After an up and down season, the Miami Dolphins will enter the playoffs as the sixth seed in the AFC after falling at the final hurdle and surrendering the AFC East to the Buffalo Bills in Week 18.

Sunday night's loss was the continuation of a worrying trend that defined that Dolphins' regular season -- they struggle against better teams and excel against lesser opposition. Against non-playoff teams this season, the Dolphins are 10-1; against teams that made the playoffs, they are 1-5.

For Miami to win the Super Bowl, they have to reverse that trend immediately. As the sixth seed, they will most likely have to win multiple road games against their fellow title contenders to even make the big game. The Dolphins are 4-4 on the road this season with all four of their losses coming against teams that made the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +1600 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (seventh-best)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 1.5% (eighth-best)

Miami Dolphins Conference Championship Odds

• +800 (fourth-best)

Miami Dolphins Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 10th
  • Passing: 4th
  • Overall: 5th
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 16th
  • Passing: 10th
  • Overall: 12th

Why The Dolphins Could Win It All

The talent is there. Despite their recent run of poor results, the Dolphins rank fifth in numberFire's Power Rankings. They are the sixth seed in the AFC, but the metrics indicate that they are a top-five team. The Kansas City Chiefs, Miami's opponent on Super Wild Card Weekend, rank sixth.

The Dolphins are not your average sixth seed. They rank 4th in passing offense, per numberFire, and 10th in rushing, for an overall ranking of 5th. Their defense is worse, but still ranks 12th overall, and is a top-ten unit against the pass. On numberFire's nERD metric, the Dolphins are in a mini-tier of their own, below the top-four teams, but well above the Detroit Lions in seventh. Overall, they are closer to being a true contender than an also-ran.

The other reason why Miami could win it all is the relative weakness of the AFC as a whole. Entering the season, the expectation was that the AFC would be extremely competitive, and the top teams would have very few weaknesses. That has not panned out. All three of the AFC's top seeds enter the playoffs with legitimate concerns.

The Chiefs had their worst regular season in the Patrick Mahomes era and while their defense is improved from last season, their offense, which ranks 10th, per numberFire, has taken a step back. The Bills ended their season on a high note but are far from an invincible side. Their wins against the Chargers (two points) and Patriots (six points) were far from convincing, and they have multiple terrible losses on their resume. The Ravens are much closer to a complete team, but they lack postseason experience. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in his previous playoff appearances.

It won't be easy, but there is a path for the Dolphins to win the AFC and make the Super Bowl. From there, it's one game, and anything is possible.

Why The Dolphins Might Fall Short

When looking for reasons why the Dolphins might not get the job done, you don't have to look any further than their regular season struggles. For Miami to win the Super Bowl they will have to reverse a trend that defined their season -- losses to contending teams.

Any path that starts with having to achieve something for the first time is a difficult one. For Miami to win the Super Bowl, they will likely have to earn their first, second, and possibly third road win against elite opposition this season.

The Dolphins most likely path to the Super Bowl includes road games against the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens. In the regular season, the Dolphins were a 0-4 against those teams with a combined scoreline of 67-146 -- a minus 79-point differential. Their playoff path is a house of horrors, forcing them to confront the same teams and situations that they struggled with the most during the regular season.

Another reason Miami might fall short is injuries. At this point in the season, every team is dealing with injuries, but Miami enters the postseason with injuries to multiple key players on both sides of the ball. On defense, Jalen Phillips (Achilles) and Bradley Chubb (knee) is out for the season, and Xavien Howard (foot) missed Week 18. On offense, both Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert haven't played since Week 16.

Even at full strength, the Dolphins struggled against better teams this season. Injuries on both sides of the ball, combined with an extremely difficult projected path to the Super Bowl, could be too much for Miami to overcome.

Final Verdict

The 2023 Dolphins are an interesting team. Their highs have been extremely high and when healthy, they have the roster to go toe-to-toe with any team in the league. In any individual game, they feel like they are capable of getting a victory and feel like a team you would prefer to avoid playing against if possible.

Zooming out, their late-season collapse has made their path to a Super Bowl an extremely difficult one. To reach their ultimate goal, they will have to overcome their primary point of failure from the regular season not once, not twice, but very likely three times, and that's just to reach the Super Bowl. They also might have to do so at far less than full strength due to multiple injuries to key players.

The Dolphins are a dangerous opening-round foe for a Chiefs team that has legitimate concerns of their own, but in terms of a Super Bowl, I believe that is too large of a mountain to climb. There is tremendous value in hosting playoffs games and being healthy for the postseason. Miami will enjoy no such advantage.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.