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NFL Week 14 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 14's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 14 Predictions
Packers at Lions Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -6.0
Total Prediction: 52.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is even with pretty significant downgrades to the Detroit Lions' defense due to all their injuries. They'd get downgraded a bit more if tackle Taylor Decker were ruled out, and he did miss practice again on Monday.
Raiders at Buccaneers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -10.1
Total Prediction: 46.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I upgraded the Las Vegas Raiders with how well Aidan O'Connell played on Black Friday but am still showing value in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even after a rough game Sunday, their offense grades out too well for me to not continue backing them.
Browns at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Steelers -7.0
Total Prediction: 43.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Jaguars at Titans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Titans -5.2
Total Prediction: 38.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This, obviously, is with Trevor Lawrence assumed as out. I'm just not super itchy to lay points with Will Levis, given how volatile he is.
Panthers at Eagles Prediction
Spread Prediction: Eagles -12.2
Total Prediction: 47.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Falcons at Vikings Prediction
Spread Prediction: Vikings -4.6
Total Prediction: 46.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Shoutout to the model for not forcing me to back the Atlanta Falcons for a third straight game. I can't take it any more.
Jets at Dolphins Prediction
Spread Prediction: Dolphins -5.8
Total Prediction: 41.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Both of these offenses are painfully slow, and the current forecast calls for 12 mph winds. Even though I'm high on the Miami Dolphins' offense, I'm comfortable taking the under here.
Saints at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: Saints -2.7
Total Prediction: 42.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I've downgraded the New Orleans Saints quite a bit as Taysom Hill's injury leaves them with just one playmaker in the offense. The New York Giants' defense got downgraded, as well, without Dexter Lawrence, but I'm still showing a bit of value in the Giants' moneyline.
Seahawks at Cardinals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cardinals -3.2
Total Prediction: 46.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bears at 49ers Prediction
Spread Prediction: 49ers -6.5
Total Prediction: 45.1
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: It's hard to back the San Francisco 49ers even though I'm showing pretty significant value. Currently assuming that Trent Williams sits. If he's able to go, that might be the one thing that could get me to change my mind and actually buy into the value.
Bills at Rams Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -2.7
Total Prediction: 50.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Showing value in the Los Angeles Rams' moneyline due to how efficient the offense has been since Puka Nacua's return. Their early-down passing efficiency numbers are absolutely unhinged in this span, so I don't mind swinging for the fences despite respecting the Buffalo Bills.
Chargers at Chiefs Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -4.3
Total Prediction: 47.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Would lose a bit of interest in the over if Ladd McConkey can't go, but the Kansas City Chiefs' offense has remained efficient since DeAndre Hopkins' arrival, and the defense has shown some cracks the past two games.
Bengals at Cowboys Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bengals -6.7
Total Prediction: 47.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Zero chance I get a total into the 50s when one of the quarterbacks is Cooper Rush, so I'm fine taking the under here. The Dallas Cowboys' defense has looked a bit better the past two weeks, which doesn't hurt matters.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
