TOUR Championship: Best Bets, Course Info, and Key Stats

The PGA Tour's season ends this week at East Lake with the TOUR Championship.

Based on the FedExCup Standings, golfers will begin the event with a particular starting score, with the leader in FedEx Points, Scottie Scheffler, starting at -10.

Here's how each golfer starts the week in terms of their starting score.

With that in mind, there are different ways to bet the event, including a gross 72-hole score (which won't factor in starting scores) and an outright market (which will include the starting scores).

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

TOUR Championship Event Info
East Lake Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 71
• Distance: 7,490 yards (long)
• Average Fairway Width: 24.4 yards before restoration (very narrow)
• Average Green Size: 6,238 square feet (average)
• Green Type: Bermuda
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores (Net): -27, -21, -21, -21, -18
• Recent Winning Scores (Gross): -19, -14, -17, -13, -19

East Lake Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie or Better Rate

East Lake added distance (around 150 yards) since last year’s TOUR Championship in a total rebuild of the course, and it will also be played as a par 71 rather than a par 70 this season.

The fairways have been reshaped -- as have the greens complexes. There are four more bunkers (up to 78) but also 20 fewer acres of rough with wider fairways.

With starting strokes in effect, birdies and eagles will be required to make up ground, so pushing for scoring will be a key this week.

As for the net winners (i.e. with starting strokes factored in), their starting scores have been -8, -4, -10, -10, and -5. Rory McIlroy has won two TOUR Championships while starting -5 or worse. Viktor Hovland won last year starting at -8 (the second-best starting score possible).

This does mean that the pre-tournament leader has lost 60.0% of the time thus far since the implementation of starting strokes in 2019.

TOUR Championship Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Scottie Scheffler

• Odds to Win TOUR Championship (+110)
• 72 Hole Strokeplay Winner (Without Starting Strokes) (+470)

Scheffler starts at -10, and his odds to win the net scoring and overall TOUR Championship sit at +110. Mathematically, that's a solid bet, too, according to my model.

However, we start to see more separation in the odds with Scheffler going out and posting the best 72-hole score in the field. My model has him around +400 to do just that.

Scheffler leads the field in strokes gained: off the tee and strokes gained: approach over the last 50 rounds, per datagolf.

The primary concern is that he's not a great putter on Bermudagrass and that he hasn't necessarily played East Lake well -- results-wise.

His putting has been bad on the greens (which are now renovated), but he ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained: tee to green at East Lake since 2019. With positive putting (or even neutral putting), he could finally clinch the TOUR Championship while starting at -10, which he has failed to do each of the last two years.

Tommy Fleetwood

• 72 Hole Strokeplay Winner (Without Starting Strokes) (+2000)

Fleetwood's form is pretty strong over the last three months (he ranks seventh in strokes gained: tee to green in that span and fourth in strokes gained: ball-striking). He's also fourth in accuracy over the last three months.

However, he starts at just -1, and that's a tall order for running down the top of the board in terms of net scoring.

As for the gross scoring, though, Fleetwood has a case, and he has the right number. My model sees him a smidge better than 20/1 to post the top 72-hole score.

Fleetwood has finished 13th and 9th in gross scoring in his two starts at East Lake over the last five years. Paired with his form now, he's in a good spot to play his way up the leaderboard.

Collin Morikawa

• To Finish Top 5 (With Starting Strokes) (+260)

I can't stop considering Morikawa with how good his game is overall.

After a blip at the FedEx St. Jude Championship with the irons (his first event with negative SG:APP in nine starts leading in), he gained at the BMW Championship in his go-to category.

He also picked up fairways relative to the rest of the field.

He just didn't putt well for the second time in three weeks.

Basically, he hasn't put it all together in an event since mid-July when he finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open.

He's starting at -4, which has him T6 and one shot behind the top five.

Russell Henley

• To Finish Top 10 (With Starting Strokes) (+180)

Henley is beginning the TOUR Championship at -2, which has him starting at T16 with a cluster of five golfers at -3 standing in his way of climbing into the top 10.

However, Henley is accurate (fourth) and sits fifth in strokes gained: approach through putting. Basically, he should hit the fairway, and from there, he's one of the best golfers in the field.

Henley also rates out as a top-seven putter on Bermudagrass among this field over the last two years. He should be able to make up ground and net another strong outing to end the season.

Patrick Cantlay

• Odds to Win TOUR Championship (+4500)

Cantlay is starting in the -4 cluster, which means he needs to run down names at the top of the board. Even with his game not where we may expect, the data says he can do that.

His ceiling (based on standard deviations) is still top-five in the field over the last 12 weeks.

Cantlay's Bermudagrass putting is one of the better marks in the field, and if looking for a bit of a sleeper in the overall TOUR Championship fold, he and Sam Burns (also +4500) are appealing to consider for partial units in case Scheffler and Schauffele can't close it out starting from ahead.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.