3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 4/28/24

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Yankees ML (-126)

The New York Yankees have been a force offensively, and they should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup against the Baltimore Orioles' Tomoyuki Sugano.

Sugano enters Monday with a 3.54 ERA over five starts, but negative regression could come knocking as soon as tonight. That's because Sugano has an egregious 6.11 xERA while owning an 8.0% strikeout rate (1st percentile) and 15.4% whiff rate (2nd percentile). He's allowing 1.93 HR/9, and the only thing that's really saved him so far is a lucky .228 BABIP.

The Yankees are poised to punish the 35-year-old righty for these poor marks as their active roster ranks third in wRC+ (128) and ISO (.194) versus right-handed pitching.

While New York starter Will Warren has been far from perfect, a 3.69 xFIP and 24.1% K rate are positives we can latch on to. Warren has struggled against lefties going back to last season and is likely to face a lefty-heavy Baltimore lineup, but he's upped his ground-ball rate to 52.6% in the split so far this year, which could help limit the damage.

The Yankees should also have the edge in the late stages of this game as their active bullpen ranks 8th in xFIP (3.42) while the Orioles' relievers are 26th (4.45).

Baltimore comes in having lost six of their last seven, and they could have a tough time finding their footing against New York tonight.

Athletics at Texas Rangers

Athletics -0.5 in First 5 Innings (+112)

The Athletics haven't been a doormat like they were in 2024, and we should like their chance of having a lead through five innings against the Texas Rangers tonight.

The A's will have southpaw JP Sears toeing the rubber. While he hasn't put up dominant marks, he's logged a solid 3.86 xERA, 19.8% strikeout rate, and 5.2% walk rate over his five outings. He faced the Rangers last week and allowed two earned runs over five innings with five punchouts. Although seeing the same team two times in a row isn't ideal, the positive start last time out is encouraging, and our Jim Sannes likes the over on Sears' strikeout prop tonight.

Meanwhile, Texas will also have a left-hander on the mound in Patrick Corbin. Corbin has been less impressive over his three starts, recording a 4.91 xERA, 15.9% K rate, and 7.9% BB rate. He'll also face the same lineup for the second start in a row, and while he allowed just two earned runs over five innings, he did so off a pair of home runs.

We've seen Corbin have home run issues for a long, long time now as he's coughed up 1.6 HR/9 going back to the start of 2021 -- a sample of 693 1/3 innings. It just so happens the A's pack enough punch to take advantage of this flaw, too. The Athletics' active roster has the second-best ISO (.192) versus left-handed pitching since the start of last season.

We should expect the A's to have more success against Corbin tonight, and if Sears can hold serve, they will have a good shot to come out in front after the first five frames.

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

Tigers ML (-106)

The Detroit Tigers have the best record in the American League and are in a great spot to add another win on Monday against the Houston Astros.

Jack Flaherty will start for Detroit, and he's rocking a 2.97 SIERA and 30.6% K rate to begin his 2025 campaign. Against right-handed pitching, the Astros' active roster is just 25th in wRC+ (86) and 29th in ISO (.105) this season, so another strong outing should be coming for Flaherty.

Houston will have righty Ronel Blanco taking the mound, and he's been much more of a mixed bag, producing a 4.75 SIERA through his five starts. The Tigers should have a fair number of lefties in the top half of the lineup, and that's notable because Blanco is showing worrisome numbers against that side of the plate with a 6.36 xFIP, 9.5% strikeout rate, and 14.3% walk rate in the split.

The Tigers' bats are off to a strong start against right-handers, too, as they're tied for ninth in wRC+ (112) in the split.

In a matchup that's basically being priced as a toss-up, Detroit is an appealing team to back tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.