Thunder vs. Nuggets Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 5

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Info

• Date: Monday, May 5, 2025
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center -- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Coverage: TNT, truTV, and MAX

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9.5-point favorites in Game 1 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center on Monday, tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV, and MAX. The matchup has an over/under set at 224 points.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (74.9%)

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Thunder have put together a record of 54-26-2 against the spread this season.
• The Nuggets are 38-43-1 against the spread this year.
• Thunder games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under 44 times this season.
• Nuggets games this year have gone over the point total 59.8% of the time (49 out of 82 games with a set point total).
• In home games, Oklahoma City sports a better record against the spread (29-12-1) compared to its ATS record on the road (25-14-1).
• In home games, the Thunder go over the total 59.5% of the time (25 of 42 games). They've hit the over in 47.5% of games on the road (19 of 40 contests).
• Denver's winning percentage against the spread at home is .439 (18-23-0). Away, it is .488 (20-20-1).
• In 2024-25, a higher percentage of the Nuggets' games have finished above the over/under at home (63.4%, 26 of 41) compared to away (56.1%, 23 of 41).

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.7 points, 5 boards and 6.4 assists. At the other end, he averages 1.7 steals (fourth in NBA) and 1 block.
• Jalen Williams is averaging 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists. At the other end, he averages 1.6 steals (seventh in NBA) and 0.7 blocked shots.
• Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 11.2 points, 3.8 assists and 10.7 boards.
• Aaron Wiggins averages 12 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists, shooting 48.8% from the field and 38.3% from beyond the arc, with 1.7 made 3-pointers per game.
• Luguentz Dort is averaging 10.1 points, 4.1 boards and 1.6 assists.

Nuggets Leaders

• Per game, Nikola Jokic gives the Nuggets 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists. He also averages 1.8 steals (second in NBA) and 0.6 blocks.
• The Nuggets get 21.4 points per game from Jamal Murray, plus 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists.
• The Nuggets get 18.2 points per game from Michael Porter Jr., plus 7 rebounds and 2.1 assists.
• The Nuggets are receiving 15.4 points, 5.2 boards and 2.6 assists per game from Christian Braun.
• The Nuggets get 13.3 points per game from Russell Westbrook, plus 4.9 boards and 6.1 assists.

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