Scores24 picks him explicitly: "Against a Tunisia defense that's clearly struggling, the striker could make his mark. Our pick: Ayase Ueda to score." compare.bet rates him as "three-star value." TNTSports: "Against a Tunisia defence that has conceded 11 times in five matches, Japan's central striker should get chances." ESPN notes Japan are likely to have more of the ball in this game than against the Netherlands — more ball means more Ueda service directly into the box. At +160, the implied probability (~38%) is conservative for the starting striker of the dominant favourite against a defence in crisis. A $10 bet at +160 returns $26 total.

Kamada is the single most cited explicit scorer pick across every source covering this match. Juvefc: "Kamada has already scored at this World Cup and leads Japan's recent scorers list with five goals across their last cycle of games. With Tunisia likely to drop deep and invite pressure after conceding early, Japan's attacking midfielders will get into goalscoring positions, and Kamada has shown the composure to take them." OneFootball: "Daichi Kamada rescued a point in the opener with two late goals against the Netherlands and pulls the strings from an advanced midfield role." His late-arriving runs from the CAM position align almost perfectly with Japan's documented pattern of scoring in the second half.

Doan's qualifying stats place him in the top 1-2% of wide players in Asia for shots and shot accuracy. His specific matchup against Tunisia LB Ali Abdi is flagged by PrizePicks as a "favorable matchup" — Abdi was rated in the bottom quartile for defensive contributions against Sweden. Doan cutting inside against this specific defensive unit is a legitimate anytime scorer case. Oddschecker explicitly names him as the player whose involvement will increase most in this match. Back at slightly smaller stakes than Ueda or Kamada.

Maeda came into the tournament in blistering Celtic form — seven goals in his final five SPL appearances — then had a quiet game against the Dutch. Racing Post explicitly backs him as their scorer value pick for this match, noting he "looks a decent price to take one of the chances that will fall his way in Monterrey." Against a Tunisia defence that conceded five to Sweden, a clinical striker in peak SPL form should get at least two or three clear opportunities.

Nakamura's 11 goals in 26 caps is remarkable for a wing-back. He scored against the Netherlands just days ago and is Japan's corner and free-kick deliverer — giving him a direct set-piece goal route in addition to his open-play threat. At approximately +200, he represents a genuine anytime value option for a player who demonstrated his scoring ability recently. Back at small stakes as a supplementary pick alongside Ueda and Kamada.