Picture it's Week 12 of the 2023-2024 NFL season. The Philadelphia Eagles have the best record in football at 10-1 and have just come off a trio of wins against powerhouse threats: the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Buffalo Bills. The Birds seem determined to book another trip to the Super Bowl.

However, it's hard to remember the days when all was sunny in Philadelphia. Since Week 13, the Eagles have fallen apart in tremendous fashion. They ended their season with a 1-5 record, including back-to-back losses against second-rate teams, the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants.

They now enter the playoffs as the No. 5 seed in the NFC and will go up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday in the Wild Card round. Can the Eagles salvage their once-stellar season, or were they frauds all along?

Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +1400 to win Super Bowl LVIII (sixth-best)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 2.1% (sixth-best)

Philadelphia Eagles Conference Championship Odds

• +750 (third-best)

Philadelphia Eagles Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted nERD rankings.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 8th
  • Passing: 11th
  • Overall: 9th
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 28th
  • Passing: 25th
  • Overall: 29th

Why The Eagles Could Win It All

The Eagles, despite their recent shortcomings, still have a booming offense. Going into Week 17, Jalen Hurts had the seventh-highest Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) and A.J. Brown ended his season with the fifth-most receiving yards in the league. DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and D'Andre Swift round out this standout offense.

The Birds have proven they can produce on offense even against the toughest of defensive opponent, toos. This season they played seven games against teams that rank in the top 10 of numberFire's defense rankings and averaged 23.3 points per contest.

When it comes to the postseason, something has to be said about how valuable experience can be. Hurts still possesses the experience and leadership qualities it took to lead his team to the Super Bowl last season, and only one other signal-caller to be featured in these NFC playoffs has made it that far before.

Plus, we can't forget that the Eagles were beating reputable teams such as the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills just as recently as November. An 11-game sample of dominant football could outweigh a 6-game sample of horrid football.

Teams hit bumps in the road. Just ask the Bills, who turned around their 5-5 record to the tune of an AFC East title win. Philadelphia's 10-1 start should mean something to us -- even if the games that followed were far too dreary to chalk it up to a dry spell. Regression could come for the Eagles, which would mean a return to their once bastion of a rush defense and awesome pressure rate numbers, which pairs perfectly with their rock-solid offense.

Philly has lowered the bar as of late, hitting rock bottom just in time for the playoffs. The combination of lower-than-should-be expectations and Super Bowl experience could be lethal. They are a team begging to be counted out, and we've seen how the Birds can rise to the occasion when it matters.

Why The Eagles Might Fall Short

When it comes playoff time, a solid offense is more prone to crumbling than a solid defense. If the Hurts-to-Brown connection is the main source of production that the Eagles can muster these playoffs, we won't be watching them for long.

The Eagles were once known for their defense. Last season, this team led the league in sacks by an incredibly high margin (70; next-best recorded 55 sacks). Through Week 10 of this season, the Birds were limiting opponents to just 66.0 rush yards per game. Since then, they've allowed a towering 108.1 rush yards per game.

Through their first 11 games, they were allowing 22.4 points per game. In the six games since, they've been surrendering 30.3 points per game. Philly's D dropped off so hard that they ended the season allowing the third-highest red zone scoring percentage (66.1%). Matt Patricia's new status as the de-factor DC has done nothing but hurt the playmaking decisions for this team. If the defense doesn't turn it around, the Eagles will have no shot to make any noise.

To add insult to injury, the Eagles will have to win on the road. Their raucous fanbase would come in handy had they secured a better seed than that of the No. 5, and their 5-4 road record isn't too pretty for a playoff team. Add in a potential matchup against the current Super Bowl favorites, the San Francisco 49ers, in the divisional round, and it seems the Birds 2023-24 season could be an unexpected wash.

Final Verdict

It's been a while since the Eagles have given us any reason to trust them. The coaching has simply not been there, and their defense has morphed into one of the worst in the league, ending this season with the fourth-worst rank, per numberFire.

Add in a journey that could feature both the 49ers and the Cowboys, and Philadelphia's path to the Super Bowl looks more and more hazy.

If Philly's D can pull it together and look like they did in the aughts of this season, then they should be able to compete. But the injury report has not been kind to this team, and the Birds seem more disconnected as a unit than ever.

While it's hard to count out a team that can be quite gritty and pushed their way to the Big Game just last season, the 5.56% implied probability on their +1700 Super Bowl odds may be granting them too much credit. numberFire has their Super Bowl LVIII win probability at just 2.1% for a reason.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.