Tyler Lockett Is A Steal In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts

Now an established veteran in the league, Tyler Lockett didn't miss a beat despite playing with a new quarterback in 2022. He had his fourth consecutive season with over 1000 yards receiving and fifth-straight with at least eight touchdowns.

He's now headed into his age-31 season and will have another receiver to compete for targets with this season.

How should we value Lockett in fantasy football drafts in 2023?

Tyler Lockett Fantasy Football Projections

All projections via numberFire.com.

2023 Fantasy Points: 195.2 (195.3 in 2022)
2023 Positional Ranking: WR22
2023 Projected Stats:

• 136.7 targets
• 92.5 receptions
• 1058.0 receiving yards
• 7.4 receiving touchdowns

Tyler Lockett Fantasy Football Outlook

Consistent Production

Lockett has impressed since becoming a prominent receiver for the Seattle Seahawks. He was initially a special teams player and a complimentary player on offense.

From 2018-2021, his connection with Russell Wilson saw him catch 36 touchdowns. It was a legitimate concern when the Seahawks switched quarterbacks to Geno Smith.

Lockett had more catches and more touchdowns playing with Smith in 2022 than he did in 2021. He also saw a higher average depth of target (aDOT) in 2022 than in 2020, which was his best fantasy season to date.

It seems that Lockett often gets overshadowed on his own team by D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf has been getting drafted significantly ahead of Lockett for the last two seasons, but the two have produced similar fantasy results. That includes Lockett averaging more half-PPR points per game in 2022.

Lockett has finished as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver for each of the past three seasons. He is getting older now, so expecting some decline is reasonable. However, it shouldn't be forgotten how good he has been in the past few seasons.

Intriguing Situation Heading into 2023

The Seahawks head into 2023 with a similar situation as they had in 2022. Geno Smith will still be the QB, and Lockett will still have to compete with Metcalf for targets.

The interesting wrinkle now is that the team used their first round pick on a wide receiver. The highly-touted Jaxson Smith-Njigba comes in from Ohio State for a team that has not had a reliable third option in the passing game since the team drafted Metcalf in 2019.

Smith-Njigba is expected to play in the slot, which would push Lockett to play on the outside nearly the full time. Lockett played in the slot 56% of the time last season. Hopefully, playing outside will help him see closer to his 2021 aDOT of 14.5.

The natural question after the team added JSN is if they can support three wide receivers for fantasy purposes. There is evidence to suggest that this will be possible in 2023.

There is definitely room for a third target in the Seattle passing game. Last season, no one besides the top two receivers saw more than an 11.3% target share. Marquise Goodwin was the third-leading target getter among wide receivers, and he is no longer on the team.

Seattle has been thought of as a run-first team basically throughout the Pete Carroll era. That changed a bit in 2022. They had a pass rate over expectation (PROE) of +1.5%, which was actually the eighth-highest in the NFL.

This was a surprise -- especially after the quarterback change. The thing that finally made the Seahawks pass more was going from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith. That actually was justified, with Smith being second in the league in completion percentage over expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

If Smith can maintain this level of play, he should be able to get the ball to all three receivers. Seattle doesn't have a running back or tight end that we'd expect to get a lot of targets, so we shouldn't be too concerned about Lockett heading into this season despite the increased competition.

Where Should We Draft Tyler Lockett in 2023?

Currently, Lockett is being drafted as the WR26 as the 66th player overall in half-PPR drafts.

The projections from numberFire like him a bit better than that at the WR22. They like him more than receivers like D.J. Moore, DeAndre Hopkins and Terry McLaurin.

In general, it's good to bet on receivers with stable situations. All of those players are playing with a new quarterback this season and offenses with some question marks. Lockett already has a rapport with his QB, and there isn't much of a question about his role.

Lockett is being discounted partially because of his age but has yet to show any sign of decline. Again heading into this season, he feels overshadowed by Metcalf -- and now also JSN -- along with the battle for the running back workload.

Adding Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet to the offense can be a good thing for Lockett. This offense was only 19th in total efficiency, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics from last season. If it can become one of the better offenses in the league, a rising tide could lift all boats.

We know that Lockett has finished in the top 15 at the WR position three years in a row. He is capable of doing that this season, as well. He is definitely a receiver to target in the fifth or sixth round of 12-team drafts if you are in that area of the draft and in need of a wideout.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.