this is who he's facing.

In hindsight, Hubbard's UFC stint may have been ended prematurely. He held a 3-3 record before a tight decision loss to Vinc Pichel in 2021, and the promotion waved goodbye. He showed decent acumen at a fair competition level, posting a +0.70 SSR and adding 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 61% efficiency.

I can't say the same about Kurt Holobaugh. In six UFC-affiliated appearances, Holobaugh went 0-5 with a no contest. The lone vestige of hope for him is that four of those six opponents found the UFC rankings at one point. Shane Burgos, Raoni Barcelos, and Thiago Moises are all accomplished UFC veterans that dispatched him.

At 36 years old, I can't definitely say Holobaugh is improving despite beating out Jason Knight (4-5 UFC) in a brawl for this spot, but it's not like Hubbard wildly impressed, either. He went to a split decision with Roosevelt Roberts (3-4 UFC) in a fight I'd have thought was tailor-made for him. Roberts' 58% takedown defense should have played right into his hands, but he admitted that Roberts being a good friend played a role in a lack of aggression.

The problem with Hubbard's reasoning is that he's never shown that aggression -- as evidenced by his low fantasy-point total. While Hubbard has UFC wins, he's also never beaten a UFC winner. His three wins have come over foes 0-2 against everyone else. In some ways, the resumés are pretty even here.

I paced Holobaugh north of 100 significant strikes in under two rounds on the show. That type of pace has never been seen from Hubbard, and "Thud" has a steep moneyline for someone that doesn't have a history of fight-winning offense.

Betting Verdict

• My favorite bet in this fight is over 2.5 rounds at -180. Hubbard's only win inside the distance was a corner's stoppage -- not his own. Holobaugh has also been extremely durable.
• Holobaugh's moneyline (+148) could be worth a dart when he's the one mounting offense to steal rounds with a much better pace.

DFS Verdict

• Because of the other wide moneylines on the card, Hubbard's $16 salary carries a ton of win equity. There are far worse propositions when we just saw, on a similar card last week with a ton of favorites, a more balanced perfect lineup.
• I wouldn't fault anyone for punting to Holobaugh ($14) if considering Hubbard's poor FanDuel scoring historically. It's just not a super appealing fight.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Anything can happen in the fight game, but this is the most stark mismatch on the card on paper.

Gregory Rodrigues was in the shadows as a title contender before his last bout. He was 4-1 with a questionable split decision as the only defeat, but a last-minute matchup with Brunno Ferreira resulted in a first-round knockout loss. The round was close before a hammer ended Rodrigues' night.

That's been the concern for "Robocop" throughout his run. His 51% striking defense isn't ideal, but he's otherwise been a monster when striking (6.09 significant strikes per minute with excellent 55% accuracy) or wrestling (2.20 takedowns per 15).

Rodrigues got Ferreira as an opponent on less than two weeks' notice, and surprises can happen without a full camp of tape study and training. In some ways, I feel as if UFC is apologizing with Denis Tiuliulin here. Tiuliulin has modest pop to create a similar result but otherwise seems outgunned.

Tiuliulin has a -0.72 SSR with an awful 41% striking defense, and his grappling has been the critical failure thus far. Both of his losses came via submission. Rodrigues is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt averaging 0.6 submission attempts per 15, so he's not out of the woods there this weekend.

Jamie Pickett is one of the most hesitant fighters in UFC history, but even he landed 35 first-round strikes on Tiuliulin before a groin shot that compromised Pickett's ability, and Tiuliulin found a TKO moments later. Other than that, the Russian hasn't had a positive second in UFC.

I see this as the promotion using Tiuliulin's last bout on his contract to boost a star that did them a solid, agreeing to a late-notice fight and paying for it earlier this year.

Betting Verdict

• Rodrigues' moneyline (-385) is wide, but I see it as a fairly safe parlay piece. With -650 odds this fight doesn't go the distance, his personal inside-the-distance prop is justifiably short, too.
• I've backed "Robocop" by first-round submission at +360. Tiuliulin hasn't shown any resistance once taken to the mat, and Rodrigues' excellent takedown efficiency (50%) could get it there early.

DFS Verdict

• Here is where I will back Rodrigues ($21) more prominently. In addition to all of his advantages, he's also just a rare great FanDuel scorer at middleweight, averaging 4.73 per minute excl. bonuses (fourth on this card). Personally, he's the top MVP candidate on the slate.

Brad Tavares vs. Chris Weidman

Middleweight (185 pounds)

This one had me tearing my hair out all week.

My model pegs Chris Weidman as a small favorite in this spot, but it's working off of metrics that still have the glowing impact of "The All-American" once holding a UFC title. At 39 years old, Weidman has lost six of his last eight fights and will return for the first time since one of the nastiest live leg breaks in UFC history.

Weidman has always needed his wrestling to get going. He averages 3.92 takedowns per 15 minutes historically with 47% accuracy, but of the three key skills in MMA, wrestling is the most physical and hardest to maintain exiting your prime. As a result, Weidman has failed to secure multiple takedowns in four of his last seven -- and lost all four by KO.

As a result, Brad Tavares' job seems simple. He's just got to defend takedowns, and he's done that with great prowess recently. He's defended 28 of his last 31 takedown attempts faced, including all seven from current title challenger Dricus du Plessis in 2022. However, he's declining, too.

Tavares was stunned via knockout by Bruno Silva earlier this year, but "Blindado" has that type of power and striking prowess. Weidman's last win via finish was a submission in 2017, and his lone knockout from a standing position was Anderson Silva's gruesome, infamous leg injury in 2013.

The unknown in this fight that makes it somewhat compelling is that, in their primes, Weidman was significantly better and reached a championship level that Tavares did not. After all, Weidman has faced a ranked opponent in 14 of his last 15 fights.

Interestingly, Chris has a four-inch reach advantage in a fight that could be kind of dull with few scoring moments. I -- and my model -- wouldn't rule him out taking a sloppy striking match here. The value is certainly in his corner when Tavares just doesn't mount enough high-level offense to cover the proverbial spread.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Weidman at 54.5% to win this fight, but I'll be the first to admit that the baseline stats for it include his championship run. While still wrestling effectively in spots, he's -- obviously -- not the same level of athlete at 39.
• This fight to end by KO/TKO (-105) is intriguing. It's my favorite bet on the fight when it encapsulates Weidman's potentially wavering chin and potential ground-and-pound from him when Tavares has never been professionally submitted.

DFS Verdict

• Weidman's chin is a concern, but Tavares has always been a terrible favorite in DFS due to his lack of volume. With over 2.5 rounds at -108, I'm going exclusively 'dog or pass with "The All-American" at $10.

Marlon "Chito" Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Can Marlon Vera regain his timing for a three-round fight in time for this one?

Vera is one of the most unique athletes in the sport. He has dropped the first round in each of his last four wins but -- obviously -- came from behind. Vera's patient nature is largely responsible for a -0.93 SSR more than his ability, landing 49% of his significant strikes with a gigantic 1.09% knockdown rate.

It'll certainly be interesting when Pedro Munhoz is not the easiest guy to hit but invites damage from his pace. Munhoz's 57% striking defense is elite despite a 2-4 skid (with a no contest) in his past seven fights. Munhoz also pairs that with an 81% takedown defense, so it quickly becomes less and less of a mystery how he's found the scorecards in each of his last six completed bouts.

The problem for Munhoz is that he's just not overly dangerous. Behind a five-inch edge in reach, Vera has the entirety of the knockout upside in this fight where submissions are equal parts unlikely. Munhoz also absorbs 5.90 significant strikes per minute (second-most on this card), which is a product of his own pace.

He's been able to get away with that fighting Chris Gutierrez, Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar. None hit supremely hard well into their 30s. In his statistical prime, Vera's punching power is massive -- hence how he knocked out the two of that trio that he's faced.

My model does find slight value in Munhoz to win this fight -- but that's if it goes to a decision. It simultaneously loves under 2.5 rounds here, placing it at -140 compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's number (-280).

If there's an early finish, it's almost exclusively Chito's. My model -- even liking Munhoz -- gives him a paltry 10.71% chance to win this fight early.

Betting Verdict

• My bets for this fight include Vera's inside-the-distance prop (+340), and I've sprinkled his Round 2 prop (+1100) and Round 3 prop (+1600)
• Those wagers get even better if Vera is off to a slow start and rallying late. That situation would be more of a concern for Chito's moneyline (-210).

DFS Verdict

• Vera's $17 salary is awfully low when I'm projecting him to finish this fight 30.97% of the time. Beyond a projection, he's just done it with regularity. Chito has early stoppages in 8 of his last 10 wins.

Mario Bautista vs. Da'Mon Blackshear

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

How about Da'Mon Blackshear striking while the iron is hot?

Blackshear would vault into "star" status with a second win in seven days, and this one would come over Mario Bautista, who has won six of his eight UFC bouts and figures to be sniffing the rankings with a win in this spot himself.

"Da'Monster" was able to submit Jose Johnson, a poor grappler, on four days' notice last week, but he's now just 2-2 in UFC and hasn't beaten a single UFC winner. When looking at his analytical profile with that understood, he's really struggled mounting offense with just a 44% striking accuracy and 29% takedown accuracy. He'd also be the first to submit Bautista.

However, athletic guys like Blackshear can make it happen quickly. Bautista knows from when Trevin Jones (1-4 UFC) came from behind to knock him out in a result that now seems incredibly fluky in hindsight.

Still, Bautista, against tougher competition, has a +1.60 SSR to Blackshear's +0.00 SSR. He's also landed 2.91 takedowns per 15 with remarkable 68% accuracy, and he could reopen Blackshear's 54% takedown defense with that efficient wrestling and grappling.

This fight is pretty simple to handicap. Blackshear hasn't shown knockout power with a knockdown in UFC, and he's got worse peripherals across the board while fighting lower-level competition. This will also be his second weight cut in seven days -- a phenomenon which we saw totally drain Jack Della Maddalena last month.

Kudos to him for taking such a difficult fight to keep Bautista on the card, but I'm not sure he's actually got a shot to win it.

Betting Verdict

• Bautista's level of competition is better -- but not so much better to justify this price. I'll pass on a side with no props available yet on Friday at FanDuel Sportsbook.
• That same line of thinking would lean toward over 2.5 rounds, but the second weight cut in as many weeks for Blackshear is a red flag of durability to say the least. This line isn't available, either.

DFS Verdict

• Mario ($18) is third on the card in FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses) on a stacked card of fantasy scorers, so if anyone could pay off a potential decision, it would be him.
• I still prefer others like Petroski and Rodrigues at MVP.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Neil Magny

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Ian Garry is a remake of a movie I've seen before. If the ending is the exact same as the original, it'll spoil one of my largest upset predictions of the year here.

From Ireland, Garry has used Conor McGregor's same formula of striking, knockout power, and trash talk to fly up the rankings at 170 pounds. He fought -- and struggled with -- dreadful competition until a May bout with Daniel Rodriguez (8-3 UFC), and stunning Rodriguez with a first-round headkick was a first step toward superstardom.

He was initially scheduled for slugger Geoff Neal here, but wily veteran Neil Magny will step in on short notice and present a different type of test. Neal was going to test Garry's chin and lower-than-ideal striking defense (53%), but Magny is much more of a grappler, averaging 2.30 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid 41% accuracy.

We haven't seen Garry tested at a high level in either area, frankly, but this is the one that I believe should give bettors more pause. Garry's takedown D is just 63%, and it's not his natural skill. He hasn't authored a takedown or submission attempt yet. Magny also presents other odd challenges, holding a six-inch edge in reach with significantly more ranked experience.

To me, Garry's knockout prop sitting at +115 tells quite the tale. Magny was last KO'd in 2018, having fought Neal, Robbie Lawler, Gilbert Burns, and Shavkat Rakhmonov in that span. If Garry doesn't blast out the 36-year-old by sheer power and durability, his win chances will shrink considerably.

This line has kept ballooning all week, but I just don't see how the prospect covers the proverbial spread here. It would be from a durability lapse Magny hasn't shown or grappling competence that Garry is believed to have but hasn't shown.

This feels a lot like, as an undefeated Irishman on the main card, the "McGregor vibes" are carrying Garry's betting price well beyond where it actually merits on ability and historic tendencies.

Betting Verdict

• Magny's moneyline (+370) will be one of the most distant I target all year. My model has him winning 58.1% of the time. While I'll acknowledge this is likely the best version of Garry and the worst version of Magny to date, the margin for error against Neil's 22.2% implied odds to win isn't exactly small.
• Importantly, I feel like over 2.5 rounds (+100) here is a result of overcompensation toward Garry's inside-the-distance numbers. For that reason, it could be unique ways to target this while knowing the shenanigans that can happen with UFC stars in decisions.

DFS Verdict

• Garry ($22) should be the most popular fighter on the card in general -- and at MVP. If I'm correct about his finishing potential, he could leave a ton of lineups in the dust.
• Magny's salary is so low ($8) that the risk is minimal in an individual lineup to save salary. I'm not expecting a finish from him, but a win bonus would be valuable from him as a punt.

Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

Last month, I said that I couldn't get my arms around Brandon Moreno despite continuing to succeed against his peripherals at a championship level. He ended up losing. Entering this one, Zhang Weili has done the same.

Weili lost both bouts with Rose Namajunas in 2021, but a one-stop beatdown of the retiring Joanna Jedrzejczyk put her back into a title fight. It was supposed to be against Rose Namajunas again, but Namajunas froze against Carla Esparza, landing just 37 significant strikes in one of the sport's all-time cases of the yips.

Zhang then beat Esparza pillar to post, landing 38 significant strikes before a second-round submission. At 5'1" with a 47% takedown defense, Esparza stood no shot against the larger Zhang in hindsight. She's now reclaimed this title, but a tricky matchup with Amanda Lemos has a shot to bring out some of the champion's warts we saw when facing Namajunas.

First and foremost, Lemos' 81% takedown defense is phenomenal, so the bullying based on size isn't likely to continue here. Secondarily, Lemos is coming off a knockout of one of strawweight's best strikers, Marina Rodriguez. Lemos showed significant improvement to land 54% of her strikes and defended 64% against Rodriguez (+1.64 SSR).

Weili's +1.74 SSR is better than Marina's, but her striking accuracy (47%) and defense (53%) are both slightly worse, and she'll cede two inches in reach to Lemos.

With upsets in all four women's divisions at a higher rate than any single men's division, this line seems violently wide to yours truly. Outside of a knockout within seconds in Hong Kong of Jessica Andrade, Zhang's path to the title included two bouts with Jedrzejczyk, who had an infamous 0% knockdown rate and no power, and Esparza, who lacks elite size for the division as a wrestler that earned several split decisions to make it back toward the title.

In short, there's nothing truly definitive about this fight when both fighters have proven to strike and grapple well enough against other flawed top contenders in the division. This line is too wide.

Betting Verdict

• My model gives Lemos a 39.22% chance to win this bout, yet these odds imply just a 28.6% chance. Personally, I also believe it to be a bit lower on Lemos with her recent form significantly improved versus her lifetime statistics.
• The model also has this one at 42.29% to see the full distance with +225 odds (30.8%) from FanDuel Sportsbook. It's a bit uneasy when Zhang and Lemos have both found early finishes recently, but this division has the lowest rate of finishes overall.

DFS Verdict

• Unlike Garry, Zhang ($23) is -140 to find an early finish. Yes, this helper is recommending an extremely uncomfortable strategy of passing on the top-two favorites, but if there was one I *could* see fantasy-relevant, it is Weili. Lemos has been susceptible to prior knockouts and submissions.
• At the same time, they both have, and Lemos is just $14. She could be a valuable budget option as an underdog. I truly see this as closer to a coin flip of which fighter prevails.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

I've pulled my hair out regarding this fight all week, but I came to an organic conclusion on Wednesday. This fight doesn't have a public consensus as the line would indicate.

Aljamain Sterling will wave goodbye to this division after Saturday with a win or a loss, and you can't really knock his resumé at this point. Sterling was fortunate that, in his first title bout, Petr Yan was disqualified in a fight he was clearly winning, but to Aljo's credit, he decisively won the rematch to keep the belt. Since, he's vanquished former champions TJ Dillashaw (who was injured) and Henry Cejudo, and it's worth remembering he beat Cory Sandhagen and Pedro Munhoz to get here.

Sterling does everything well on paper. He's got a +2.41 SSR -- tested at a championship level -- with a plus striking accuracy (52%) and defense (55%). While not the world's most efficient grappler as a tall guy (22% takedown accuracy), he's an elite jiu-jitsu practitioner that averages 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He controlled Yan and Dillashaw for over 30% of each completed fight.

The question here is if Sean O'Malley can lean into his strengths and beat him. O'Malley's UFC career began with a show-stopping moment on Dana White's Contender Series, and White has repaid the favor ever since. He's still only fought two ranked fighters. He earned a no-contest for poking the aforementioned Pedro Munhoz in the eye, and when facing Yan himself, he got a break with an extremely questionable split decision.

I've always been a believer in O'Malley because of his peripherals. He's fighting terrible dudes, but a +3.89 SSR with striking accuracy and defense above 60% is what it should look like. The most challenged peripheral stat this weekend will be his 60% takedown D, which isn't great, because he's even admitted that he's in trouble if Sterling gets hold of him.

Therefore, as a believer this whole time, this is where we have to be honest about the fluff. O'Malley's level of competition has been poor, he hasn't aced the step upward, and is -- by his own admission -- less well-rounded than Aljo.

Sure, Sean could absolutely knock out Sterling in a moment for the ages -- just as Conor McGregor did to Jose Aldo. However, a majority of this time, the disciplined, technical Sterling waits patiently for an opening to get this to his world.

This just doesn't seem like a spot to overthink what Aljo -- arguably the greatest bantamweight ever in his prime -- has put forth.

Betting Verdict

• This fight shows the limitations of my model when the competition levels aren't even close to equal. Even when slanting that factor 100% in Sterling's direction, it favors O'Malley to win 52.68% of the time.
• I'm more intrigued by its projection for the fight to go the full distance 48.0% of the time versus 37.9% implied odds at +164. Sterling's submission attempt volume isn't large; I could see him backpacking O'Malley to a decision at +220 odds.

DFS Verdict

• Personally, I see Sterling ($21) as a favorite with equal parts upside and risk.
  • If he's clearly better than O'Malley, he could rival the 158.2 FanDuel points he put on a wounded -- but skilled -- Dillashaw.
  • If Sterling's patience prevails, there could be a lot of empty control time that results in a dud for both fighters.
• Even in a five-rounder, O'Malley's $16 salary is a bit high when he appears to need a knockout to score points against a guy with elite striking defense.

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