The Houston Texans thrilling 23-19 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18, combined with the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans, saw them crowned AFC South champions. With the win they earned the fourth seed in the AFC.

Not a bad outcome for the first year of a rebuild, but is this team capable of more? Possibly.

The future is bright for this Texans' team, but they face an uphill battle to win a Super Bowl this season. They have limited experience against playoff caliber teams and enter the postseason ranked 15th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

Houston Texans Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +7000 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (11th-best)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 0.5% (11th-best)

Houston Texans Conference Championship Odds

• +2500 (sixth-best)

Houston Texans Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 29th
  • Passing: 8th
  • Overall: 15th
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 2nd
  • Passing: 20th
  • Overall: 19th

Why The Texans Could Win It All

From what they've shown so far this season, the Texans' strengths and weaknesses are aligned to produce close games.

Their strengths are their passing game and their run defense. With rookie C.J. Stroud under center and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik at the helm, Houston has engineered a passing attack that ranks eighth, per numberFire. They are only slightly behind the Los Angeles Rams' passing game and slightly ahead of the passing games of both the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers; that's solid company.

A strong passing game allows Houston to both jump out ahead of opponents and recover if they are forced to come from behind. A strong run defense aids that by keeping teams from easily possessing the ball and running out the clock if they do pull ahead on Houston. Unfortunately, the Texans' weaknesses, a run game that ranks 29th and a pass defense that ranks 20th, will make it difficult for them to produce a lead if they do get one.

It all adds up to a Texans' team that, for better or worse, should play tight games. Overall, that's a good thing for an underdog team looking to defy the odds as longshot.

Houston could also win it all with continued growth from their young players in the first trip to the postseason. Houston has already overachieved this season, defying expectations to win the AFC South in the first year of their rebuild under DeMeco Ryans. While inexperience can certainly work against a team, there is a potential benefit in the unknown for a team looking to overcome long odds.

If Stroud, Nico Collins, Will Anderson Jr., and others elevate their games, they could elevate Houston's metrics above the one-season sample size we've seen with this roster so far.

Would that be enough to win a Super Bowl? Maybe not; they are extreme longshots for a reason, but it could certainly be enough for them to upset the Cleveland Browns as 2.5-point home underdogs and enter their next game with a ton of confidence and little to lose. One game at a time.

Why The Texans Might Fall Short

Winning a Super Bowl in the first year of a rebuild is unheard of. Houston is way ahead of schedule, but they are far from the level of the top remaining teams.

They rank 15th overall in numberFire's schedule-adjusted power rankings. That's the second-lowest ranking of the 14 teams in the playoffs -- ahead of only the Philadelphia Eagles (17th). While their passing game and run defense is a bright spot, they don't rank inside the top 14 in overall offense or defense.

They are one of only two teams in the playoffs that don't rank inside the top 10 in either overall offense or defense. The other is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who still rank ahead of Houston in both categories.

Another obstacle for Houston will be their lack of experience against better opponents. The Texans faced a favorable schedule this season, with just two games against teams that finished the season ranked inside the top 10 in numberFire's power rankings. They went 1-1 in those games, a 25-9 loss to the Ravens in Week 1 and a 20-13 win over the Saints in Week 6.

Assuming they upset Cleveland, the Texans' most likely path to the Super Bowl would see them face Baltimore and Buffalo on the road -- far from an ideal situation to face an elite opponent for only the second and third time this season.

Houston also doesn't stack up well against Baltimore or Buffalo. Both teams are better at defending the pass than the run and both rank inside the top nine in passing offense, allowing them to limit the strength of the Texans' offense and exploit the weakness of their defense.

The playoffs are a step up in competition, and Houston is simply still a clear tier or two below the true contenders for this year's Super Bowl.

Final Verdict

All in all, the Texans are longshots to win the Super Bowl for a reason, and it is unlikely that they do so.

They have had a fantastic season, but they are the second-worst team remaining, according to numberFire, and their record during the regular season was built primarily against teams that have already been eliminated.

That should not take away from what this team accomplished this season and what they will have an excellent chance to accomplish in the future -- but this year is likely too soon to expect this young roster to achieve the ultimate goal.

Any experience gained this postseason will be immensely valuable for Stroud and the rest of Houston's roster.

Hosting a playoff game is a near fairytale ending to a season that began with plenty of unknowns, but winning the Super Bowl would be the stuff of legends, and that will almost certainly have to wait for a future season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.