Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 17

Week 17 hasn't gotten off to the best start. While Saturday's action was an improvement over a pair of Christmas Day blowouts and a Thursday Night finale with no offense, we'll hopefully get to the main entrée on Sunday.

We've got a few standout nominees, including an afternoon dandy between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings with huge NFC playoff implications. A rookie quarterback duel also caps the day as the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders battle in D.C.

With gaps in motivation, how can we bet a reduced board on Sunday?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Under 37.5 Points (-106)

The cold reality of betting the NFL? The best games to watch aren't always where the value lies. The Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints are on a race to the bottom of the league, and this game could be U-G-L-Y without an alibi.

Las Vegas will struggle to move the ball because of their preference to pass. Aidan O'Connell (-0.03 expected points added per drop back; EPA/db) has been effective in recent weeks against the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars, but all rank considerably better against the rush than pass in numberFire's schedule-adjusted efficiency rankings.

New Orleans is the opposite. While they're 30th against the rush, they're actually a top-10 unit (9th) against the pass -- an edge to the Saints D.

Of course, NOLA was just the first team to get shut out last week themselves, too. Las Vegas' defense has kept playing with passion and pride despite the absence of Maxx Crosby, allowing just 20.3 points per game over the last four weeks.

Spencer Rattler (-0.38 EPA/db) is a disaster, which will make it hard for the Saints to score most weeks. Las Vegas' own issues moving the ball could make this game incredibly low-scoring.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Titans Moneyline (-108)

A hideous 10-6 game between these two teams went down in Week 14. The difference was a costly Will Levis turnover. With him benched, I like the Tennessee Titans in the rematch.

Levis (-0.28 EPA/db) has given way to a significantly more effective Mason Rudolph (-0.07 EPA/db), and the Titans' fortunes have improved. They nearly completed an epic comeback in a 38-30 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.

Notably, Rudolph might be an advantage over Mac Jones (-0.13 EPA/db) when there's zero doubt which of these two clubs which one has the better defense. For the entire season, Tennessee is 22nd in nF's schedule-adjusted rankings when the Jags (32nd) sit dead last.

As these cellar-dwellers battle in Week 17, there won't be a huge, raucous crowd in one of the NFL's worst home environments to start. That eases (negates?) the impact of home field, and the Titans are playing better than Jacksonville -- representing Las Vegas' first win in 10 weeks.

They should arguably be road favorites in this spot, but a 2-13 against the spread (ATS) record won't earn the money of many public bettors.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Justin Jefferson Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The game of the day just isn't one that piques my betting interest. This pick 'em spread feels appropriate with a modest total (48.5). The one thing I can bet? Justin Jefferson's greatness.

Jefferson might just now be emerging as the Vikings continue to progress in the Sam Darnold era. He's seen 33 total targets in the last three games, which is good for a 33.0% share of the Minnesota Vikings' looks during this span. He's pulled away from Jordan Addison (29.0%), Aaron Jones (10.0%), and T.J. Hockenson (17.0%) in this time -- the latter of which is really taking the step back.

Of course, Jettas is Jettas with them. He's fourth among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.80).

We can put Jaire Alexander narratives on the shelf; he's out again with a knee injury on Sunday. Green Bay's fourth-ranked pass D might also be a tinge inflated by level of competition. They allowed 283 passing yards to the Detroit Lions in Week 14 -- the only top-12 passing offense they've faced in six games.

FanDuel Research's Week 17 NFL DFS projections expect 96.8 receiving yards from Jefferson on Sunday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.