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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 9

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 9

It's fitting that we just saw Halloween come and go because some of these NFL spreads at FanDuel are spooky. Off a dramatic win, the 6-2 Washington Commanders are...just four-point favorites over the pitiful New York Giants? The unstoppable Buffalo Bills cost less than a touchdown against the 2-5 Miami Dolphins?

Those are just two of five divisional games in Week 9, and we know divisional games can get weird. Which ones are traps?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Chuba Hubbard Anytime Touchdown (+100)

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The drama around Chuba Hubbard's anytime touchdown prop might be the Carolina Panthers scoring at all, but Hubbard should be able to contribute for Carolina himself on that front here.

The New Orleans Saints are the only other team besides Carolina in the NFL to drop their last five games, and while Derek Carr might resurrect the Saints' offense, their real issue has been getting gashed on the ground in recent weeks. Overall, NOLA is numberFire's second-worst schedule-adjusted rush defense, and they've surrendered seven rushing scores in the last five games.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Brooks' NFL debut will wait for another week, handing the keys perhaps one last time to Hubbard in the backfield. He's handled 68.6% of the Panthers' backfield snaps, translating to 14.8 carries and 2.3 red zone carries per game.

Carolina's team total is 17.5 points on FanDuel. If they're going to score on this run-funnel defense, expect their top back to be involved. Even money is delightful here.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Dolphins +5.5 (-102)

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As someone who took a position against this Miami Dolphins team for the past two years, it's interesting this is the spot where the public is jumping ship. 74% of the bets and 83% of the money at FanDuel is on the Buffalo Bills.

Tua Tagovailoa is back, and we saw the difference he made last week even if the Arizona Cardinals snatched away the win with excellent clock management late. Tua posted 0.22 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), and the Fins running game was back in earnest with 150 yards on just 25 carries.

The latter is Buffalo's relative "weakness" even though they're still 11th against the rush, per nF's schedule-adjusted metrics. Miami is 10th, which could provide some resistance as the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans did in the Bills' two losses.

Urgency is a fickle concept in the NFL. Buffalo has virtually none, sitting with -1400 odds to win the AFC East. At 2-4, the Dolphins are fixated on the Wild Card, which is wholly realistic if the offense is as efficient as it was last week down the stretch. I'll take the points given the visitors have significantly more to play for in Week 9.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Over 48.5 Points (-105)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 5.5 Receptions (-102)

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It feels like a fever dream that the Seattle Seahawks once had the best defense in numberFire's rankings after Week 4. They've since slid to 21st in those rankings behind lousy efforts, and they're likely meeting the Los Angeles Rams at the wrong time.

Off the heels of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp's return, Matthew Stafford posted 0.49 EPA/db and four touchdowns last Thursday. In addition to Kyren Williams' weekly efforts near the century mark on the ground, L.A. appears positioned to score on anyone.

Their defense just hasn't matched the same level. The Rams are 25th against both the pass and the rush, and we've seen Seattle meet or exceed 23 points in six of eight games this season. This matchup also has an exceptional blend of adjusted pace and pass rate, per FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula.

Though it'd be more comfortable to take the over if D.K. Metcalf (knee) was going to suit up, these teams should bring offense to the table on Sunday.

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Metcalf's absence also opens the door for more Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the Seahawks.

It's a silver lining for Seattle fans to perhaps see a little more out of JSN, the first-round pick in 2023. Smith-Njigba earned a 25.9% target share and 46.7% air yard share in Week 8, the team's first without Metcalf. Tyler Lockett saw just three targets, and Noah Fant (groin) will join Metcalf on the sidelines this week.

Our Week 9 NFL projections expect 5.8 catches on 9.2 targets for Smith-Njigba in a positive matchup against L.A. I'm backing his receptions in lieu of yardage given a low average depth of target for the season as a whole (7.9 aDOT), but it wouldn't be surprising to see both cash.


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Which bets stand out to you for today's action? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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