5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 4/13/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

Nationals Over 4.5 Runs (+108)

The Washington Nationals' projected improvement is definitely showing up. The 6-8 club has a real pulse offensively, and they can get after Cal Quantrill today.

Quantrill is continuing to give up too much hard contact, allowing a 56.2% hard-hit rate on balls in play. At just 6.0 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9, there are going to be a lot of them in play at MLB's fifth-best park for base hits.

Washington's .735 team OPS against righties is 11th-best in baseball right now. They are no longer a pushover. That label could sooner apply to a Miami Marlins bullpen with a 5.32 xFIP -- worst in MLB -- to this point.

Miami hits lefties like MacKenzie Gore well, or I'd have considered D.C.'s runline in this spot. Either way, their offense should have a solid day at the plate.

Luis Garcia to Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)

A contact pitcher should be a welcome sight for Luis Garcia to let regression do the rest.

In 2024, Garcia slugged right-handed pitching for a 120 wRC+ and .795 OPS. He was money in the bases category with just a 5.3% walk rate. A poor man's Luis Arraez was an excellent comp.

This season, Garcia's results are mediocre in the early small sample (49 wRC+), and he's still not walking much. Better days are ahead with a solid 45.2% hard-hit rate in Quantrill's split. He's just findin' gloves.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 1.68 median total bases for him on Sunday. The plus money here is attractive.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians

Over 7.5 Runs (+102)

This was a curious handicap, but both the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians have a path to runs today.

That's a perilous statement in a Cole Ragans start, but the southpaw's stellar profile does show a barrel rate (7.9%) that's 1.5 percentage points higher than last season in the early going, and Cleveland smashes left-handers. They're eighth in team OPS (.755) against them, and Kansas City's bullpen is a concern when Ragans departs, sitting 10th in reliever xFIP (4.20) at present.

Meanwhile, Ben Lively is struggling on the other side. Lively's 4.49 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is higher than last season, and these Royals scratched across three runs in five innings against him back in March. Lively's recent shutout of the lowly Chicago White Sox calmed what are otherwise concerning efforts.

Oddsmakers hanging a total this high with Ragans on the bump is pretty telling. I'll take an over that might fully require some bullpen variance.

MJ Melendez to Hit a Home Run (+630)

Lively's contact splits are why MJ Melendez is my favorite pick for a bomb today.

I buried the lede with the veteran righty. Lively's flyball (51.2%) and hard-hit (42.5%) rates allowed are both elevated, which have resulted in 1.26 HR/9 to this point. Again, that's worrisome when one of the starts was a freebie.

Meanwhile, Melendez is another batter not getting their fair share of knocks considering the way he's swinging it. His .272 OPS is frighteningly poor, but he's maintained improved flyball (52.6%) and hard-hit (36.8%) rates than what he posted last year against righties.

More tanks are on the way, and our projections agree. A forecast of 0.26 median home runs would usually deserve odds closer to +337 for a bomb.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Tigers Moneyline (+100)

We'll stay in the AL Central with a final pick.

The Detroit Tigers have every edge except the game's venue today. I'm not sure why they're underdogs.

Former top pick Casey Mize seems to have found something. He's parlayed a 1.89 ERA in spring training to a 0.77 ERA so far in 2025. That's decently supported by a 2.01 xERA and 27.9% K rate. Far worse hurlers have handled the Minnesota Twins, who show a .663 team OPS (20th in MLB) against right-handers so far.

Meanwhile, Simeon Woods Richardson remains vulnerable -- at best -- when checking his 5.38 xERA. Detroit has launched out of the gates with an .818 OPS against right-handers (2nd in MLB) themselves.

With the better offense, pitcher, and a top-10 bullpen (3.52 xFIP), what am I missing with the Stripes today? They can keep their hot start rolling.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.