3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Rockets vs. Warriors in Game 4 of the Playoffs

The NBA playoffs are here, and even within a single game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Houston Rockets face the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the Western Conference Playoffs?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Rockets at Warriors Game 4 Betting Picks

Warriors Under 103.5 Points (-112)

While the Warriors lead 2-1 and are favored by four points for Game 4, they've averaging only 97.7 points per game (PPG) in this series. The Rockets' strong perimeter defense has played a part, for Golden State has logged 14.3 three-point makes per game while shooting 35.8%.

This isn't that far behind the Warriors' regular-season averages -- which included shooting 36.3% (16th-highest) while draining 15.4 made threes per contest (4th-most). Houston gave up the second-fewest three-point attempts and makes per contest while surrendering the third-lowest shot distribution from three (per Dunks & Threes).

The pace is the biggest factor for under the Warriors' team total. During the regular season, both teams were in the top half for the slowest pace and ranked in the top 11 for the fewest field goal makes and attempts allowed per game. Plus, each defense finished in the top 7 of defensive rating while ranking in the top 12 of PPG and effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed. That's been the identity of this series with the under hitting in all three games.

Golden State has shot only 43.9% from the field while Houston is at 41.3%. Game 4 features the lowest total yet at 203, and the Rockets' total is at only 99.5. The only under generating confidence is the Warriors' 103.5 team total.

Jimmy Butler Over 19.5 Points (-110)

Following a 25-point performance in Game 1, Jimmy Butler played only eight minutes in Game 2 due to a pelvis injury and missed Game 3 because of the same injury. The injury report currently has Butler listed as questionable, but Brett Siegel reported a return is expected tonight.

As seen in Game 1, this is an ideal matchup for Butler. While Houston's perimeter defense boasts impressive numbers, the same cannot be said around the rim. During the regular season, the Rockets gave up the 16th-most points in the paint per game and the 13th-highest shot distribution around the rim. Butler shoots 65.3% of his shots within 10 feet of the rim and 14 of his 21 attempts (66.7%) in this series have come within the same range.

Over his final eight regular-season games in April, Butler totaled 20.3 PPG. It was the perfect tune up as Butler has averaged 31.5 PPG over his two full postseason appearances. Exposure to Jimmy Buckets in the playoffs is always a good idea, and his 19.5-point prop along paired with a favorable matchup feels too good to pass on.

Jalen Green to Make 3+ Threes (+112)

Through three games, the Rockets have recorded a dreadful 95.7 PPG. Frankly, it hasn't been a huge surprise as Houston had the seventh-lowest eFG% and eighth-lowest FG% during the regular season.

Despite touting the 10th-lowest three-point percentage in the regular season, shooting from beyond the arc felt like a big key for the Rockets coming into this series. Golden State gave up the 12th-lowest three-point shot distribution compared to the lowest around the rim during the regular season. It even allowed the 13th-highest three-point percentage.

Houston has a few high volume three-point shooters in Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet. After totaling 8.1 three-point attempts per game in the regular season, Green's total is up 9.0 in this series. VanVleet has also experienced an increase in volume, going from 7.7 to 9.7.

Per usual, Green has provided wild inconsistency as he logged 7 points in Game 1 and 9 points in Game 3, but he also erupted for 38 points in Game 2. Draining eight three-pointers was the driver behind that Game 2 outburst.

On the season, Green has recorded 2.9 made threes per game. While inefficiencies are still a worry, I like 3+ made three-pointers with a jump in volume this series. Our NBA DFS projections have Green making 2.8 triples, which has a 53.1% implied probability (or -113 odds) for at least three made three-pointers. That's solid value compared to the current +112 line holding a 47.2% implied probability.

You can also check out our latest 2025 NBA Playoffs printable bracket, which includes the seeding and matchups for each conference.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.