3 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 5/4/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox

Red Sox -1.5 in First 5 Innings (+112)

Baseball games aren't played on paper, but this one slants an extreme amount in the Boston Red Sox's direction.

Boston sends Garrett Crochet to the hill, and Crochet's dominant xERA (3.48) and strikeout rate (28.6%) haven't dropped off in his new location. Impressively, he's navigated Fenway for a 2.70 home ERA to this point.

The Minnesota Twins should struggle with him. They've managed just a .613 OPS (24th in MLB) against southpaws while punching out 26.9% of the time.

On the other side of the dish, the BoSox's .761 team OPS against righties (6th in MLB) draws Chris Paddack. Paddack is 40th percentile or worse across baseball in xERA (4.42), average exit velocity (90.0), and K% (17.9%).

While dodging a volatile bullpen situation at a hitter's paradise, can the home squad plate a couple of runs amidst a Crochet masterclass? I believe so.

Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays

Steven Kwan to Score a Run (+100)

Hitters like Steven Kwan don't get their flowers enough. Here's a small bouquet.

Kwan's .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching should set an immaculate tone for the Cleveland Guardians today against Toronto Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis. Francis' second year as a starter has gone anything but according to plan, recording a 7.45 xERA and allowing 3.23 HR/9 to this point.

The outfielder can be on base in front of the damage, and Bowden's 80.3% contact rate and 14.3% barrel rate might also allow for Kwan to dig for extra bases and create a little bit of that damage himself.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.69 runs from Kwan on Sunday. Seems solid at these coinflip odds.

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Oddsmakers are out in front of the Houston Astros' moonshot projections today.

Anyone drawing Bryse Wilson likely would have the same issue. Wilson's 6.67 xERA shows elevated flyball (40.7%), hard-hit (44.3%), and barrel (9.0%) rates behind it. There's a reason he's coughed up 2.00 HR/9 to this point.

Importantly, the Chicago White Soxs' starter has given up 2.45 HR/9 to same-handed batters versus 1.29 against lefties. Yordan Alvarez is the shortest bat in this market, but should it be Christian Walker?

Walker's first season in H-Town could be better, but he's contributed against righties with pops of power. His ISO (.170), flyball rate (39.8%) and hard-hit rate (33.8%) will all work against Wilson.

We've got the first baseman projected for 0.37 median home runs in this game, implying +224 odds for one if correct.

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Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.