The Sentry: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations

The PGA Tour kicks off the 2024 calendar year this week in Hawaii for The Sentry at Kapalua Resort (the Plantation Course).

The field comprises 59 golfers in a no-cut format.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Kapalua Resort (Plantation) Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 73
• Distance: 7,596 yards (long)
• Average Fairway Width: 49.2 yards (wide; 82nd of 87 courses)
• Average Green Size: 8,722 square feet (largest on Tour)
• Green Type: Bermuda
• Stimpmeter: 11
• Recent Winning Scores: -27, -34, -25, -14, -23
• Recent Cut Lines: N/A (no-cut event)

Kapalua Resort (Plantation) Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie or Better Rate

The Sentry Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

I'm interested in Scottie Scheffler most weeks, and this is one of them. Even without dominant putting, Scheffler has been in contention virtually every week for a year, and he won the Hero World Challenge in December by three shots while putting well. The model likes him enough this week to consider him at +500.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3000) is another name I'm eyeing based on the model's outputs. Fleetwood most recently finished T2 at the DP World Tour Championship in November and has really improved his putting baseline (while already being a good putter).

Other names of interest for outrights and finishing positions include Patrick Cantlay (+1200), Russell Henley (+4000), Eric Cole (+7000), Keegan Bradley (+8000), and J.T. Poston (+9000).

The Sentry Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

The Sentry DFS Studs

Scottie Scheffler ($12,400 | +500)

The 2024 calendar year could be huge for Scottie Scheffler, and there's no reason why it can't start this week at Kapalua. Scheffler has finished T13 and T7 at Kapalua in his two starts, and he has played well in all four facets in both starts, especially with the putter.

That's key for Scheffler, whose putter is the only thing that can hold him back. He ranks 57th among the 59 golfers in the field in strokes gained: putting over the past 50 rounds -- but is first in off-the-tee, approach, and around-the-green play.

My win simulation model -- as always -- is high on Scheffler, and the salary isn't high enough to divest from Scheffler as the top process play.

Patrick Cantlay ($11,400 | +1200)

Patrick Cantlay is probably longer off the tee than you realize (13th in this field over the past 50 rounds while gaining an average of 9.2 yards per drive on the average male pro), and that works for this week.

He also has been a bit cool with the putter (33rd in the field over the past 50 while gaining +0.21 strokes per round once adjusted for field strength, per datagolf).

With that in mind, regression should be on the way for a great long-term putter, and Cantlay finds himself at the bottom of the stud tier in terms of salary before a drop-off.

He's finished T15, 4th, T13, 4th, and T16 at Kapalua while putting extremely well.

Others to Consider:

• Viktor Hovland ($12,100 | +900)
• Tyrrell Hatton ($10,300 | +2800)
• Tommy Fleetwood ($10,200 | +3000)

The Sentry DFS Mid-Range Plays

Russell Henley ($9,600 | +4000)

Russell Henley is the key play in the $9,000 range for me. He stands out from a win simulation standpoint and also figures to see a lot of birdie chances this week, as he ranks sixth in the field in strokes gained: approach.

The putter is more of a question mark than we'd like, but that's factored into a mid-range salary for an otherwise elite ball-striker.

Henley finished sixth last year in strokes gained: approach at the Sentry yet was only T30 in the tournament due to bottom-three putting.

Eric Cole ($9,200 | +7000)

Although Eric Cole will be at a distance disadvantage this week (he's 47th in distance gained), everything else checks out.

He's 9th in the field in strokes gained: approach and 14th in combined strokes gained from his short game.

While Cole is making his Kapalua debut, he enters off a hot end to the fall.

He was 4th at the Fortinet Championship, T35 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, T3 at the Shriner's Children's Open, T2 at the ZOZO Championship, and T3 at The RSM Classic.

Others to Consider:

• Sam Burns ($9,900 | +3500)
• Brian Harman ($9,300 | +5000)

The Sentry DFS Value Plays

Keegan Bradley ($9,000 | +7500)

Keegan Bradley ended the 2023 calendar year with some good finishes down the stretch, and he heads to a course he's played four times to mixed results since 2012).

While it's true that Bradley's putter has been running hot (ninth over the past 50 rounds), he's still an average ball-striker in that span relative to this field.

He's also top-15 in distance, which helps him separate from other value plays.

J.T. Poston ($8,300 | +9000)

J.T. Poston will have to overcome driver this week (he's 49th in distance and 53rd in strokes gained: off the tee) but has the game otherwise to go low at this resort course.

Poston ranks second in the field in strokes gained: putting over the past 50 rounds and actually third in strokes gained: approach, around the green, and putting combined.

He's played Kapalua twice (T11 and T21 in limited fields, mind you), and the improved iron play in 2023 down the stretch is worth monitoring at a salary this low.

Others to Consider:

• Cameron Davis ($8,900 | +6000)
• Byeong Hun An ($8,200 | +7500)
• Adam Schenk ($7,100 | +17000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.