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Best Bets for NFL Week 8

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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Best Bets for NFL Week 8

Week 8 is the return of the big spread.

As of Tuesday afternoon, we've got three games with a spread of at least 9.5 points in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, and three more are sitting at a touchdown or higher.

Considering we had just 13 total spreads of a touchdown or more on a Tuesday through Week 7, it's a big deviation.

It's going to force us to make some tough choices.

In some instances, the spreads are fair. My model actually has the Detroit Lions (-10.5) and the Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) as slight values. There, you can either lay it or walk away.

But if you want to take the points on one of those big spreads, you're doing so with a bad team. And betting on bad teams is not for the faint of heart.

I do think one of those bottom-dwellers is worth a look, though, as a quality value. Let's start things off there before diving into other bets I like across the entirety of Week 8.

NFL Week 8 Betting Picks

Jets at Patriots

Patriots +7 (-110)

Spread

New England Patriots
Oct 27 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The vibes are bad with the New England Patriots. After a loss in London, Jerod Mayo called his team "soft," earning him a rebuke from his former head coach, Bill Belichick. They're also at a travel disadvantage despite playing at home.

But do bad vibes matter when the opposing team is frolicking in the muck with them?

That's what we get here with the New York Jets now 2-5 after a second-half drubbing at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The loss was bad enough, but it also came with several injuries to the Jets' secondary, which could carry over into this week.

As for those Patriots, the timing of the "soft" comments is unfortunate as Drake Maye has given this offense a jolt of life. It hasn't mattered because the defense has gotten shredded in both of his starts, but Maye has led the Patriots to 21 and 16 points, their most and third-most points of the year, respectively.

My model bakes in a bump for Maye as he has been more efficient than Jacoby Brissett, and that bump makes the Jets 4.1-point favorites here. But even if I remove the bump, that spread is still 5.7, so I can't get anywhere close to a touchdown in a low-total game in Foxboro.

I've got value in the Patriots' moneyline at +290, as well, so it's definitely on the table to swing for the fences. But I'm content to take the points here in what projects to be a low-scoring game despite the issues of each defense.

Bills at Seahawks

Bills -3 (-115)

Spread

Oct 27 8:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

This spread was the Buffalo Bills -3 yesterday before news that D.K. Metcalf was week-to-week with a knee sprain. Laying the three went from -105 to -115, but I think it should have come off of three entirely.

Although the Seattle Seahawks can be an efficient offense without Metcalf, it kills their explosiveness. Their lone players capable of splash plays are Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III, and now they won't have their only field-stretcher. It's a legit downgrade.

As for the Bills, despite their wonkiness, they're still ranked fourth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. That's while having just 11 routes out of Amari Cooper in that sample, a workload that should expand here.

The Bills have a diverse offense that can beat you through the air or on the ground, and the Seahawks -- despite playing better last week -- are still not fully healthy on defense. That's enough for me to lay the three even with this game being in Seattle.

Ravens at Browns

Total Over 44.5 Points (-110)

Total Match Points

Over
Oct 27 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

As of now, I'm projecting Jameis Winston to start due to Dorian Thompson-Robinson's finger injury. If that changes later in the week, my interest in the over would go down a bit.

This one's mostly about the other side of the ball, though.

After another absolute banger effort in Week 7, the Baltimore Ravens now lead the league in early-down EPA and late-down success rate. They've scored 28 points by themselves in five straight games, including a pair of 40-burgers.

If they can do that again, we won't need a ton out of the Cleveland Browns to get there.

It did come in garbage time, but Winston was willing to let it rip in Week 7. He had a Jameis-esque 11.4-yard aDOT, and long balls are either incompletions or chunk gains, both of which are good for overs. Thus, with Marlon Humphrey also banged up and minimal wind in the forecast, I've got this total closer to 47 than 44.5.

Panthers at Broncos

Total Under 43.5 (-115)

Total Match Points

Under
Oct 27 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Carolina Panthers' defense is an absolute nightmare, so in theory, I understand why the total is this high.

But all three other units in this game point to an under, and I'm willing to go that direction.

The Panthers' and Denver Broncos' offenses are both bottom-10 offenses by numberFire's metrics, sitting 29th and 25th, respectively. Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense is a true force, ranking second overall and first against the pass.

Unless they get some defensive touchdowns, I have a hard time seeing this game get to 44 points.

Even baking in the possibility of defensive scores, my model has this total at 39.8. That's a big enough cushion for me to take the under despite how bad Carolina's defense has been.


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Which bets stand out to you in Week 8? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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