Today's Best Bets NFL Bets and Player Props for Week 1

It's finally here. The first full Sunday of Week 1.

While Thursday and Friday's island games -- and good ones -- were an appealing appetizer, the main slate is a series of games we've thought about, pondered, and contemplated for weeks.

These lines have moved for weeks -- if not months. How do we avoid bad numbers that have surged past value range? Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

As always, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what we project from each player across key statistical categories, too.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Panthers Under 21.5 Points (-136)

The reality of the NFL is optimism and hope befitting every NFL fanbase currently will turn in at least 10 duds. I think the Carolina Panthers return one.

Carolina fans were encouraged by Bryce Young's end to the season in terms of point totals, but adjusting for competition, his final 10 games still weren't "good" at -0.01 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) and a 41.7% passing success rate. Frankly, the 5'10" (listed) quarterback made a lot of hay with his legs, which I'm not sure is sustainable.

To me, the Jacksonville Jaguars have had a lot of time to plan for a Panthers unit that, this particular week swapping in Tetairoa McMillan in for Jalen Coker (quad), isn't that different. If Chuba Hubbard's career-best efficiency goes anywhere, this team is in trouble.

Jacksonville added Travis Hunter and Caleb Ransaw in the first two days of the draft to numberFire's worst schedule-adjusted pass D a year ago, too. I think they'll hold the Panthers under three total scores. Carolina came in south of this total in 7 of Young's 12 starts last season.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Jerome Ford Anytime Touchdown (+138)

New shiny toys at running back are all across the NFL. People are stoked to bet Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and others for the first time.

It's the dusty old option holding value, though.

Jerome Ford is expected to have a "workhorse type of role", per Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot. The anointment of 5'9" rookie Dylan Sampson -- as the Cleveland Browns realistically wait for Quinshon Judkins to get up to speed -- seems to be on hold.

Ford was sneaky good last year, posting 72.4 scrimmage yards in nine games where he played at least 50% of the snaps. This, of course, was next to horrible quarterbacking that veteran Joe Flacco might be able to correct for Cleveland as he did in 2023.

The Cincinnati Bengals lost Sam Hubbard from a rush defense that was nF's 26th-ranked schedule-adjusted unit, as well. This defense could be historically awful, and a featured back on the other side is plus money to score?

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Moneyline (+100)

Through print and podcast, I've banged the drum for the Seattle Seahawks emerging from a wide-open NFC with a season not many are expecting. This is a pivotal swing game if that's going to happen.

Why am I all in on the Seahawks? They've put the pieces together well. Klint Kubiak brings the same Shanahan-style offense from New Orleans that Sam Darnold just lit the NFL ablaze inside. Seattle's talented running backs got a massive offensive line upgrade in the draft, and this was numberFire's 10th-ranked overall defense last year. On paper, they're a juggernaut if they find enough answers on the perimeter from Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp.

For similar reasons as previous years, I'm out on aging, injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers squad, too. This is precisely where the wins might come from as Brock Purdy went 5-9 without Christian McCaffrey (calf) last year and waived goodbye to several defensive pieces, including Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. Purdy's weaponry is pretty unsettled outside of George Kittle, too.

Personally, it's impossible to trust McCaffrey's health at this stage after a similar thumbs up he gave prior to last year's opener.

FanDuel's win total for S.F. was 10.5. It was 8.5 for Seattle. Why is this game so close? A raucous crowd might be able to will their mean defense to steal one from a hobbled division rival.

Brock Purdy Under 243.5 Passing Yards (-113)

This wasn't a matchup Brock Purdy enjoyed a year ago, either.

He managed just 207.0 passing yards per game in a pair of battles with Mike McDonald's eighth-ranked pass defense in 2024 -- a unit that added Nick Emmanwori at safety in the second round. Good luck!

The Niners' offensive line will also be down its second-best lineman in the form of Dominick Puni (knee), turning to a rookie (Connor Colby) in its stead. You can check out the depth chart, filled with questions outside of Trent Williams, and ask yourself if you're backing the inconsistent passer with those men out front.

If you break it down holistically, Purdy averaged just 252.8 yards per game through the air in games without McCaffrey last season. If CMC is playing, their rush rate will rise, and we can also expect the low end of efficiency in a road date with one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections expect just 238.0 passing yards from him in this spot.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.