Today's Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Week 6

The public is getting crushed this year. According to Action Network's consensus data, sides getting 60% or more of the tickets are 13-30 against the spread (ATS). The new kickoff has helped them recoup some with overs, but there are a few landmines that await once again in Week 6. Careful with that London game, too.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what we project from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Browns +3.5 in First Half (-115)
Quinshon Judkins Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

The Cleveland Browns' quarterback drama is such a huge story because, if the team can get just average production from the position, the rest of the roster is so good.

Cleveland is numberFire's fifth-ranked schedule-adjusted defense to this point, and they're the very best unit at stuffing the run. That's a crucial component to this matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers when Pittsburgh, in two of its wins, has really coasted on its run game.

Per NFL's Next Gen Stats, Aaron Rodgers' vibes of a hot start aren't exactly true at -0.02 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db). "Not a trainwreck" might be a more accurate way to characterize it. Spots like this where a one-dimensional Steelers offense could have the 40-year-old as a sitting duck with Myles Garrett and Mason Graham flying at him could change the trajectory of their entire season.

Frankly, I can't trust Dillon Gabriel (-0.12 EPA/db) to do anything but short circuit if this game is tight late. Yet, the Browns had a halftime lead in London last week against the Minnesota Vikings on the basis of a Kevin Stefanski script and their defense. I can get behind another strong first half with that formula when getting a key number of three.

One of the players that can propel them there in Quinshon Judkins.

Any concerns of the running back's enigmatic offseason are gone. Judkins is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards over expectation per carry (1.52 RYOE/c), per Next Gen Stats. He leads the NFL in rushing yards against fronts with at least eight guys in the box (154).

You're already looking a top-five rusher in the NFL that has been unfazed by the hardest circumstances to produce. He's topped 80 rushing yards in three games with way, way more called back due to penalties.

Pittsburgh is nF's 11th-ranked rush defense, but that seems a bit less scary when Judkins has already faced two top-10 units. The back is seemingly matchup proof.

FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections expect 88.8 median rushing yards in Week 6. That's second to only Jonathan Taylor among Sunday's games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Dolphins +4.5 (-120)

Beware falling for the trap in this 1 p.m. EST window.

The Los Angeles Chargers make the long trek from SoCal off a game in a horrific state. RB Omarion Hampton joins EDGE Khalil Mack and the team's three top offensive tackles, including backup swing OT Trey Pipkins III, confirmed as missing Sunday's contest. That makes this game with the Miami Dolphins a fairer fight.

Miami collapsed in Charlotte last week, but that 24-point effort showed the offense was still fine without Tyreek Hill -- as expected. The problem was they let Rico Dowdle become Walter Payton, but L.A.'s uninspiring tandem of Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal just aren't a threat to exploit nF's 32nd-ranked rush D. Neither have eclipsed have eclipsed 35 rushing yards in a game in the NFL, so take the under on 200.

If there's one thing the Dolphins have, it's a decent pass rush. They've mustered a 31.7% pressure rate with Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, and Chop Robinson. That could be substantially higher in what would be the first game of the year they weren't gashed via the ground.

Four points could be an extremely key number in this matchup that figures to be low-scoring. The Bolts are nF's ninth-ranked defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars

Under 47.5 Points (-110)

As is the case in my 49ers-Buccaneers best bets, fading that crazy shootout between Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield with two elite defenses is probably the play.

The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense has carried them beyond just the +8 turnover differential that's well-known to this point. They're numberFire's third-ranked overall defense, and they're third against the pass when Darnold (0.25 EPA/db) has packed this scoring unit's punch more than its inefficient rushing duo.

At the same time, the Seattle Seahawks can also make Jacksonville play how they'd prefer not to play. Seattle is nF's second-ranked rush D when every Trevor Lawrence drop back is an adventure. It'll be on TLaw's shoulders against a banged-up Seattle secondary that, clearly, struggled a week ago.

Health is why I lean Jacksonville in this near pick 'em, but the better play is the under if Lawrence (-0.02 EPA/db) is the most potent threat to it. Frankly, the lone concern for this side might be ill-timed turnovers on the wrong side of the 50-yard line.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers

Matthew Golden Anytime Touchdown (+195)

I remain astounded how poorly we evaluate wide receivers because targets are not earned. A golden era of offensive coordinators is just forcing them to certain players outside of necessity.

Emeka Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan have carried dreadful receiving corps for their squads, but Matthew Golden has been as impressive in limited opportunities playing for the deepest corps of weapons in the league. In two weeks since Jayden Reed's broken collarbone injury, Golden's 22.2% catch rate over expectation is exceptional. He's earned 41.6% of the Green Bay Packers' air yards. He's second on the team in end zone target share (18.2%).

There's just one problem. He hasn't found the end zone.

That could easily change opposite a Cincinnati Bengals team allowing the second-most end zone targets (11) and eighth-most downfield targets (46) to the position.

Green Bay's 29.5-point team total is enormous here, and Cincinnati's midweek acquisition of Joe Flacco could make them a little bit more competitive. Our projections are forecasting 0.45 median total TDs for Golden in this matchup, implying closer to +176 odds for a score.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.