Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction: Who Will Score First Goal in Tonight's World Cup Match?

Chris Beck

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Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction: Who Will Score First Goal in Tonight's World Cup Match?

Turkey vs Paraguay First Goal Scorer Odds, Picks & Best Bets — World Cup 2026 | FanDuel

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● TONIGHT — 11:00 PM ET · LEVI'S STADIUM, SANTA CLARA · FS1

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D · Matchday 2 · FanDuel Sportsbook

Turkey vs Paraguay: First Goal Scorer Odds, Picks & Best Bets

Aktürkoğlu the primary first-goal pick · Güler the regression value dart · Enciso the counter-attack first-goal · full first goal board, mechanism breakdown & parlays · loser faces elimination.

Friday June 19, 2026 · All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook · Confirm lineup before wagering · Must be 21+

🇹🇷

Turkey ML

+105

Draw

+230

Over 2.5

+120

🇵🇾

Paraguay ML

+280

🇹🇷 Turkey 0-2 Australia (30 shots, 0 goals) 🇵🇾 Paraguay 1-4 USA (MD1) ⚡ First goal is ENORMOUS — loser faces elimination ⚠️ Almiron injury doubt — check lineup

⚡ Why The First Goal Is The Biggest Bet of the Night

Rotowire puts it plainly: "The first goal will be enormous for both teams' psychology — whoever scores first is the clear favourite to advance." Both Turkey and Paraguay sit on zero points. Both need to win. Neither can draw. The psychological weight of the first goal is higher than any other match at this World Cup — it shifts the entire tactical dynamic, from both teams pressing to one team defending. Whoever scores first is the clear favourite to advance to the Round of 32.

Aktürkoğlu is the primary first-goal pick — listed as the first goalscorer favourite at +525 on Sportsgambler, leading the Oddschecker market at 9/4 anytime, and operating as Turkey's striker most directly in line to finish Turkey's first opportunity. Güler at approximately +700 is the regression dart — 8 attempts vs Australia, 0 goals, with the same creative license against a weaker Paraguay defence. Enciso is the counter-attack first-goal pick — both Australia goals against Turkey came from counter-attacks, and Enciso is Paraguay's most direct counter weapon.

First goal odds from Sportsgambler (+525 Aktürkoğlu confirmed) and Oddschecker/Tips.GG market data. Check FanDuel live board for exact prices. Subject to change. Must be 21+.

⭐ Primary Pick: Aktürkoğlu First Goal ~+525

🏆 PRIMARY FIRST GOAL PICK Sportsgambler listed favourite

Kerem Aktürkoğlu — Turkey ST

Fenerbahce · confirmed starting · Turkey's central striker · Tips.GG + Yahoo Sports top scorer pick

First Goal

~+525

Anytime

~+300

2+ Goals

~+1600

⭐ Sportsgambler: first goal favourite at +525 Tips.GG: market-leading anytime at 9/4 · Squawka: top scorer pick Yahoo Sports: "Turkey's most dangerous attacking threat" — top scorer pick Central striker — physically first in line to finish Turkey's opening attack

⚙️ Why Aktürkoğlu — Not Güler — Is the First Goal Pick

Güler is Turkey's creative engine, but the first goal in this match is more likely to come from the striker physically positioned furthest forward:

1. When Turkey win possession in the attacking third, Aktürkoğlu is first in goal-threat position.
2. When Calhanoglu delivers an early set piece — a corner or free kick in the first 20 minutes — Aktürkoğlu is the primary finishing target in the box.
3. When Güler creates from the right, he threads through-balls toward Aktürkoğlu's runs — generating the inside-the-box finishing chances that produce Turkey's first goal.

The first goal in a match where Turkey press high from minute one does not typically go to the creative AM — it goes to the striker who converts the first clear chance.

Sportsgambler lists Aktürkoğlu as the explicit first goalscorer favourite at +525. He has three qualifying goals for Turkey in their eight-match qualifying campaign where they scored 19 total — the highest volume of any Turkish forward. Against Paraguay's back four, which conceded four goals and failed to deal with USA's direct pressing, Aktürkoğlu's movement in behind and penalty-area presence is the most likely route to Turkey's opening goal of the match.

Bet recommendation: Aktürkoğlu First Goal ~+525. A $10 bet returns $62.50 total. The central striker in a team pressing aggressively from minute one carries the highest first-goal probability of any player in tonight's fixture.

Central striker — physically furthest forward · finishes first clear Turkey opportunity 3 qualifying goals for Turkey · most prolific in finishing role Tips.GG · Yahoo Sports · Squawka · Sportsgambler consistent — top scorer

Bet Aktürkoğlu First Goal ~+525 at FanDuel Bet Now

💎 Regression Dart: Güler First Goal ~+700

Arda Güler — Turkey AM

Real Madrid · FOX Sports +285 anytime · 8 attempts vs Australia · xG 0.26 · 0 goals

First Goal

~+700

Anytime

+285

FOX Sports headline anytime prop at +285 · highest-cited Turkey scorer pick 8 attempts vs Australia · xG 0.26 · 3 on target · zero goals — prime regression candidate Racing Post Bet Builder explicit component: Güler to score ~+700 first goal vs +285 anytime — 5.5x premium · worth backing at small stakes

Güler's first-goal probability is the stand-out regression value on the board. He generated 8 attempts and an xG of 0.26 against Australia without scoring. Against Paraguay's weaker defence, his attempts will be clearer and his xG will be higher. His scoring profile — finding space between the lines, arriving late into the area, collecting Calhanoglu's through-balls — means he is slightly more of a "second or third goal" scorer than an opener. But at ~+700 first goal vs +285 anytime, the regression argument applies regardless of timing. If he scores at all, there is a reasonable probability it comes early given Turkey's pressing game plan from minute one.

Bet recommendation: Güler First Goal ~+700 at small stakes alongside Aktürkoğlu ~+525 as the primary bet. A $5 bet on Güler returns $40 total if he opens the scoring. The 5.5x premium vs anytime reflects his scoring profile (second/third goal more likely than first) but at +700 the value compensates.

🇵🇾 Counter-Attack First Goal: Enciso ~+900

🇵🇾 COUNTER-ATTACK FIRST GOAL PICK

Julio Enciso — Paraguay FW

Strasbourg · confirmed fit · confirmed starting · counter-attack weapon · 4 goals recent run

First Goal

~+900

Yahoo Sports + Juvefc explicit anytime scorer pick for Paraguay Both Australia goals vs Turkey came from counter-attacks — Enciso is Paraguay's counter weapon Turkey's high defensive line was burned by AUS transitions — Paraguay's Alfaro has watched that tape 4 goals in recent international appearances · confirmed fit despite pre-tournament injury scare

Both of Australia's goals against Turkey came from counter-attacks. Turkey pushed men forward with their adventurous fullbacks and Australia exploited the space left in behind. Paraguay's Alfaro will have watched that tape and identified the same opportunity. Enciso's directness from Paraguay's 4-4-2 shape — operating between the lines and breaking in behind on quick transitions — is the exact profile that burned Turkey's defensive line in their opener. If Paraguay get in behind Turkey's high defensive line early, Enciso is the first-goal source on that side.

Bet recommendation: Enciso First Goal ~+900 at small stakes. This is a genuine scenario — Turkey's established counter-attack vulnerability means Paraguay scoring first is a live possibility, not just a dart. A $5 bet returns $50 total.

📋 Full First Goal Board — Turkey & Paraguay

🇹🇷 Turkey Player

Anytime

First Goal

⭐ Kerem Aktürkoğlu · ST

Fenerbahce · Sportsgambler first goal favourite · Tips.GG market leader · central striker · PRIMARY

~+300

~+525

💎 Arda Güler · AM

Real Madrid · FOX Sports +285 anytime · 8 attempts vs AUS · xG 0.26 · regression dart

+285

~+700

Kenan Yıldız · LW

Juventus · expected fit after knock · left wing · Oddschecker 3/1 · check lineup

~+320

~+700

Hakan Çalhanoğlu · CM

Inter Milan · 105 caps · 22 goals (3 pens) · captain · set-piece long dart

~+400

~+1000

Barış Alper Yılmaz · RW

May drop to bench if Yildiz confirmed — check lineup

~+450

~+1100

Deniz Gül · FW (bench)

Tips.GG co-favourite 1st goal at 6/1 · bench route only · skip for first goal market

~+500

~+900

Ferdi Kadıoğlu · LB

Brighton · overlapping LB · set-piece arrival only · extreme long dart

~+600

~+1400

🇵🇾 Paraguay Player

Anytime

First Goal

⭐ Julio Enciso · FW

Strasbourg · counter-attack first goal pick · Yahoo + Juvefc explicit · confirmed fit

~+300

~+900

Antonio Sanabria · ST

Torino · confirmed starting · physical striker · Oddschecker 18/5 anytime

~+350

~+1000

⚠️ Miguel Almiron · MID

INJURY DOUBT · DO NOT BET first goal until lineup confirmed

~+450

⚠️ TBC

Mauricio · MID

Scored vs USA · likely starts · long dart for first goal market

~+500

~+1200

Gustavo Gómez · CB

89 caps · captain · corner-kick header · extreme long dart only

~+700

~+2000

*First goal odds from Sportsgambler (+525 Aktürkoğlu confirmed) and Oddschecker/Tips.GG market data. Check FanDuel live board for exact prices. Almiron doubt — confirm lineup. Must be 21+. Subject to change.

💎 Value Analysis — First Goal vs Anytime

📐 Is the First Goal Premium Worth Paying in a Must-Win Game?

In this match, yes. Both teams need to win and will press aggressively from minute one. That aggressive early approach concentrates goal probability into the first 30 minutes more heavily than in a casual group game. The first-goal premium is worth paying here — especially for Aktürkoğlu, whose central position means the first chance falls directly to him.

✅ Primary: Aktürkoğlu First Goal ~+525

BACK IT

Sportsgambler's first goal favourite. Tips.GG anytime market leader at 9/4. Central striker physically in the first-goal position. Turkey press aggressively from minute one — the first clear chance goes to their striker. The primary first-goal bet on the board.

💎 Regression Dart: Güler First Goal ~+700

SMALL STAKES

FOX Sports +285 anytime. 8 attempts, 0 goals vs Australia — regression due. 5.5x premium vs anytime reflects his scoring profile (secondary scorer more often than opener), but at ~+700 the value compensates at small stakes. If he fires an early long-range effort — his natural scoring mechanism — this pays 8.5x.

🇵🇾 Counter Pick: Enciso First Goal ~+900

SMALL STAKES

Both Australia goals vs Turkey came from counter-attacks. Paraguay's Alfaro has clocked the same defensive vulnerability. Enciso is the counter-attack weapon most likely to score in behind Turkey's high defensive line. If Paraguay score first — a genuine live scenario — Enciso is the most likely source at ~+900.

💡 Consider: Yildiz ~+700 (if confirmed starting)

CONFIRM FIRST

Expected fit and starting on the left wing. If confirmed in the XI, his ~+700 first goal is as compelling as Güler's at the same price — direct left-foot finisher, natural threat in behind. Confirm lineup at FanDuel before backing.

🔴 Skip: Bench Sub First Goals (Gül ~+900, Bobadilla etc.)

NOT THE PLAY

Tips.GG lists Deniz Gül as a first-goal co-favourite at 6/1, but he starts on the bench. A bench player first-goal bet requires (1) coming on as a sub, then (2) scoring as the opener. That two-step pathway at ~+900 is not competitive vs Aktürkoğlu ~+525 who starts as the striker. Skip bench player first goals and back the confirmed starters.

🎯 First Goal Parlay Ideas

⚽ Turkey vs Paraguay · First Goal Parlay Ideas

Safe — Aktürkoğlu First + Turkey ML (~+800)

Aktürkoğlu First Goal ~+525 + Turkey ML +105. Correlated — if Aktürkoğlu opens the scoring, Turkey almost certainly win. Combined at approximately +800. Both legs point to the consensus game script.

Value SGP — Aktürkoğlu First + Over 2.5 Goals (~+1100)

Aktürkoğlu First Goal ~+525 + Over 2.5 Goals +120. If Aktürkoğlu opens and Turkey go on to score 3+ total, both legs settle. Turkey's qualifying averaged 4.83 goals per game. A 3-1 win where Aktürkoğlu opens settles both at approximately +1100.

Coverage — Aktürkoğlu First + Güler Anytime (~+2100)

Aktürkoğlu First Goal ~+525 + Güler Anytime +285. Aktürkoğlu opens, Güler adds later. A Turkey 2-1 or 3-1 win where both score covers both legs at approximately +2100.

Counter Chaos — Enciso First + Paraguay ML (~+3000)

Enciso First Goal ~+900 + Paraguay ML +280. If Paraguay score first AND win, this parlay pays approximately +3000. Turkey's counter-attack vulnerability (both AUS goals this way) makes this the chaos parlay of the evening. Micro-stakes only.

📋 First Goal Best Bets — Ranked Summary

⭐ #1 — Aktürkoğlu First Goal

Sportsgambler favourite · Tips.GG market leader · central striker · finishes Turkey's first chance

~+525

💎 #2 — Güler First Goal (regression dart)

FOX Sports +285 anytime · 8 attempts vs AUS · 0 goals · long-range mechanism · small stakes

~+700

🇵🇾 #3 — Enciso First Goal (counter-attack)

Both AUS goals vs Turkey from counters · Enciso is Paraguay's counter weapon · small stakes

~+900

💡 #4 — Yildiz First Goal (if confirmed starting)

Juventus · direct left-foot finisher · same price as Güler · check lineup first

~+700

🎯 SGP — Aktürkoğlu First + Turkey ML (~+800)

Correlated · striker opens scoring in Turkey win · consensus game script

~+800

FanDuel Sportsbook — World Cup 2026 First Goal Props

Bet First Goal Scorer — 11 PM ET Tonight

Aktürkoğlu ~+525 · Güler ~+700 · Enciso ~+900 · Yildiz ~+700 (if starting)

Bet Now

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook · Subject to change · Confirm lineup before wagering · Almiron doubt — check lineup · Must be 21+ · Play responsibly

Which World Cup bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds to see the full menu of options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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