The Move to Carolina Does Little for Diontae Johnson's Fantasy Football Value

Diontae Johnson's heyday could be behind him, making him a risky option for fantasy football. After signing a two-year, $36.71 million extension ahead of the 2022 season, Johnson's numbers have only gone down since.

He reached more than 900 receiving yards and at least 7 touchdowns in both 2020 and 2021, followed by 882 yards and 717 yards over the next two seasons. But Johnson's touchdown production has been almost nonexistent in recent seasons with five total scores across the past two campaigns.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had enough, trading the veteran wideout to the Carolina Panthers in the offseason. Perhaps a change of scenery is exactly what Johnson needs to get back to his old ways. What does the move to Carolina mean for his fantasy football value?

According to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR leagues, Johnson is tracking to be the 38th receiver off of draft boards. That's five spots above his WR43 finish last season.

Is there any legit upside to Johnson in his first season as a Panther?

Diontae Johnson Fantasy Football Outlook

High Usage, Low Efficiency Highlights Johnson's Best

Before we look at Johnson's recent decline, let's look at what he did well in the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

Johnson finished as WR23 in 2020, providing 16 spots of value on his ADP. The 2021 season provided another leap as he was WR9 after carrying a WR21 ADP.

For the most part, these numbers were thanks to sheer workload, especially in 2020. Johnson wasn't carrying good efficiency marks during the 2020 campaign: 69th in expected points added (EPA), 93rd in fantasy points per target, 48th in yards per route run, and 1st in drops (worst), per PlayerProfiler. The usage was everything fantasy managers hope for as Johnson was sixth in targets and target rate.

The 2021 season is the peak of Johnson's career -- by a mile.

Not only was the usage there that season -- second-most targets, fourth-highest target share, third-highest snap share, and eighth-most red zone targets -- Johnson also dramatically improved his efficiency. He was 36th in EPA, 30th in yards per route run, 63rd in fantasy points per target, and 10th in target separation. Most of these numbers are far from elite, but they are certainly improvements over 2020.

Johnson's fourth season (2022) is when things started to go awry. He still had the sixth-most targets and ninth-most routes run, yet Johnson went from being WR9 in 2021 to WR39.

So, what went wrong? Johnson failed to find the end zone one single time. That's right -- zero touchdowns. And that was with the 10th-most red zone targets, taking his EPA back up to 84th.

The problems continued into 2023. While he did miss four games due to a hamstring injury, Johnson's target share took a big dip, and his targets per game dropped from 8.6 to 6.7.

We already know Johnson is not the most efficient wideout -- as seen from ranking outside the top 40 in EPA yet again last season. When the usage goes down, Johnson's fantasy numbers are doomed (WR43 in 2023).

What should we expect in Carolina?

New Scenery, Same Story

The expectations for Johnson probably shouldn't change much with a location change.

George Pickens' emergence last year (25th in EPA) certainly played a major role in Johnson's declined usage, but we can't overlook how Pittsburgh's dreadful offense contributed to the drop off in touchdowns. The Steelers ranked 12th and 21st in points per game (PPG) in 2020 and 2021, and then dropped to 26th and 28th over the last two seasons.

Here's where the problem lays for Johnson: will the scoring chances really change that much on the Panthers?

Carolina tied the New England Patriots for the fewest PPG in the NFL last season. Just like Pittsburgh, the Panthers had cringe-worthy QB play with Bryce Young posting -0.31 EPA per drop back (EPA/DB) compared to Kenny Pickett's -0.21.

Young was surrounded by backups in this category, such as Brian Hoyer (-0.27), Tommy DeVito (-0.33), and Zach Wilson (-0.33). Those are not names you want to see for QB play.

Our touchdown regression piece for QBs highlighted Young as someone who is headed for more touchdowns as the rookie became the just the second quarterback in history to throw fewer than 12 TDs on more than 500 passing attempts in a season last year.

Still, we shouldn't expect too much improvement from this offense. numberFire's schedule-adjusted power ratings have Carolina carrying the second-worst offense for 2024. Additionally, FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds have Young's season-long TD prop set at only 17.5.

Johnson is moving from one bad offense to another. Seeing his touchdowns decline has been a clear problem for fantasy value, and this threat is alive and well for the upcoming season.

Diontae Johnson Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's fantasy football projections don't provide any comfort for Johnson's fantasy value.

His forecasted stats are 72 receptions, 119 targets, 928 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. Keep in mind this assumes that Johnson plays in all 17 games, giving him a per-game average of 7.0 targets and 54.6 yards. He had 6.7 targets and 55.2 yards per contest in 2023, so this projection is not much of an improvement.

Finding the end zone on four occasions would be nice -- it's certainly better than zero in 2022 -- but Johnson did score five times last year.

Similar to our conclusions, the projections are pretty much expecting the same Johnson from the last two seasons. He's projected to finish as WR38, which is also his ADP.

In conclusion, Carolina is simply a poor landing spot for Johnson. He's still part of a bad offense with shaky quarterback play (that's putting it nicely). Johnson may not even be Carolina's for-sure WR1 as Adam Thielen had 137 targets and 1,014 receiving yards in 2023, finishing 28 spots above his ADP. We can't overlook the addition of first-round rookie Xavier Legette, either.

Similar to last season's WR30 ADP, Johnson isn't generating much interest for fantasy in 2024. His ceiling is capped on a bad offense yet again. Don't put too many chips in on Johnson returning to peak form.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.