Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: Betting Picks, Props, and Prediction for Game 3

Though this Western Conference Finals matchup was highly anticipated, Luka Doncic might have taken the wind out of its sails entirely with a three-point dagger to steal Game 2 on the road and give the Dallas Mavericks a commanding 2-0 lead. On Sunday, this series resumes in Dallas.

Will the Mavs take a nearly insurmountable 3-0 lead at home, or do Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves have a counter punch to get themselves back in this series?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Timberwolves-Mavericks Betting Odds

Date and Time: Sunday, May 26th at 8:00 p.m. EST

Spread: Mavericks -3.0 (-110)

Total: 208.5

Moneyline:

• Timberwolves: +124
• Mavericks: -146

Timberwolves-Mavericks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Timberwolves:
  • nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 108.9 (1st)
  • Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1
• Mavericks:
  • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
  • Pace: 100.4 (8th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Best Bet

Timberwolves Halftime ML (+114)

Surprisingly, this bet is 2-0 thus far in the series despite Minnesota's 2-0 series deficit. I love this angle in Game 3.

It will be impossible for the Mavericks to summon the desperation that the Wolves bring to this one with their season effectively on the line. Teams facing a 3-0 series deficit have never come back to win the series in NBA history, and only four squads ever even were able to force a Game 7. Expect a mighty effort.

Dallas' slow starts in this series are based in their defense. Perhaps due to Doncic's knee injury and general motivation, they've allowed 12.5 wide-open three-point attempts in the first half of the series and ratcheted Minnesota down to just 7.5 in the second half of these two games. Minnesota has a +16.6 net rating in the first half during this series.

This trend should only get worse as Dallas exhales on their home floor and the Wolves fight for their life. Though key models like numberFire and Massey Ratings show decent value on the Wolves to win outright after four quarters, I'll apply that to this microcosm that's already been profitable despite Minnesota's late-game execution issues.

The Timberwolves dispatched the Denver Nuggets with a halftime deficit in Game 7 on Sunday, but it's hard to see that belief translating to this series given Doncic's surgical decision making at the end of games.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Player Prop to Target

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-122)

Once we get an idea of roles in individual series, you're not likely to find betting value riding the hot hand. It'll take leaning into some poor form or an ambiguous role to find, and that's what we have with Karl-Anthony Towns entering Game 3.

Towns has struggled to 10-for-36 (27.8%) shooting in the series to a point where he was most recently benched during closing time for Naz Reid. Reid drilled seven three-pointers in Game 2, so it was a perfect storm to sent KAT to the bench in hopes the Sixth Man of the Year's heater could power Minnesota to a win. Yet, Reid, missing his last attempt, ultimately sunk the T-Wolves' efforts.

Personally, I'm of the belief the Wolves will need Towns to win this series. Dallas' elite rim protection has ceded just a 48.6 eFG% inside 10 feet to begin the series, and KAT -- with 14 three-point attempts so far -- is arguably their best perimeter scorer. He's just been ice cold. In KAT's exact floor matchup, Reid gave the T-Wolves that boost in Game 2, but it could easily be Towns in Game 3.

numberFire has Towns projected for 19.5 points and 8.8 rebounds in Game 3 -- good for 28.3 points plus rebounds (PR). I love buying the dip on his poor shooting after we saw his backup torch the Mavericks on Friday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.